What are people doing with Justin Fields, buying or selling?

[FantasyFreak]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

To be fair, a year ago you didn't believe Hurts was going to sniff the level of play he eventually hit despite me saying all of the exact reasons that you're now giving me to explain why he did break out. Hurts improvement was not an outlier. It was a breakout that many were actually predicting. Now, Josh Allen's breakout was an outlier.

I'm not saying the Bears are the 2023 Eagles, I'm just saying that Fields is in an optimal position to make a similar statistical jump in his game. It doesn't matter that D.J. Moore isn't better than A.J. Brown. What matters is:

+ Moore is vastly better than any WR they had on their roster last season and is a legitimate go-to guy.
+ Claypool and Mooney are both credible as a #2 or #3.
+ They improved their offensive line noticeably. Braxton Jones is a very good LT and they just spent a Top-10 pick on a really good RT prospect.
+ RB talent is deeper
+ TE talent is deeper
+ 2nd year of the offense, which is typically a plus for QBs.
+ The likelihood that the Bears pass play percentage will be at 43% is basically zero.

This is a team that made moves to set the offense up to pass more and be more dynamic. It would not shock me if Fields is once again a Top-5 QB and even finishes in the Top 3 range.

This is true, but you have to admit the Bears don't have nearly as much going for Fields and Hurts did. I can see an improvement, just not one that's puts him in MVP voting.

[wickerkat1212]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

To be fair, a year ago you didn't believe Hurts was going to sniff the level of play he eventually hit despite me saying all of the exact reasons that you're now giving me to explain why he did break out. Hurts improvement was not an outlier. It was a breakout that many were actually predicting. Now, Josh Allen's breakout was an outlier.

I'm not saying the Bears are the 2023 Eagles, I'm just saying that Fields is in an optimal position to make a similar statistical jump in his game. It doesn't matter that D.J. Moore isn't better than A.J. Brown. What matters is:

+ Moore is vastly better than any WR they had on their roster last season and is a legitimate go-to guy.
+ Claypool and Mooney are both credible as a #2 or #3.
+ They improved their offensive line noticeably. Braxton Jones is a very good LT and they just spent a Top-10 pick on a really good RT prospect.
+ RB talent is deeper
+ TE talent is deeper
+ 2nd year of the offense, which is typically a plus for QBs.
+ The likelihood that the Bears pass play percentage will be at 43% is basically zero.

This is a team that made moves to set the offense up to pass more and be more dynamic. It would not shock me if Fields is once again a Top-5 QB and even finishes in the Top 3 range.

Agree. All of this.

[wickerkat1212]

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

To be fair, a year ago you didn't believe Hurts was going to sniff the level of play he eventually hit despite me saying all of the exact reasons that you're now giving me to explain why he did break out. Hurts improvement was not an outlier. It was a breakout that many were actually predicting. Now, Josh Allen's breakout was an outlier.

I'm not saying the Bears are the 2023 Eagles, I'm just saying that Fields is in an optimal position to make a similar statistical jump in his game. It doesn't matter that D.J. Moore isn't better than A.J. Brown. What matters is:

+ Moore is vastly better than any WR they had on their roster last season and is a legitimate go-to guy.
+ Claypool and Mooney are both credible as a #2 or #3.
+ They improved their offensive line noticeably. Braxton Jones is a very good LT and they just spent a Top-10 pick on a really good RT prospect.
+ RB talent is deeper
+ TE talent is deeper
+ 2nd year of the offense, which is typically a plus for QBs.
+ The likelihood that the Bears pass play percentage will be at 43% is basically zero.

This is a team that made moves to set the offense up to pass more and be more dynamic. It would not shock me if Fields is once again a Top-5 QB and even finishes in the Top 3 range.

This is true, but you have to admit the Bears don't have nearly as much going for Fields and Hurts did. I can see an improvement, just not one that's puts him in MVP voting.

I don't think anyone said MVP voting LOL just that he has room to improve. IF he can put this all together, he's going to be VERY good from a fantasy POV. He was already QB8 last year. How much better does he have to get to earn some respect and be a target for QB1 in fantasy leagues? Better WRs. Better OL. Better RBs. Better DEF. HAS to improve IMO. Unless you (any of you) think he's a bust. I don't.

[FantasyFreak]

To be fair, a year ago you didn't believe Hurts was going to sniff the level of play he eventually hit despite me saying all of the exact reasons that you're now giving me to explain why he did break out. Hurts improvement was not an outlier. It was a breakout that many were actually predicting. Now, Josh Allen's breakout was an outlier.

