Barkley Concerns

[ph7]

So I have discovered I am pretty much the only person in the known universe with this opinion, but I dont think Barkley is going to be a star. Not saying T-Rich level bust but I dont see what everyone else does. This is largely based on my opinion on college football conferences. I wanted to put this out there, I am sure I will get some hate. But here are the primary reasons why.

1. Big Ten is slow. You find great big boys in the conference, and there are exceptions to this and every rule, but mostly the skill players are not burners. And I dont care about the underwear olympics so much, its a visible difference when they go against other conferences with Ohio State typically being the exception.
2. Barkley only played one team where he wasnt arguably the fastest player on the field at all times in 2017, vs Ohio State. In that game he went 21 carries, 44 yds, 2.1 ypc. He added 4 catches for 23 yards. I recognize he took a kickoff back, but that performance put me on alert.
3. Indiana game-20 carries, 56 yards, 2.8 ypc. Against a team with one defensive player drafted in the 6th round, and nobody inside anyone’s top 100 cfb players for this year on their list. (This is a team that went 5-7, and generously finished ranked 53rd best defense. Eye test puts them even lower).
4. Reggie Bush-dominant player when he was the fastest person on the field. Once in the NFL that was never the case and, he had a nice career by most standards but it did not justify his draft position. And he certainly was not considered a star.

And I recognize teams were selling out to stop him and often times failing. But what I saw was a guy with good speed, even great speed for his conference, use that trait to gain himself a ton of yards. When that isnt available to him the way it was in the Big 10, I think he will struggle. All reports are he is a hard worker so I am not writing him off, but I dont see the hype and love the guy generates. He isnt a top 5 dynasty back in my mind. Gurley, Johnson, Zeke, Bell, Cook, Kamara, Fournette, Howard, Hunt, and arguably M. Gordon all worth more in my mind.
Rant over.

[mrmagloo]

Just where is that coming from? Did you draft Guice?

[ph7]

I did not but I do think Guice is the better back. I just see his value so high all over the board

[skip]

So I have discovered I am pretty much the only person in the known universe with this opinion, but I dont think Barkley is going to be a star.

Gurley, Johnson, Zeke, Bell, Cook, Kamara, Fournette, Howard, Hunt, and arguably M. Gordon all worth more in my mind.

You are not the only one. "Star" has different meanings. I think backs that are top 10 for the description. It is fair to question whether or not he is elite. My list isn't identical to yours but it is close. Freeman is on mine. Gordon isn't but he's about the level where I'd put Barkley and in line with Howard.

[Space Cowboy]

I think he's more Ray Rice than he is DJ or Bell.

[FantasyFreak]

I did not but I do think Guice is the better back. I just see his value so high all over the board

Don't get me started LOL. I think Barkley is the better back, but I think he will make his money in the passing game more than people think.. Not sure he'll be an elite rusher. I wouldn't be surprised, but I just think the expectations are too high for what he will do. I mean, people are turning down Fournette, and 2 firsts plus for him, and that is crazy to me.

[ph7]

So I have discovered I am pretty much the only person in the known universe with this opinion, but I dont think Barkley is going to be a star.

Gurley, Johnson, Zeke, Bell, Cook, Kamara, Fournette, Howard, Hunt, and arguably M. Gordon all worth more in my mind.

You are not the only one. "Star" has different meanings. I think backs that are top 10 for the description. It is fair to question whether or not he is elite. My list isn't identical to yours but it is close. Freeman is on mine. Gordon isn't but he's about the level where I'd put Barkley and in line with Howard.

See this is why I posted this, to see what this board felt. I feel a heavy majority of people dont feel this way, makes me feel a little better knowing Im not alone.

[Titans95]

So based off of two mediocre games he is doesn't have elite capabilities? The reason people love barkley is because of his elite size/speed. The kid weighs 230 and ran a 4.40 flat. If you think the big10 is slow that is fine but 4.40 is not slow no matter what conference you are in and it shows up on tape. He is also an elite pass catcher which is extremely ideal in ppr formats. No he isn't the menacing rusher that Zeke was coming out of college but he is a more well rounded 3 down back than even Zeke or Gurley was as a prospect. He has a tendency to try to bounce it out every play and make a huge run instead of taking the 2-3 yard gain but that is his only knock as a runner. He has great vision, balance, size,speed,hands, route running.

