Ah, completely misread that. Makes much more sense now!Ice wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:27 pmJust to set the record straight, I am pretty sure I said 70 RECEPTIONS not targets. If he plays great he will be around 110 targets to hit that number.frerichs5 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:19 pm Apologize for off topic a little, but I don’t get the top out at 70 targets in a good year for Addison. Theilen and KJ Osborn both averaged the same 5.8/week (64 total each) in the 11 games with Hock there. That’s a 17 game pace of 98-99 targets for option #3 and option #4 in that offense. I’d argue Addison’s talent will demand more than those two, but even if not…seems closer to 100 is a better number. Unless you’re betting on a major drop off in number of pass attempts.
Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
frerichs5 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:34 pmAh, completely misread that. Makes much more sense now!Ice wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:27 pmJust to set the record straight, I am pretty sure I said 70 RECEPTIONS not targets. If he plays great he will be around 110 targets to hit that number.frerichs5 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:19 pm Apologize for off topic a little, but I don’t get the top out at 70 targets in a good year for Addison. Theilen and KJ Osborn both averaged the same 5.8/week (64 total each) in the 11 games with Hock there. That’s a 17 game pace of 98-99 targets for option #3 and option #4 in that offense. I’d argue Addison’s talent will demand more than those two, but even if not…seems closer to 100 is a better number. Unless you’re betting on a major drop off in number of pass attempts.
![Thumbup :thumbup:](./images/smilies/icon_thumbup.gif)
Easy to do. We all have done that before.
Good Luck!
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14436
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
It's very interesting how ho-hum the perception of Addison is when players with his production profile and draft capital are usually pretty good WRs. Plus, he landed in a great situation where he can immediately compete for T-24 value and will never see primary coverage.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:28 pm I agree with the notion that Addison profiles as a WR2 for the NFL (JJ all but guarantees that in for the foreseeable future) and a WR2/3 for fantasy. Sure, there are Devonta Smiths of the world who are just that talented and can hit low end WR1 numbers for fantasy, but I don't expect that from most.
I also agree that Mingo/Tillman could hit the WR1 upside, but they have a much lower shot of doing this than Addison does at being a solid WR2 at least imo. All about team building and risk tolerance. Higher floor/Low Ceiling vs Boom/bust
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 27657
- Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Along with Devonta, Tee Higgins has the same benefit. It's not a bad thing, if you have a QB that can support it, and Cousins can.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 9:19 amIt's very interesting how ho-hum the perception of Addison is when players with his production profile and draft capital are usually pretty good WRs. Plus, he landed in a great situation where he can immediately compete for T-24 value and will never see primary coverage.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:28 pm I agree with the notion that Addison profiles as a WR2 for the NFL (JJ all but guarantees that in for the foreseeable future) and a WR2/3 for fantasy. Sure, there are Devonta Smiths of the world who are just that talented and can hit low end WR1 numbers for fantasy, but I don't expect that from most.
I also agree that Mingo/Tillman could hit the WR1 upside, but they have a much lower shot of doing this than Addison does at being a solid WR2 at least imo. All about team building and risk tolerance. Higher floor/Low Ceiling vs Boom/bust
Janiel Dones Truther
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Agreed. I think the possibility Addison hits his numbers are way higher than QJ.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:37 amAlong with Devonta, Tee Higgins has the same benefit. It's not a bad thing, if you have a QB that can support it, and Cousins can.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 9:19 amIt's very interesting how ho-hum the perception of Addison is when players with his production profile and draft capital are usually pretty good WRs. Plus, he landed in a great situation where he can immediately compete for T-24 value and will never see primary coverage.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:28 pm I agree with the notion that Addison profiles as a WR2 for the NFL (JJ all but guarantees that in for the foreseeable future) and a WR2/3 for fantasy. Sure, there are Devonta Smiths of the world who are just that talented and can hit low end WR1 numbers for fantasy, but I don't expect that from most.