I'm not saying the Bears are the 2023 Eagles, I'm just saying that Fields is in an optimal position to make a similar statistical jump in his game. It doesn't matter that D.J. Moore isn't better than A.J. Brown. What matters is:

+ Moore is vastly better than any WR they had on their roster last season and is a legitimate go-to guy.
+ Claypool and Mooney are both credible as a #2 or #3.
+ They improved their offensive line noticeably. Braxton Jones is a very good LT and they just spent a Top-10 pick on a really good RT prospect.
+ RB talent is deeper
+ TE talent is deeper
+ 2nd year of the offense, which is typically a plus for QBs.
+ The likelihood that the Bears pass play percentage will be at 43% is basically zero.

This is a team that made moves to set the offense up to pass more and be more dynamic. It would not shock me if Fields is once again a Top-5 QB and even finishes in the Top 3 range.

This is true, but you have to admit the Bears don't have nearly as much going for Fields and Hurts did. I can see an improvement, just not one that's puts him in MVP voting.

I don't think anyone said MVP voting LOL just that he has room to improve. IF he can put this all together, he's going to be VERY good from a fantasy POV. He was already QB8 last year. How much better does he have to get to earn some respect and be a target for QB1 in fantasy leagues? Better WRs. Better OL. Better RBs. Better DEF. HAS to improve IMO. Unless you (any of you) think he's a bust. I don't.

I don't think he's a very good QB. For FF, sure. However his price is at a point in SF leagues where I'm out. I just don't believe in him long term.

[wickerkat1212]

This is true, but you have to admit the Bears don't have nearly as much going for Fields and Hurts did. I can see an improvement, just not one that's puts him in MVP voting.

I don't think anyone said MVP voting LOL just that he has room to improve. IF he can put this all together, he's going to be VERY good from a fantasy POV. He was already QB8 last year. How much better does he have to get to earn some respect and be a target for QB1 in fantasy leagues? Better WRs. Better OL. Better RBs. Better DEF. HAS to improve IMO. Unless you (any of you) think he's a bust. I don't.

I don't think he's a very good QB. For FF, sure. However his price is at a point in SF leagues where I'm out. I just don't believe in him long term.

That's fair. Being here in Chicago I have watched him a lot. I do think he's a good QB, but he had a horrible 1st year (bad coaching and schemes and no talent didn't help). I saw a lot of improvement last year. He set some NFL RECORDS. This is really going to be the year. He has to get better, and win, and elevate in almost every phase of his passing game. I for one am excited to watch. I think DJM is going to make a big difference, and maybe Scott too.

[oneson9192]

I know there's already been plenty of talk about Fields' lack of weapons in Chicago, but I think this really emphasizes it quite well:

The absolute BEST WR corps Justin Fields has had in any single start since entering the NFL is likely week 11 of last season against the Falcons. This was in the small window after the Claypool trade and before Mooney's season ending injury, and marks the most shared playing time those two had. Here are the WR snap %s for that game:

1) Darnell Mooney - 81% (left in 3rd Q with injury)
2) Equanimeous St Brown - 72%
3) Chase Claypool - 42% (was still learning the playbook)
4) Dante Pettis - 26%
5) Byron Pringle - 20%
6) Velus Jones - 12%

...in other words...

Justin Fields' best WR corps in his NFL career was three quarters of Mooney, a half of Claypool, and meaningful snaps from a pair of guys who likely won't sniff an NFL roster ever again. And I'm not cherry picking some late-season week with a bunch of injuries so I can make jokes about Nsimbia Webster and N'Keal Harry here; this was as good as it ever got for Fields in his first 2 seasons.

If all goes according to plan, Justin Fields will start week 1 of the 2023 season with this WR corps:

1) DJ Moore
2) Darnell Mooney
3) Chase Claypool
4-6) Tyler Scott, ESB, Velus Jones

I'm buying - even at cost.

[wickerkat1212]

I know there's already been plenty of talk about Fields' lack of weapons in Chicago, but I think this really emphasizes it quite well:

The absolute BEST WR corps Justin Fields has had in any single start since entering the NFL is likely week 11 of last season against the Falcons. This was in the small window after the Claypool trade and before Mooney's season ending injury, and marks the most shared playing time those two had. Here are the WR snap %s for that game:

1) Darnell Mooney - 81% (left in 3rd Q with injury)
2) Equanimeous St Brown - 72%
3) Chase Claypool - 42% (was still learning the playbook)
4) Dante Pettis - 26%
5) Byron Pringle - 20%
6) Velus Jones - 12%

...in other words...

