Isaiah Spiller to the LAC Chargers: 2nd Round Rookie Gem or future JAG?

[mild]

Some will (and have before) reference him being 21 as a positive, but age just doesn't matter for RB early on like it does WR. They either have it or they dont. Plus, hes not going to get any faster as he ages.

Yep, great point.

Being a young RB with Day 3 draft capital, who's bad or mediocre, isn't a good thing. Teams will move on from those in a year or two if they haven't done much. Drafting a "project" RB doesn't really make much sense in the NFL.

Meh. It doesn't really change things for us unless you're really in the crunch in a shallow roster league. You're taking a longer view than is necessary in this case. Of course the Chargers will keep drafting more players in the future. Yes, Spiller will get a chance and might not prove to be the guy - also in the future.

He's cheap labour through (up to?) 2025 on one of the best rosters in the league, at a position the Chargers are dying for answers for right now. He's either going to pop, or he isn't. We'll know soon enough, once he sees the field. If you're dropping a 21 year old rookie coming off injury after 3 weeks of season, then I don't really know what to tell you.

He might not get faster, but there's no denying that he's not fully "built" as an athlete yet. There are so many instances of players taking a leap of physicality in their 2nd years in the league. NFL level conditioning, dieting, training. Finally having the playbook and speed of the NFL game slowing down. We're talking about a 6"1 kid with a good SEC production profile weighing 215 lbs with soft hands, and adjusting to the pros.

It might take longer than 3 weeks. That's all I'm saying.

[Jigga94]

Some will (and have before) reference him being 21 as a positive, but age just doesn't matter for RB early on like it does WR. They either have it or they dont. Plus, hes not going to get any faster as he ages.

Yep, great point.

Being a young RB with Day 3 draft capital, who's bad or mediocre, isn't a good thing. Teams will move on from those in a year or two if they haven't done much. Drafting a "project" RB doesn't really make much sense in the NFL.

Meh. It doesn't really change things for us unless you're really in the crunch in a shallow roster league. You're taking a longer view than is necessary in this case. Of course the Chargers will keep drafting more players in the future. Yes, Spiller will get a chance and might not prove to be the guy - also in the future.

He's cheap labour through (up to?) 2025 on one of the best rosters in the league, at a position the Chargers are dying for answers for right now. He's either going to pop, or he isn't. We'll know soon enough, once he sees the field. If you're dropping a 21 year old rookie coming off injury after 3 weeks of season, then I don't really know what to tell you.

He might not get faster, but there's no denying that he's not fully "built" as an athlete yet. There are so many instances of players taking a leap of physicality in their 2nd years in the league. NFL level conditioning, dieting, training. Finally having the playbook and speed of the NFL game slowing down. We're talking about a 6"1 kid with a good SEC production profile weighing 215 lbs with soft hands, and adjusting to the pros.

It might take longer than 3 weeks. That's all I'm saying.

The long view is fine to have. Obviously, you shouldn't be dropping rookies after week 3 when they haven't got a shot. So it remains to be seen if he has it or not. My personal bet has been that he doesn't have it but that's just me. Day 3 RB are a longshot as is. Add in the athletic profile and it doesn't add up to me. Seems like he's being propped up by situation by some possibly, even though he's RB4 on the depth chart.

My main point is age really makes no difference here. The shelf life for RB is more about their contract than age. Which you alluded to with the cheap labor comment. Being younger doesn't mean you're more likely to succeed. If he were to light it up, then yes he's younger and in theory has more time before he hits 26/27 the RB age cliff that starts to devalue RB heavily. But the real cliff for RB that hit seems to be the 2nd contract after 4-5 years in the league. Looking that far down the line in dynasty is useless for RB

My valuation of him wouldn't really change if he was 23, it would be the exact same situation he's in now.

[mild]

Seems like he's being propped up by situation by some possibly, even though he's RB4 on the depth chart.

My main point is age really makes no difference here. The shelf life for RB is more about their contract than age. Which you alluded to with the cheap labor comment. Being younger doesn't mean you're more likely to succeed. If he were to light it up, then yes he's younger and in theory has more time before he hits 26/27 the RB age cliff that starts to devalue RB heavily. But the real cliff for RB that hit seems to be the 2nd contract after 4-5 years in the league. Looking that far down the line in dynasty is useless for RB

My valuation of him wouldn't really change if he was 23, it would be the exact same situation he's in now.

