Josh Allen - Time to Believe!

[petebusey]

I see a lot of talk about him being a good kid with high character...

Can someone speak to this?

The only thing I recall ever seeing was reports about his multiple racist social media posts years ago. Those reports turned me off to him and had him off my radar during our league's draft. But after seeing him in some action of weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason, I traded for him because I saw something. The racist stuff bothers me, but if there is something else that points to a changed person and now having high character I'd like to root for the kid, because it's hard for me too without knowing that.

[Jfever]

Young kids say things on social media these days often without thinking. Social media and its usage is both a benefit and a detriment. He made ignorant comments on social media when he was in high school because he was an ignorant country / farm kid. I'm thinking he realized his mistake.

[tresskid84]

My issues are with the people that said he couldnt succeed. That he was at the same level as lauletta. That he was a third round SF rookie pick because his completion percentage in JUCO. In that one game, he proved all of them wrong.

I said that no one with the accuracy rates he had in college has been successful before and while it was not impossible for him to succeed, I would let someone else take the risk. The fact that he beat the odds doesn't bother me. I much prefer the guys that go downfield to the dink and dunk nonsense the NFL has started to become.

If you said "No One with the accuracy rates he had in college has been successful before" then here are a couple for you to ponder:

The most recent with sub 60% completion percentage is M. Stafford who went #1 overall. Brett Favre had a way worse completion percentage in college and just this past Sunday Drew Brees finally broke his all time record of 6,300 completions.

The one thing you should like about Allen is he is the embodiment of the down the field passer.

Obviously, he needs to develop but his upside is through the roof and that upside wass on full display this past Sunday.

I see this argument a lot about him being a downfield passer and that being a large reason his completion percentage is so low (not saying you are saying this in particular, just pointing it out in general), but its simply a false narrative. Yes, he throws down field at a slightly higher percentage and is among the leaders in average depth of target, but when you break his accuracy down into different depths of the field (ie behind the LOS, 0-9 yards in the air, 10-19 and so on), he is still below average at almost every depth, especially behind the LOS and passes 0-9 yards down the field.

One thing that has always concerned me with him is you don't see him throw with proper touch/ball speed consistently. He has a little Donovan in him in that sense, along with general inaccuracy/streakiness (which, now that I think about it, Donovan might also be his best case high-end comp, which would be great for the Bills . . . there are a lot of similar traits there, especially young Donovan).

[Friction]

We can all agree on that regardless of his future, the rest of this year will most likely be a roller coaster of highs and lows, as is with most rookies. As is with Baker, their good and bad games moving forward are going to be blown way out of proportion. I think they both will end up successful, personally. The leagues I am in Josh may end up being sneaky good because he gets points with his legs and we don't penalize for Ints or Fumbles...

[Ice]

Trying to compare Allen to Stafford is a moot point, Stafford's high school and college production blow Allen's completely out of the water.

Football Outsiders has an annual article called QBASE that reviews incoming QB and tries to project them:
Based on their metrics, "since 1997, there have been 27 different quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with ratings similar to Josh Allen. The best of these quarterbacks was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese. It's a terrible group of quarterback busts. This list also includes Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, and Patrick Ramsey."

Clearly, you cannot believe everything you see or hear but as I've mentioned it before, I am a big skeptic but internally I do hope Allen succeeds, would be cool to have a kid come from nowhere and turn into something. However, in terms of drafting him? I'll gladly let someone else take him for today and if he shows enough, go get him later. The NFL has already chewed up and spit out plenty of QBs like Allen before, we'll see how he progresses.

Not comparing anything other the crazy argument that a 17-21 year old completion percentage is foolish if that the is key metric.

Allen is actually a much better athlete than Stafford. Bigger, stronger, faster, and a superior arm. The league hasn't seen his velocity numbers EVER. There are plenty of reasons he went high in this draft. The Bills moved up from 12 to draft this player so they obviously believed at least one other team wanted him.

My instincts tell me his doubters will be eating a lot of crow as this player develops. He has more raw tools than vast majority of QB's ever drafted in this league. Too early to really know if he is a can't miss player but the early returns are obvious why so many scouts and teams loved this kid.

He really hasn't come out of nowhere. He was a late bloomer out of High school and juco. He was 6'3 in high school and grew to 6'5 in college. Anyone should know it takes a while to grow into your body. The last couple of years of college he has finally filled out adding 25 lbs his last year at Wyoming.

As you watch this player in the coming years I am confident you will see this dual threat player excel.

You are flat wrong thinking the league has chewed up and spit out QB's like this. Not one in history has his arm velocity. He was the best player at his position at the combine.

His physical development the last 2 years was amazing and one reason he was drafted top 10 in this league in a strong QB class.

[tresskid84]

Halftime stat line: 5-19, 58 yards, and 1 int. Don't have that game on, but I'm sure its his oline and wrs fault and none of it is on him, lol

[tresskid84]

Also, before I start a riot on here, let me emphasize, I'M NOT WATCHING THAT GAME, haha (I'm watching the Eagles game). So feel free to rip me for the uninformed post, haha.

[Phaded]

His interception was literally horrendous and all his fault.

[Jigga94]

Ill comment then because I am watching...
It took until the last few minutes for him to complete a pass downfield to a WR. Kelvin was wide open. Had another completion to a WR on a cross. Impressive arm strength which we know is a strength.

Next he gets immense pressure from what I thought was an obvious blitz. GB sent 7 at him while they only had 5 or 6 blockers. He somehow got away from the pressure (again, good legs, good arm) and I thought he was going to ditch it out of bounds. Instead he throws into the middle of the field off his back foot. Interception instead of a FG to end the half. GB actually turned it onto a FG in 30 seconds and no timeouts bc Rodgers, but that's not the point. Josh needs to make better decisions.

[Friction]

Oh its the oline, and him, and the lack of playmakers. In that order I would say. The lack of playmakers is by far the least. He has combined some bad throws with a handful of smart decision throw it away, with the terrible INT. The Pack is throwing a good deal of pressure at him and the line is doing him no favors. Will have to make some major adjustments in the second half and they are not allowing him to get out of the pocket. Green Bay D looks good and he has nothing to offer them today, thats for sure.

[Jigga94]

INT #2 never looked off his target the whole way

[JoshGordonsDealer]

He looks like hot bleep garbage.

[Jigga94]

He looks like hot bleep garbage.

Yet I'm crucified for having him 5th in my ranks of the rookie QB

[Phaded]

He looks like hot bleep garbage.

Yet I'm crucified for having him 5th in my ranks of the rookie QB

...what?
Most people had him 5th...

[Jigga94]

He looks like hot bleep garbage.

Yet I'm crucified for having him 5th in my ranks of the rookie QB

...what?
Most people had him 5th...

Think it was a different thread but yes when I posted "Baker, Darnold, Rosen, Lamar, Allen" I got yelled at that Allen was easily 2nd

I just dont get it. I mean even in my league he was the 2nd QB taken. Darnold 3rd and Baker 4th