Is it too soon to say he's better than Zeke/Gurley/Bell/DJ type of player yes absolutely but people are valuing him there because he is easily the best prospect coming into the league compared to any of those players mentioned above, he has a fantastic offensive coach that many assume will be able to utilize him to his full potential, and is 21 years old. IF he hits he has the upside of being the 1.01 in dynasty picks for years to come. Bell can never say that again nor can DJ, Gurley and Zeke can still be the 1.01 this time next year but that is why most prefer Zeke and Gurley above Barkley but that's it.

Putting guys like Gordon/Freeman above saquon is just absolute foolishness. For one Freeman is 26 years old and has declined in fantasy production every single year and does not have the workload to ever be the RB1 again and he also has 0% chance of being the 1.01 in dynasty startups. Gordon is 25 years old (4 years older than Barkley which is a lot for a RB) and has a degenerative knee issue that already was bother him continuously throughout the year.

Fournette hasn't shown he is a true 3 down back that can get 50-60 receptions a year as well as he had major efficiency issues last year along with a chronic ankle injury.

Cook is nearly as unproven as Barkley is and is a lower prospect (I love cook)

Kamara is my favorite player in the NFL but until he proves he can carry the ball 200-250 times he'll struggle to reach 300 fantasy points in a single season again.

[notweswelker]

So based off of two mediocre games he is doesn't have elite capabilities? The reason people love barkley is because of his elite size/speed. The kid weighs 230 and ran a 4.40 flat. If you think the big10 is slow that is fine but 4.40 is not slow no matter what conference you are in and it shows up on tape. He is also an elite pass catcher which is extremely ideal in ppr formats. No he isn't the menacing rusher that Zeke was coming out of college but he is a more well rounded 3 down back than even Zeke or Gurley was as a prospect. He has a tendency to try to bounce it out every play and make a huge run instead of taking the 2-3 yard gain but that is his only knock as a runner. He has great vision, balance, size,speed,hands, route running.

Is it too soon to say he's better than Zeke/Gurley/Bell/DJ type of player yes absolutely but people are valuing him there because he is easily the best prospect coming into the league compared to any of those players mentioned above, he has a fantastic offensive coach that many assume will be able to utilize him to his full potential, and is 21 years old. IF he hits he has the upside of being the 1.01 in dynasty picks for years to come. Bell can never say that again nor can DJ, Gurley and Zeke can still be the 1.01 this time next year but that is why most prefer Zeke and Gurley above Barkley but that's it.

Putting guys like Gordon/Freeman above saquon is just absolute foolishness. For one Freeman is 26 years old and has declined in fantasy production every single year and does not have the workload to ever be the RB1 again and he also has 0% chance of being the 1.01 in dynasty startups. Gordon is 25 years old (4 years older than Barkley which is a lot for a RB) and has a degenerative knee issue that already was bother him continuously throughout the year.

Fournette hasn't shown he is a true 3 down back that can get 50-60 receptions a year as well as he had major efficiency issues last year along with a chronic ankle injury.

Cook is nearly as unproven as Barkley is and is a lower prospect (I love cook)

Kamara is my favorite player in the NFL but until he proves he can carry the ball 200-250 times he'll struggle to reach 300 fantasy points in a single season again.

I came here high on my Barkley horse ready to destroy, but it appears you've already done it. Very very well said.

[mrmagloo]

I did not but I do think Guice is the better back. I just see his value so high all over the board

I like Guice is a safe way to say, I don't have Barkley. Don't listen to the chummers. Who is rolling week one? Nuff said...

[skip]

Putting guys like Gordon/Freeman above saquon is just absolute foolishness. For one Freeman is 26 years old and has declined in fantasy production every single year and does not have the workload to ever be the RB1 again and he also has 0% chance of being the 1.01 in dynasty startups. Gordon is 25 years old (4 years older than Barkley which is a lot for a RB) and has a degenerative knee issue that already was bother him continuously throughout the year.