For sure - I'm just arguing the opposite angle of the age piece. Some players come in ready at an NFL level, physically, mentally. Others come in and struggle off the bat, before finding their feet (or not!) - so to me, the youngest player in the NFL struggling to adjust physically and mentally in the early going doesn't really surprise me.

You also hit on a key point. Yes, he is being propped up by situation. It's fine to say that that's a key reason to be in on him, and I've been consistent on that since day 1. As you say: the majority value for an RB is in the first 4-5 years in the league, which is always out of that player's control. It's hard to think of a better situation he could have landed on for the next 4 years.

Ageing incumbent starter with a major injury history. Top 10 OL. Top 5 dynasty QB in Herbert on his rookie deal.

If this kid seizes it, no matter how unlikely - he's setup for an -awesome- value spike, and I want to be holding if/when it happens.

ps. feel free to tell me about the other rookie RB's that have done anything of note this year through the first 3 weeks, and how you're dropping them too. It's Breece or bust thus far... let's be consistent out there.

[Jigga94]

Seems like he's being propped up by situation by some possibly, even though he's RB4 on the depth chart.

My main point is age really makes no difference here. The shelf life for RB is more about their contract than age. Which you alluded to with the cheap labor comment. Being younger doesn't mean you're more likely to succeed. If he were to light it up, then yes he's younger and in theory has more time before he hits 26/27 the RB age cliff that starts to devalue RB heavily. But the real cliff for RB that hit seems to be the 2nd contract after 4-5 years in the league. Looking that far down the line in dynasty is useless for RB

My valuation of him wouldn't really change if he was 23, it would be the exact same situation he's in now.

For sure - I'm just arguing the opposite angle of the age piece. Some players come in ready at an NFL level, physically, mentally. Others come in and struggle off the bat, before finding their feet (or not!) - so to me, the youngest player in the NFL struggling to adjust physically and mentally in the early going doesn't really surprise me.

You also hit on a key point. Yes, he is being propped up by situation. It's fine to say that that's a key reason to be in on him, and I've been consistent on that since day 1. As you say: the majority value for an RB is in the first 4-5 years in the league, which is always out of that player's control. It's hard to think of a better situation he could have landed on for the next 4 years.

Ageing incumbent starter with a major injury history. Top 10 OL. Top 5 dynasty QB in Herbert on his rookie deal.

If this kid seizes it, no matter how unlikely - he's setup for an -awesome- value spike, and I want to be holding if/when it happens.

ps. feel free to tell me about the other rookie RB's that have done anything of note this year through the first 3 weeks, and how you're dropping them too. It's Breece or bust thus far... let's be consistent out there.

I see your points here and I don't think you're wrong for having them, I just don't think there's enough juice here to squeeze from Spiller with Ekeler around on a cheap deal until 2024.

And you're 100% right on the other RB. Hall has looked good and Pierce is getting opportunity. Walker has been banged up so he gets a pass for some time. But there were little expectations from the rest of the class.

I'd love to be able to say Rachaad White is tearing it up and pushing Lenny for more snaps. But that's just not the case (though it was encouraging for him to get some work this week even after the opening fumble). We knew there would be a waiting game with most of these backs that weren't Hall, Walker, Pierce.

It's a little different than being the RB4 and not seeing the field at all though

[Space Cowboy]

He hasn't take a snap yet. Ahead of him are Kelley and Michel, not a good sign.

[Anteaters]

He hasn't take a snap yet. Ahead of him are Kelley and Michel, not a good sign.

Let's not forget that Derrick Henry split time with Demarco Murray and Dion Lewis for three season also. Some teams rush rookie RBs out there, and a few play the redshirt game. Belichick is a coach who likes for a RB to season for a year before giving him more touches.

I'm not saying Spiller will be as good as Henry. I'm just saying all hope isn't lost yet. It's too early to automatically call Spiller a bad fantasy player. Right now, we don't really know. It's not a great look, but it's not the kiss of death.

[frerichs5]

He hasn't take a snap yet. Ahead of him are Kelley and Michel, not a good sign.

Let's not forget that Derrick Henry split time with Demarco Murray and Dion Lewis for three season also. Some teams rush rookie RBs out there, and a few play the redshirt game. Belichick is a coach who likes for a RB to season for a year before giving him more touches.

