jpatern21 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:41 pm
I'm not as high as most of you. I like Mixon but would have much preferred a better spot. Hill and Gio there. I know Mixon is talented but it's still a crowded backfield. I was really hoping the Colts, Pack or Eagles got him.
Think in Dynasty terms. Gio's injured and probably misses the first third to quarter of the season and Hill's contract is up and he's out the door in '18. It should be mostly Mixon's backfield by '18 at the latest. Gio's deal runs through '19 if memory serves, but he's easy to dump following the '18 season. I think the Fournette situation is ideal, McCaffrey's and Mixon's are solid, and Cook's is cloudy in the short term. I also think Cook will have no trouble taking the job away from Murray, but in terms of production, that's a concern, as that Vikings OL is still a major issue.
One way to look at it would be this:
Jacksonville Offense: Coughlin has produced a multitude of excellent running games with multiple backs during his time with the Giants, and Jags, I believe at least 4 or 5 diff 1,000 yard backs headlined by Fragile Fred and Tiki Barber's stretch run. He wants to take the ball out of Bortles hands, give it to Fournette, and then develop a new QB to replace Bortles barring a miracle, and when he does so, that QB will have some combination of Robinson/Hurns/M. Lee to go with Fournette, an excellent situation for a developing QB if they can continue to fix the OL (they landed an excellent RT prospect, and have a stop gap LT for now, so it's in progress, probably 2 more years to rebuild fully, another offseson for it to potentially be adequate). For me that means Fournette will be in a solid to good situation with potential going forward. He'll get a ton of touches, and should see at least some room to run w/somewhat improved OL play, and so many WR's to worry defenses even if the QB sucks.
Carolina Offense: Cam's dual threat abilities will open up running lanes for McCaffrey. It should vulture the hell out of his TD's though.
Cincy Offense: Mixon lands in an offense loaded with pass catchers, with adequate mid-table line play (but losing an elite guard), and adequate quarterbacking. He has competition in Hill that the team will let go in '18, and in Gio as a satelite share back who is injured and signed through the '19 season, but can be cut following the '18 season. This is not bad, I actually like it.
Minnesota Offense: The good: the offense features a potential star WR in Diggs, a nice slot+ guy in Thieland and a guy with great draft pedigree that flopped in Treadwell. But, and it's a big but, Cook will have to deal a moribund passing game due to the hideous play of Sam Bradford (they get that the record was bogus right?), and the OL. Cook will not be running behind impressive blocking until '19 at the earliest. If Clemmings develops and stays healthy he could help though.
For me the situation was/is bad, but still consider:
For Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook and Mixon: Potential landing spots according to rumors and teams in that 1-15 zone:
SF: Horrific landing spot. No QB, no WR's, no OL, and RB competition in Hyde.
NYJ: Horrible landing spot. No QB, no WR's, and rapidly declining OL and head coach change/instability on the horizon.
LAC: Horrible landing spot. Were rumored to be considering McCaffrey, but Gordon already in place and possessing some pass catching chops, also featured terrible OL, and aging QB.
KC: Cloudy spot. Ware did reasonably well early as the starter before tailing off. QB situation would be awful, OL is merely adequate, passing game is ho-hum. Does feature stability in FO/Coaching, w/a history of producing strong RB's, so that would be a mixed bag.
N.O. Bad. Just signed AP, apparently quite unhappy with Ingram, and featuring a dark horse SPARQ-x freak in Lasco. QB about to retire, coach maybe ready to leave.
Philly: Very good. Using the KC system, no major competition, adequate to improved OL play, young franchise QB in place, good weapons at WR recently signed.
Indy: Perfect. Aging RB ready to retire, franchise QB in play with great passing game. Slowly improving the OL. Dream scenario.
Baltimore: Mediocre. No major competition at RB, QB at the peak of his mediocre powers, questions at WR. Plus side is a great chance to win job, bad side is the offense is poorly put together right now and has a low ceiling in terms of trips to the red zone.
Washington: Ideal. Good OL, great passing game, and no competition. Only significant concerns are Cousins's potential FA, and having lost 2 of the 3 starting WR's.
Tampa Bay: Very good. Martin suspended, Sims having proven inadequate in '16 after a very good '15, excellent passing game with elite franchise QB in place.
For me, when it comes to the big 4, there were a couple of teams that would have been better landing spots for any, or some of the landing spots, namely, Philadelphia, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis, but that's pretty much it, while there were several landing spots signicantly worse, or no better that these guys also easily could have landed in based on rumors and/or need including the 49ers, the Jets, and the Chargers, and some murky spots like Kansas City, New Orleans, and Baltimore.
Definitely not an ideal draft for those of us holding top 6 picks with needs at RB (like me), but it could have been a lot worse with the Jets interested in Fournette, the Chargers seriously considering McCaffrey, and quite a few cloudy jobs out there for Mixon and Cook to fall into. I'm not happy, but I'm also relieved that Fournette landed with an organization trying to address its problems, with a new FO and coach, and that Mixon and Cook if nothing else, landed in situations where they should have the starting gig to themselves in '17 or '18 at the latest. McCaffrey is more nebulous, he landed with a team notorious for lack of creativity, and with a QB that will vulture a ton of TD's in the red zone, but Cam should also open up a ton of room for McCaffrey because Cam forces teams to honor the threat of him running, so it's not as bad as some fear, but not great either. The interesting thing is that it's mostly the day 3 guys that really landed in great spots-Mack to the Colts, Perine to the Redskins, Kamara to the Saints (not as bad as people think, he should have the job all to himself sooner rather than later if he can win it, otoh, Brees and Payton will leave very soon), McNichols to the Bucs, and with Hunt and Williams landing in situations where it isn't hard to imagine them winning the starting gig and turning into top 10-20 backs in a best case scenario (as both backs landed in great systems well known for turning day 3 backs into stars).
