Where would you rank tevin Coleman in this rookie draft?

[honcho55]

I dont think anyone is arguing that Coleman is a nice RB1, or even has that potential. A nice RB2 or flex guy is plenty valuable, though

[Ice]

You can put aside subjective perception and just look at what's objectively projectable. Doing so shows Henry is objectively more valuable and more desirable in dynasty than Coleman.

Henry is a safe bet for 275 touches this year (with upside for more if Lewis can't stay healthy), his age 24 season. This reasonably projects him to be a major difference-maker for one's fantasy line-up both right now and in the future. Long-term he continues to project favorably as the Titans are one of the few offenses in the league that remain very committed to running the ball heavily, and this offsets Henry's primary flaw, i.e. he's been mostly a 2-down RB so far.

Coleman is a reasonable bet to be a viable flex-play and low-end RB2 this year, his age 25 season. Projecting anything more is unreasonable at this time. Long-term, his prospects are very uncertain -- will the Falcons re-sign him, will he enter free-agency, and if the latter what team will he land on? His 2019 and beyond projection is thus unreliable, vague and subjective.

In summary, Henry is younger, offers more near-term value, and safer long-term prospects. Coleman is older, offers much less near-term value, and his long-term prospects have a high degree of variance.

The season projection came from splits where Freeman didn't play and Coleman got the full workload. It's still a little hokey for a number of reasons I've already discussed, but just being clear about what I put out there.

Ah, I see, my mistake.

TD production is often tied to situation...

It's especially tied to actually having the primary goal-line role, of course.

I can't imagine a situation where his volume goes down next season. As long as he's healthy, Tevin can easily continue RB2 production with RB1 upside.

Coleman was the RB20 in my half-ppr last year. He's just barely an RB2 for now.

You make the point about volume (and I agree), but Coleman's touching the ball sub-180 times a year, and his reception max in a season is 31, which may not be projectable to go up much with Calvin Ridley now in the offense. This degree of volume and its make-up (low reception totals) usually can't create a fantasy RB2. It's more RB3 range. Coleman has made it to the RB2 tier the last two years because he's overachieved with TDs.

I find the area I set BOLD rather interesting when discussing Subjective vs Objective.

A few facts:
2017 16 game season

D. Henry 7.75 points per game 116 points 16 games
Coleman 11.57 points per game 162 points 15 games

2016
D. Henry 6.566 points per game 91.9 points 15 games
T Coleman 14.683 points per game 176.2 points 13 games

The reason I bring this up goes to the fact the Titans just signed Lewis. It is a reach to think or suggest Henry will just be the guy given Lewis actually outscored both of these players last season.

2017
D. Lewis 11.047 points per game 165 points 16 games.

The other key piece of information that no one seems to be discussing with Henry, is from week 10 thru week 16; LEWIS was the 8th best fantasy RB in in PPr leagues. During that stretch Lewis Averaged 15.829 points and his lowest output was 9.2 in week 13.

Assuming Henry will get 275 touches or the Titans signed him to back up Henry may be based on a feeling or subjective as opposed to objective research.

Perception of value makes fantasy go but when one looks at the actual numbers Henry has the default lead back is quite speculative. The Titans signed him for 20 Million.. Teams don't pay that to back up RB's.

[Servo]

Coleman has turned out to be one of the better running backs from 2014-2016 and is getting 0 love. The fact that people are stating they would take all 8 RBs ahead of him just goes to show that rookie fever still runs rampant.

Yeah, I get it, he shares time with Freeman but the guy has been a Top 25 back in 2 of his 3 years. Not bad considering guys were taken before him like Bishop Sankey, Abdullah, Yeldon, etc. I'm with the minority here that even as part of a committee, Coleman is a good player and it's almost like no one thinks that any of these rookies with end up in RBBCs.

[Defender]

Coleman has turned out to be one of the better running backs from 2014-2016 and is getting 0 love. The fact that people are stating they would take all 8 RBs ahead of him just goes to show that rookie fever still runs rampant.

Yeah, I get it, he shares time with Freeman but the guy has been a Top 25 back in 2 of his 3 years. Not bad considering guys were taken before him like Bishop Sankey, Abdullah, Yeldon, etc. I'm with the minority here that even as part of a committee, Coleman is a good player and it's almost like no one thinks that any of these rookies with end up in RBBCs.

I feel like the Jags gave up on Yeldon too early (many feel the same about the Sankey situation). He was running behind a terrible OLine. It wasn’t until they drafted Fournette that they started rating their OLine seriously.

[BigBawseRoss]

all these responses saying they dont like how he looks as a runner or whatever are hilarious. i couldnt care less how they get their points unless it is a product of volume then i worry. if coleman was given volume he looks like he would be a fringe rb1

[Vcize]

I think people are a bit too caught up on Jerrick McKinnon's great landing spot and assuming Coleman will be the same. Really, it's much more of a wildcard.

I've seen mentions of him being the top FA RB next year. But remember it was probably Hyde, not McKinnon, who most FFers considered the top FA RB going into this offseason and that didn't exactly work out.