I also agree that Mingo/Tillman could hit the WR1 upside, but they have a much lower shot of doing this than Addison does at being a solid WR2 at least imo. All about team building and risk tolerance. Higher floor/Low Ceiling vs Boom/bust
Currently going back and forth on Addison Vs Flowers. QJ is my clear #4
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
No issues with Addison's floor as it is quite high. The concern I have is his ceiling.. He does have a low bust factor so is a safe pick to add to a roster.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:42 amAgreed. I think the possibility Addison hits his numbers are way higher than QJ.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:37 amAlong with Devonta, Tee Higgins has the same benefit. It's not a bad thing, if you have a QB that can support it, and Cousins can.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 9:19 am
It's very interesting how ho-hum the perception of Addison is when players with his production profile and draft capital are usually pretty good WRs. Plus, he landed in a great situation where he can immediately compete for T-24 value and will never see primary coverage.
Currently going back and forth on Addison Vs Flowers. QJ is my clear #4
I simply don't see a legit #1 fantasy WR.
There are 16 players that had between 70 and 79 receptions last season. 9 had 100 or more with JJ leading the way at 128.
No two players were on the same team in 100 category.
37 players had 70 plus receptions.
There is a ceiling to really consider with this player, given his landing spot, unless you think he will take away from Jefferson.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts
- wickerkat1212
- Legend
- Posts: 6233
- Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
- Contact:
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Current ADP on MFL, and range of picks:
Mingo #16 overall, earliest 3, latest 49
Tillman #30 overall, earliest 10, latest 65
Reed #27 overall, earliest 14, latest 52
and FWIW Rice #20 overall, earliest 6, latest 45
Mingo #16 overall, earliest 3, latest 49
Tillman #30 overall, earliest 10, latest 65
Reed #27 overall, earliest 14, latest 52
and FWIW Rice #20 overall, earliest 6, latest 45
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Jefferson, Tucker TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Jefferson, Tucker TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
- Forza_Azzurri
- Pro Bowler
- Posts: 1282
- Joined: Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:52 am
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
The Mingo Family Dynasty League shouldn't be included in ADPs.wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:55 am Current ADP on MFL, and range of picks:
Mingo #16 overall, earliest 3, latest 49
Tillman #30 overall, earliest 10, latest 65
Reed #27 overall, earliest 14, latest 52
and FWIW Rice #20 overall, earliest 6, latest 45
- wickerkat1212
- Legend
- Posts: 6233
- Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
- Contact:
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
LOL I know I saw that, crazyForza_Azzurri wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 1:12 pmThe Mingo Family Dynasty League shouldn't be included in ADPs.wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:55 am Current ADP on MFL, and range of picks:
Mingo #16 overall, earliest 3, latest 49
Tillman #30 overall, earliest 10, latest 65
Reed #27 overall, earliest 14, latest 52
and FWIW Rice #20 overall, earliest 6, latest 45
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Jefferson, Tucker TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Jefferson, Tucker TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
-
- Degenerate
- Posts: 7557
- Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
I don't see Tillman as a DPJ replacement but Cooper, based on play style. Additionally, Cleveland is 51mil over the cap next year but can clear 12.5 by cutting Cooper, or 20 if post June 1 next year. That ignores another renegotiation.halfbaked88 wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:59 am I'm not against taking a shot on Mingo. Or Tillman or Reed.
If I had to pick today as a rebuilder, I'm probably taking Mingo solely because the community values him the most and then I'm selling as soon as he has some good games.
If I'm drafting to keep, or contending now or soon, I think Tillman has the best QB of the three. DPJ is on the last year of his contract and Tillman almost serves as a direct drop-in replacement penciled in for the role. Tillman was playing alongside other NFL talent WR (Hyatt) and unlike Hyatt, who was lining up in gadget roles and routes, Tillman was running real routes as the outside WR.
Reed may got lost in a committee. And I have no idea if Jordan Love is any good. They just gave him a 1 year extension... one year... doesn't sound too confident to me. GB could be worse than we've seen them in a long, long time.
Tillman's opportunity runs through Cooper.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def
League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 27657
- Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Forza_Azzurri wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 1:12 pmThe Mingo Family Dynasty League shouldn't be included in ADPs.wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:55 am Current ADP on MFL, and range of picks:
Mingo #16 overall, earliest 3, latest 49
Tillman #30 overall, earliest 10, latest 65
Reed #27 overall, earliest 14, latest 52
and FWIW Rice #20 overall, earliest 6, latest 45
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
![Clapping :clap:](./images/smilies/icon_clap.gif)
Janiel Dones Truther
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Foodie. Well done steak goes in the trash.
