Matt Breida: To the Fins

[hjernazian]

I'm scratching my head about this one. The 9ers clearly paid McKinnon big bucks when they had Breida in house. McKinnon is coming back next year, or they can actually get out from under his contract for practically nothing, in which case I am certain they'd draft or sign another RB. That leaves Breida in a tough spot: best case he balls out this year and has solid value on the year, but is there a possibility there is more to it than that? Any future upside? Any potential league winning upside this year?

Just thought it was worth a discussion as I am seeing some astronomical prices on twitter.

[Unicorn92]

Breida is not a full time starter and will probably never be. He will always be in a timeshare in a commettee. That said he is a great player. Whatever happen to McKinnon you should keep Breida.

[jman3134]

My stance:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=170124

[Space Cowboy]

Crowell ripped off an untouched 60 yard run vs Detroit too. Breida was basically 70 yards untouched. That run D is horrible, don't overreact.

[Lotto4Life]

I just hope he remains the starter for the rest of the season.

[flashgordon12]

Astronomical prices? Best offer I've received is Kevin White... I think it will take a few weeks before we know for sure if he's going to be a long term asset

[jcass1991]

Was offered a 2019 2nd for him and not sure if I'm being greedy holding him and waiting for his value to go up or I should just take it because I picked him up on waivers last year. Not sure if his value has peaked or he can actually be a long term asset.

[hoos89]

Was offered a 2019 2nd for him and not sure if I'm being greedy holding him and waiting for his value to go up or I should just take it because I picked him up on waivers last year. Not sure if his value has peaked or he can actually be a long term asset.

I'd probably take a 2nd for him. His situation is too precarious for anyone to give up a 1st for him...he's in a timeshare with Alfred Morris, McKinnon may still take over next season, and he may get drafted over.

[hjernazian]

Great input. I ask because I have the chance to get C. Sutton for my late first in a 12 man, + Breida. He is my RB5, I don't need him, but he is a solid depth piece for injuries/bye's at the worst. I don't personally expect much value next year, as they either bring back Jerrick or get out of his contract for pennies and bring someone else on. But, even as a one year player, in a time share, he does have value at the position. I'm just wondering where his value is kind of gauged so I can assess how to trade him.

Edit: Not to mention, Most people forget but McKinnon was never going to be a workhorse. He doesn't have to be under a Shanahan system. Both McKinnon and Breida can be valuable if he proves himself this year imo.

[Fezzik]

I offered a mid 2019 second for Breida, and was declined. Guy who owns him is a rebuild and basically said he thinks he could be a 3 down back. I didn't offer my first (late).

[Metriculous]

I love to read threads like this where "experts" suggest that you should sell a young, productive player for a future 2nd round pick without blinking.

I find it hilarious.


Do these "hypothetical trades" ever get accepted in your leagues when you make these offers?

[notweswelker]

I love to read threads like this where "experts" suggest that you should sell a young, productive player for a future 2nd round pick without blinking.

I find it hilarious.


Do these "hypothetical trades" ever get accepted in your leagues when you make these offers?

You need to remember that most experts are just players like you. I've had plenty of instances where I thought the consensus was wrong and I was right, and vice versa. Dynasty is a difficult game with a lot out of our hands. I love Breida, been big on him since he was putting up 8+ YPC in college, and I think he could be a 3-down back if given the opportunity.

That being said, there are dangers here. Is Shanahan going to give Breida 75% of the work? I imagine Shanahan made promises to his old friend Alfred Morris. Politics comes into play a lot in the NFL, take a look at Seattle with Chris Carson... Carson is obviously better than Rashaad Penny, but Penny is a 1st round pick so they have him out there running for 2 yards per carry whilst Carson plays special teams

Beyond that, Breida is a little light for the position. While he has put on weight and there are definitely exceptions, his lightweight does give me a little pause. I know it's only 5-10lbs away from bellcow type status, but we've seen that those 5-10lbs seems to be a big difference.
Even further, the prospect of Mckinnon returning next season is still a big question mark.

In my not so expert opinion I think Breida steps into a mini-RB1 role, not quite bell-cow, but maybe something like 16-18 touches per game, currently he is averaging 13. I'm holding him personally as I think his potential is better than the hit rates on a 2nd round pick.

[Goddard]

I like him, but people are overly optimistic. He had 138 yards on Sunday, but only carried the ball 11 times, to Morris's 14. I think he'll continue to get around 10 carries per game, but he's obviously not going to go over 100 yards every week with that many touches. He'll also get 3-4 catches, which will make him a decent flex play, but wouldn't expect RB1/2 numbers on a weekly basis.

[hoos89]

I love to read threads like this where "experts" suggest that you should sell a young, productive player for a future 2nd round pick without blinking.

I find it hilarious.


Do these "hypothetical trades" ever get accepted in your leagues when you make these offers?

1) I dont think anyone in this thread claimed to be an expert. I think the value of this forum is to see differing opinions from multiple other players (although I acknowledge theres always the risk of group think affecting things).

2) About 2/5 of Breida's scoring so far has come essentially one big run where he was completely untouched and that was mostly created by blocking. He's been pretty good otherwise but not getting nearly the workload so far to be reliable on a weekly basis.

3) Even if he carves out a bigger share this season, he's still far from guaranteed to maintain a significant role next season.

Breida is a great sell high candidate right now in my opinion. He's had essentially one big run that's making people like you overstate his value: 11 attempts per game does not a productive fantasy back make. He's not someone I'd feel comfortable starting unless I had major issues at running back...and if my issues at RB were that bad then I'd probably be better off capitalizing on his current value. And that's THIS season. Nothing is guaranteed for him next season. Even if he puts together a solid season this year, I think a 2nd is a good return on a 1 year rental back if you're a non-contender. I'd only hold out for more if I seriously thought Breida could make waves after this season, which I personally don't think is very likely.

I can tell you as a Breida owner that I've tried to sell him for a 2nd and found no interest.

[Life of Pablo]

Only 2 weeks I know... but NFL rushing leader so far... leader in YPC (8.1) among qualified backs... and even if you take away the 66-yard TD he's still at 5.6 YPC... only 4 other backs have 5.0+ YPC even with their longest runs kept in... keep sleeping people...