Likewise while he will have some choice in where he lands some guys don't salivate over being a 3 down workhorse like we FFers salivate over them being. Some guys seem content to ride out their careers making decent money as a committee back and saving their body. Maybe Coleman pulls a Jonathan Stewart and surprises us by re-signing in Atlanta.

[Vcize]

Coleman has turned out to be one of the better running backs from 2014-2016 and is getting 0 love. The fact that people are stating they would take all 8 RBs ahead of him just goes to show that rookie fever still runs rampant.

Yeah, I get it, he shares time with Freeman but the guy has been a Top 25 back in 2 of his 3 years. Not bad considering guys were taken before him like Bishop Sankey, Abdullah, Yeldon, etc. I'm with the minority here that even as part of a committee, Coleman is a good player and it's almost like no one thinks that any of these rookies with end up in RBBCs.

I feel like the Jags gave up on Yeldon too early (many feel the same about the Sankey situation). He was running behind a terrible OLine. It wasn’t until they drafted Fournette that they started rating their OLine seriously.

It's not like Fournette even ran great behind that line. 3.9ypc and that was mostly on two really long runs where he just ran in a straight line. I know you can't just take out runs but without those he was 3.2ypc on his other 266 carries.

As a Fournette owner in almost every league I'm actually more worried about him than most seem to be.

[GridironGuerilla]

I'm in the group that would take Coleman after Barkley, Guice, Penny, Chub... and I would consider Michel and Moore.

[sloth8u]

I'm in the group that would take Coleman after Barkley, Guice, Penny, Chub... and I would consider Michel and Moore.

why are some of these guys arguing he's worth a top 5? whether some of these rookies bust or not.....no one is giving that. even if you were to pony up a mid 1st, is it really worth giving up the chance at whichever rookie for the rb2 that your debating for?

again, i like coleman, probably more than most...but im going to need to see proof of some recent coleman trades to believe someones paying 1.10 or better. better yet would be one of the posters in this thread paying that for him in the last month.

i think most pushing his value are already considering him a lead back somewhere. that certainly may be, which is why he's a buy....but banking on that, and counting on a trade partner to do so are 2 different things.

[SteelCitizen]

I like Coleman, but I do fear he will never be a lead back, or worse yet, he is put in that role and gets injured or puts up terrible efficiency.

I see a clear tier break after Chubb at 1.03, so in a 24 team league, I made the following trade about a week after the NFL draft.

Gave:
Tevin Coleman RB ATL
1.11 (Christian Kirk WR ARI)
Rico Gathers TE DAL
Jeremy Hill RB NE

Recieved:
1.03 (Nick Chubb RB CLE)

Overpay? Maybe. But I got out from under the shadow of fear; I got a rookie I love; and I consolidated roster space.

[honcho55]

I like Coleman, but I do fear he will never be a lead back, or worse yet, he is put in that role and gets injured or puts up terrible efficiency.

I see a clear tier break after Chubb at 1.03, so in a 24 team league, I made the following trade about a week after the NFL draft.

Gave:
Tevin Coleman RB ATL
1.11 (Christian Kirk WR ARI)
Rico Gathers TE DAL
Jeremy Hill RB NE

Recieved:
1.03 (Nick Chubb RB CLE)

Overpay? Maybe. But I got out from under the shadow of fear; I got a rookie I love; and I consolidated roster space.

I think this post kinda puts a bow on it. Guy has some nice value. Can hang on and hope he makes that step into RB1, or hope for a floor of decent RB2/flex, or move him in a trade like this. Or hold him til next offseason and see if you can get an overpay, or a freeman injury, etc. lot of ways his value can go up. On the other hand I’ll agree with the post right before this that people aren’t really spending an early/mid first on him right now from what I can tell.

[Jason]

With one of the 8 rookies you get a guy with a clear path to a starter role if things work out (and don't have to wait a full year for that) on a 4-5 year contract and he's early 20s.

Coleman's situation on the other hand is a complete wildcard. What if he suffers an injury and isn't as efficient, or for that matter misses a lot of time? This contract season is pivotal for him. What if he goes to a team that drafts a young RB early? What's going on with that sickle cell trait too, will it give teams pause about pursuing him or making him a featured back?

It also feels like Ben Tate deja vu to me so maybe that's why I'd rather have the rookies, idk. And I get that it's totally different because Coleman is a better receiver than Tate was and didn't suffer a lost rookie year, it's just the irrational vibe I get.

[honcho55]

With one of the 8 rookies you get a guy with a clear path to a starter role if things work out (and don't have to wait a full year for that) on a 4-5 year contract and he's early 20s.

Coleman's situation on the other hand is a complete wildcard. What if he suffers an injury and isn't as efficient, or for that matter misses a lot of time? This contract season is pivotal for him. What if he goes to a team that drafts a young RB early? What's going on with that sickle cell trait too, will it give teams pause about pursuing him or making him a featured back?

It also feels like Ben Tate deja vu to me so maybe that's why I'd rather have the rookies, idk. And I get that it's totally different because Coleman is a better receiver than Tate was and didn't suffer a lost rookie year, it's just the irrational vibe I get.

I don’t hate the Tate reference. He had kinda a weird career arc though, whereas Coleman is more clearly on the rise, to me. Also I’d argue Tate had similar value at some point which was significant. Do you buy and see what’s up or sell at the right point?