Habaneros make the best tasting hot sauce. Throwing a bunch of random stuff on top of fries doesn't mean you call it "poutine".
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Probably a devy league
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Except, I don't wanna spend 1.5 - 1.8 on a Devonta Smith. Which is where I see Addison going.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:37 am Along with Devonta, Tee Higgins has the same benefit. It's not a bad thing, if you have a QB that can support it, and Cousins can.
If its TEP, I'll take Kincaid or trade out.
CONTENTION 2
QB - D.Prescott, J.Hurts
RB - J.Jacobs, C-Patt, JRob, BRob, D.Pierce, TDP, H.Haskins
WR - Ceedee, J.Jefferson, JuJu, A.Pierce, Meyers, NWI
TE - M.Andrews, Brevin, J.Woods, L.Thomas
Defense: Cowboys/Viks
CELEBRITY DEATHMATCH
QB - Mahomes, Cousins, Love, Mond, Rush, M.White, Strong
RB - C-Patt, Singletary, K.Herbert, Foreman, Hubbard, Lindsay
WR - Lockett, Hollywood, OBJ, Golladay, AJG, Hardman, Meyers, Osborn, ISM
TE - Kelsey, Ertz, G.Everett, Bryant
Taxi - BRob, TDP, Ingram, A.Smith, K.Phillips, Metchie, Shakir, Tolbert, Thorton, J.Woods, S.Thompson
ALL THE MARBLES
QB - TB12, J.Hurts, Stafford
RB - Ekeler, Zeke, C-Patt, Mack, Rhamondre, BRob, R.White, Foreman
WR - AJ Brown, London, Watson, A.Pierce, Burks, OBJ, Golladay, Amon-Ra, Marshall
TE - Gronk, T.Higbee, D.Arnold, Ebron
Defense: Bills/Saints
QB - D.Prescott, J.Hurts
RB - J.Jacobs, C-Patt, JRob, BRob, D.Pierce, TDP, H.Haskins
WR - Ceedee, J.Jefferson, JuJu, A.Pierce, Meyers, NWI
TE - M.Andrews, Brevin, J.Woods, L.Thomas
Defense: Cowboys/Viks
CELEBRITY DEATHMATCH
QB - Mahomes, Cousins, Love, Mond, Rush, M.White, Strong
RB - C-Patt, Singletary, K.Herbert, Foreman, Hubbard, Lindsay
WR - Lockett, Hollywood, OBJ, Golladay, AJG, Hardman, Meyers, Osborn, ISM
TE - Kelsey, Ertz, G.Everett, Bryant
Taxi - BRob, TDP, Ingram, A.Smith, K.Phillips, Metchie, Shakir, Tolbert, Thorton, J.Woods, S.Thompson
ALL THE MARBLES
QB - TB12, J.Hurts, Stafford
RB - Ekeler, Zeke, C-Patt, Mack, Rhamondre, BRob, R.White, Foreman
WR - AJ Brown, London, Watson, A.Pierce, Burks, OBJ, Golladay, Amon-Ra, Marshall
TE - Gronk, T.Higbee, D.Arnold, Ebron
Defense: Bills/Saints
-
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 4079
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
Matt Harmon is positively gushing over Reed on twitter. He’s got a serious man crush on him. Nice to have someone like that reinforcing your decision if you drafted Reed like I did.
Re: Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed
I also would hate getting the WR9 last year for a mid-late 1st... if you think Addison is as good as Smith, then I would be smashing the draft button after Bijan/Gibbs/JSNJTLoh wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 6:54 amExcept, I don't wanna spend 1.5 - 1.8 on a Devonta Smith. Which is where I see Addison going.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:37 am Along with Devonta, Tee Higgins has the same benefit. It's not a bad thing, if you have a QB that can support it, and Cousins can.
If its TEP, I'll take Kincaid or trade out.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Farley, Mistakes Were Made and 8 guests