Justin Fields' best WR corps in his NFL career was three quarters of Mooney, a half of Claypool, and meaningful snaps from a pair of guys who likely won't sniff an NFL roster ever again. And I'm not cherry picking some late-season week with a bunch of injuries so I can make jokes about Nsimbia Webster and N'Keal Harry here; this was as good as it ever got for Fields in his first 2 seasons.

If all goes according to plan, Justin Fields will start week 1 of the 2023 season with this WR corps:

1) DJ Moore
2) Darnell Mooney
3) Chase Claypool
4-6) Tyler Scott, ESB, Velus Jones

I'm buying - even at cost.

Right? AND DJM is the exact kind of WR1 that Fields needs. Scott, too.

[MFundercover]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

[wickerkat1212]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

Yep. This.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't think anyone said MVP voting LOL just that he has room to improve. IF he can put this all together, he's going to be VERY good from a fantasy POV. He was already QB8 last year. How much better does he have to get to earn some respect and be a target for QB1 in fantasy leagues? Better WRs. Better OL. Better RBs. Better DEF. HAS to improve IMO. Unless you (any of you) think he's a bust. I don't.

I don't think he's a very good QB. For FF, sure. However his price is at a point in SF leagues where I'm out. I just don't believe in him long term.

That's fair. Being here in Chicago I have watched him a lot. I do think he's a good QB, but he had a horrible 1st year (bad coaching and schemes and no talent didn't help). I saw a lot of improvement last year. He set some NFL RECORDS. This is really going to be the year. He has to get better, and win, and elevate in almost every phase of his passing game. I for one am excited to watch. I think DJM is going to make a big difference, and maybe Scott too.

He set NFL rushing records. Good for him. His rushing from last year isn't sustainable year to year. There aren't going to be that many breakaway runs. He needs to develop as a passer, and DJM may certainly help. I still worry about how he reads the game, but we shall see. I wouldn't count on a day 3 WR in his rookie year being a difference maker for him. This will be an interesting year for the Bears.

[Cameron Giles]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

Spot on.

There's some overthinking going on with rushing QBs. As long as you are very good to elite in providing rushing value, you have a high floor at the position. Being an average passer sustains that and will give you some big time blowup weeks.

[wickerkat1212]

I don't think he's a very good QB. For FF, sure. However his price is at a point in SF leagues where I'm out. I just don't believe in him long term.

That's fair. Being here in Chicago I have watched him a lot. I do think he's a good QB, but he had a horrible 1st year (bad coaching and schemes and no talent didn't help). I saw a lot of improvement last year. He set some NFL RECORDS. This is really going to be the year. He has to get better, and win, and elevate in almost every phase of his passing game. I for one am excited to watch. I think DJM is going to make a big difference, and maybe Scott too.

He set NFL rushing records. Good for him. His rushing from last year isn't sustainable year to year. There aren't going to be that many breakaway runs. He needs to develop as a passer, and DJM may certainly help. I still worry about how he reads the game, but we shall see. I wouldn't count on a day 3 WR in his rookie year being a difference maker for him. This will be an interesting year for the Bears.

Agree, he has to be a better passer, I think we ALL feel that way. DJM will for SURE help. And Scott, I just think he's a nice weapon. I have him as the WR4, and behind DJM, Mooney, and Claypool the WR room is MUCH improved.

[wickerkat1212]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

Spot on.

There's some overthinking going on with rushing QBs. As long as you are very good to elite in providing rushing value, you have a high floor at the position. Being an average passer sustains that and will give you some big time blowup weeks.

Yep. And we need to remember you can be an average NFL QB and be an elite fantasy QB. They can, and sometimes are, two very different things. I think he's going to improve in a LOT of categories.

[wickerkat1212]

DBB has a really good eight-part series on Fields. Optimistic is the vibe I'm getting.

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/fields ... -takeaways

[frerichs5]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

Spot on.

There's some overthinking going on with rushing QBs. As long as you are very good to elite in providing rushing value, you have a high floor at the position. Being an average passer sustains that and will give you some big time blowup weeks.

I’m not sure anyone is arguing with these two posts. I think most agree he is elite for fantasy right now. My concern is that he hasn’t even been an “average passer” yet. He still has to become that, not remain that. Maybe these off-season changes help that, maybe they won’t. Time will tell.