The problem is that you're making assumptions about Barkley's production and expecting that everyone is going to agree. There have been plenty of highly touted players to come into the league who failed to perform to expectations. Plenty of others who only had a very brief stint of production before flaming out. Guys like Freeman and Gordon are going to put up 1500+ yards this season with plenty enough TDs. If you think you are getting that from Barkley this year and a few seasons moving forward, then that's fine. I've been around this game far too long to just expect that because someone is a great prospect that he's somehow a lock. He's in my top 10 and I believe that's a very fair and optimistic ranking. If he performs well this season then he may earn a higher ranking a year from now.

[Titans95]

Putting guys like Gordon/Freeman above saquon is just absolute foolishness. For one Freeman is 26 years old and has declined in fantasy production every single year and does not have the workload to ever be the RB1 again and he also has 0% chance of being the 1.01 in dynasty startups. Gordon is 25 years old (4 years older than Barkley which is a lot for a RB) and has a degenerative knee issue that already was bother him continuously throughout the year.

The problem is that you're making assumptions about Barkley's production and expecting that everyone is going to agree. There have been plenty of highly touted players to come into the league who failed to perform to expectations. Plenty of others who only had a very brief stint of production before flaming out. Guys like Freeman and Gordon are going to put up 1500+ yards this season with plenty enough TDs. If you think you are getting that from Barkley this year and a few seasons moving forward, then that's fine. I've been around this game far too long to just expect that because someone is a great prospect that he's somehow a lock. He's in my top 10 and I believe that's a very fair and optimistic ranking. If he performs well this season then he may earn a higher ranking a year from now.

This is an upside thing. I and many others assume Barkley's workload alone warrants RB1 consideration THIS year, even if he is inefficient with his touches he should still be within the Melvin Gordon/LF conversation where they have been solid producers based on volume alone. The difference here is upside. You're playing fantasy to win not get 2nd or 3d. Like I said Gordon's and Freeman's ceiling can never reach 1.01 in dynasty startups yet there is a very real world where Barkley reaches that peak. Couple that upside with a fairly solid floor based on volume alone and you have a top 5 RB. If you want to make the argument that you'd rather have the safer shorter term production of Bell or DJ over Barkley that is just fine but I can't see how anyone would rather have Freeman who isn't going to come close to Barkley's volume which most likely means he won't come close to his production. Their floors are the same but Barkley's ceiling is that much higher.

I get a lot of people don't want to pay such a high price for an unproven rookie but there isn't any sane fantasy owner that would not require an overpay to let go of a guy that has the potential to be the RB1 in all of dynasty. Ranking guys based on past production is always going to put you behind the curve and you'll always be paying higher prices for better performing players instead of getting them a year before they produce elite numbers. I understand Barkley is not necessarily a bargain "prebreakout" considering you'll probably need to cough up Bell or DJ to get him but I cannot imagine how you wouldn't accept Barkley in a straight up trade for any Rb ranked in the tier below Kamara/Hunt. Which puts him right at RB7.

For me I'd be happy to trade him for Bell/DJ

[skip]

The difference here is upside. You're playing fantasy to win not get 2nd or 3d.

...I can't see how anyone would rather have Freeman who isn't going to come close to Barkley's volume...

Which puts him right at RB7.

I understand the upside argument and I am playing to win. It's why I am more confident in players I've seen perform at the NFL level than those I haven't.

I don't know why you wouldn't think Freeman won't get the volume. He only played in 14 games last season. He will still get a healthy volume and as much as Barkley, imo. I anticipate a rebound season from Freeman and expect him to be better than Barkley at least this year and in the future. For at least the next couple of years, he's the back I'd rather have if I'm playing for a title. The Giants need work on their offensive line and until that happens, I think Barkley is going to have some bad weeks.

RB7 sounds about right, whichever ones you want ahead of him. I prefer to tier my players, not have rankings. Anywhere from 7-10 is where I'd expect him to finish this season barring injury.

[Titans95]

The difference here is upside. You're playing fantasy to win not get 2nd or 3d.

...I can't see how anyone would rather have Freeman who isn't going to come close to Barkley's volume...

Which puts him right at RB7.

I understand the upside argument and I am playing to win. It's why I am more confident in players I've seen perform at the NFL level than those I haven't.

I don't know why you wouldn't think Freeman won't get the volume. He only played in 14 games last season. He will still get a healthy volume and as much as Barkley, imo. I anticipate a rebound season from Freeman and expect him to be better than Barkley at least this year and in the future. For at least the next couple of years, he's the back I'd rather have if I'm playing for a title. The Giants need work on their offensive line and until that happens, I think Barkley is going to have some bad weeks.