I'm not saying Spiller will be as good as Henry. I'm just saying all hope isn't lost yet. It's too early to automatically call Spiller a bad fantasy player. Right now, we don't really know. It's not a great look, but it's not the kiss of death.

I agree things can still change. But splitting carries or being eased in is a lot different than not playing period.

[Jigga94]

He hasn't take a snap yet. Ahead of him are Kelley and Michel, not a good sign.

Let's not forget that Derrick Henry split time with Demarco Murray and Dion Lewis for three season also. Some teams rush rookie RBs out there, and a few play the redshirt game. Belichick is a coach who likes for a RB to season for a year before giving him more touches.

I'm not saying Spiller will be as good as Henry. I'm just saying all hope isn't lost yet. It's too early to automatically call Spiller a bad fantasy player. Right now, we don't really know. It's not a great look, but it's not the kiss of death.

I agree things can still change. But splitting carries or being eased in is a lot different than not playing period.

This was my point. Obviously it's still early but the RB transition is supposed to be less difficult than say QB or TE. For him to already be falling down the depth chart and not playing, is not good.

[FantasyFreak]

JAG/thread

[Anteaters]

Let's not forget that Derrick Henry split time with Demarco Murray and Dion Lewis for three season also. Some teams rush rookie RBs out there, and a few play the redshirt game. Belichick is a coach who likes for a RB to season for a year before giving him more touches.

I'm not saying Spiller will be as good as Henry. I'm just saying all hope isn't lost yet. It's too early to automatically call Spiller a bad fantasy player. Right now, we don't really know. It's not a great look, but it's not the kiss of death.

I agree things can still change. But splitting carries or being eased in is a lot different than not playing period.

This was my point. Obviously it's still early but the RB transition is supposed to be less difficult than say QB or TE. For him to already be falling down the depth chart and not playing, is not good.

I agree with both of you that it's not a good look. I think his depth chart position is based more on things like bad blocking and ball handling issues rather than lack of running/catching talent. With Ekeler healthy and a good fundamentally sound veteran backup, the team is smart to give Spiller the time he needs to work on those issues and not risk Herbert getting blown up because of a missed blocking assignment.

I'm okay with the depth chart disrespect. It'll build character.

[spider321]

Anyone know why Spiller isn't getting a chance to even be active on game days? The Chargers cannot run the ball, at all. As a team, they have a total of 258 rushing yards in 4 games, and a terrible 2.7 yards per carry.

Spiller may not be the answer, but why not find out?

[frerichs5]

Anyone know why Spiller isn't getting a chance to even be active on game days? The Chargers cannot run the ball, at all. As a team, they have a total of 258 rushing yards in 4 games, and a terrible 2.7 yards per carry.

Spiller may not be the answer, but why not find out?

They see him everyday in practice. We don’t. Have to assume they see something they don’t like, or simply believe the other guys are better.

[spider321]

Anyone know why Spiller isn't getting a chance to even be active on game days? The Chargers cannot run the ball, at all. As a team, they have a total of 258 rushing yards in 4 games, and a terrible 2.7 yards per carry.

Spiller may not be the answer, but why not find out?

They see him everyday in practice. We don’t. Have to assume they see something they don’t like, or simply believe the other guys are better.

That would be an acceptable answer, if the results through the first month were not so pitiful. I'm not saying Spiller should start, but obviously, what they are doing is not working.

I am reminded of the saying about the definition of insanity.

[Ice]

Anyone know why Spiller isn't getting a chance to even be active on game days? The Chargers cannot run the ball, at all. As a team, they have a total of 258 rushing yards in 4 games, and a terrible 2.7 yards per carry.

Spiller may not be the answer, but why not find out?

He is a JAG and they know it. He can't even win in practice that's why.

[Anteaters]

Anyone know why Spiller isn't getting a chance to even be active on game days? The Chargers cannot run the ball, at all. As a team, they have a total of 258 rushing yards in 4 games, and a terrible 2.7 yards per carry.

Spiller may not be the answer, but why not find out?

I think they will later in the season. Right now they're 2-2, still dreaming of a big season, and understandably assume their mega$ RB is the one to lead the way. If the record slides too far away from contention or if Ekeler starts to look terrible, the Chargers will roll out Spiller and see what they have.