RB7 sounds about right, whichever ones you want ahead of him. I prefer to tier my players, not have rankings. Anywhere from 7-10 is where I'd expect him to finish this season barring injury.

Because his production has declined each year. with Coleman in town I don't see him getting more than his 227 carries he had in 2016 which isn't a lot when you look at the top guys carry count. That coupled with Sarkisian's offense that seemed not to throw the ball as often to the RB, and little chance the Falcons have that historic 2016 offense with Sarkisian at the helm and it doesn't look good for Freeman. I expect him to have a bounceback season from 2017 but a slight regression from 2016, probably somewhere in between. Its great value to be getting a pretty darn safe backend RB1 in the back of the second round in redraft but when you think of a guy like Barkley that should have a true workhorse role in Shurmurs offense (It wouldn't surprise me to see his usage similar to Cook pre-injury) then you're looking at a guy that worst case scenario still produces backend RB1 numbers if he is inefficient like Gordon or Fournette but has that DJ/Bell/Zeke upside if he is the stud every expects him to be. I believe right now Barkley's ADP for this year is 1.07 and Freeman's is 2.07, obviously players outperform and under-perform ADP every year but it just goes to show most people have the same line of thinking on Barkley. IF you'd rather take Kamara or Dhop at 1.07 and turn around and get freeman by all means that makes sense but when comparing apples to apples I find it hard to value Freeman over Barkley even this year.

[ph7]

So based off of two mediocre games he is doesn't have elite capabilities? The reason people love barkley is because of his elite size/speed. The kid weighs 230 and ran a 4.40 flat. If you think the big10 is slow that is fine but 4.40 is not slow no matter what conference you are in and it shows up on tape. He is also an elite pass catcher which is extremely ideal in ppr formats. No he isn't the menacing rusher that Zeke was coming out of college but he is a more well rounded 3 down back than even Zeke or Gurley was as a prospect. He has a tendency to try to bounce it out every play and make a huge run instead of taking the 2-3 yard gain but that is his only knock as a runner. He has great vision, balance, size,speed,hands, route running.

Is it too soon to say he's better than Zeke/Gurley/Bell/DJ type of player yes absolutely but people are valuing him there because he is easily the best prospect coming into the league compared to any of those players mentioned above, he has a fantastic offensive coach that many assume will be able to utilize him to his full potential, and is 21 years old. IF he hits he has the upside of being the 1.01 in dynasty picks for years to come. Bell can never say that again nor can DJ, Gurley and Zeke can still be the 1.01 this time next year but that is why most prefer Zeke and Gurley above Barkley but that's it.

Putting guys like Gordon/Freeman above saquon is just absolute foolishness. For one Freeman is 26 years old and has declined in fantasy production every single year and does not have the workload to ever be the RB1 again and he also has 0% chance of being the 1.01 in dynasty startups. Gordon is 25 years old (4 years older than Barkley which is a lot for a RB) and has a degenerative knee issue that already was bother him continuously throughout the year.

Fournette hasn't shown he is a true 3 down back that can get 50-60 receptions a year as well as he had major efficiency issues last year along with a chronic ankle injury.

Cook is nearly as unproven as Barkley is and is a lower prospect (I love cook)

Kamara is my favorite player in the NFL but until he proves he can carry the ball 200-250 times he'll struggle to reach 300 fantasy points in a single season again.

I came here high on my Barkley horse ready to destroy, but it appears you've already done it. Very very well said.

I mean honestly this argument doesnt sway my opinion at all, nor address most of my points against him. 4.40 is fast for 230. But youre qualifying it. And yes he does try to bounce. I wasnt saying he was a bust. I was saying he was supremely overvalued considering there are concerns in multiple places and he wont be able to use his speed the same way he did in college. Nothing you said argues against that, and that is a concern for a back. Period.

To be honest it didnt seem like you read through my entire post, just saw I was talking about two bad games and ran from there. And to bring up Shurmur, he hasn’t exactly had a record of utilizing running backs in any kind of crazy way. He is a quarterback developer working with a 37 year old quarterback.