Superflex Trade, Reek+ for Adams+

[auggiedoggies]

12 team Superflex league, standard PPR scoring.

My team is in a rebuild, my relevant assets are:

Carr, Jameis, Tanny

Cook, AA, Thompson, Powell

Cooper, Adams, TY, Edelman, Ginn, Mike Williams

Burton, Olsen.

I also have 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, 2.1, 2.3, 2.8, 2.10, 2.11, 3.01


The offer is:

Give: Davante Adams, Tannehill, 2.8, 2.10


Get: Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon


Thoughts? I have Adams slightly ahead of Reek, but I'm not super concerned about that side. Is Tanny/2.8/2.10 an overpay for Gordon?

[skip]

Tyreek > Adams

But this being a superflex league, I think the rest of the trade favors Tannehill side. I don't like the idea of only leaving yourself 2 QBs in this format. Pass.

[EAGLES]

I think that is an overpay for Gordon. I agree with skip, don’t leave yourself with only 2 QBs in a SF.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Adams = Hill for the most part. I would 100% take Gordon over Tannehill + two late 2nds, and I don't even trust him. Two reasons:
1. I believe Tannehill is destined for the backup QB life, perhaps as soon as 2019, especially now that his safety blanket is gone.
2. Even if you don't trust Gordon, there's probably one or two believers in every league. I'd try to get Gordon then flip for a late 1st.

[dipANDglide]

Lol. This is the other owner. Good doing business with you, Auggie! You got the higher upside end of the deal. I wanted to get a QB3 with a little upside and diversify from CLE/KC offenses a little. glgl

[skip]

I believe Tannehill is destined for the backup QB life, perhaps as soon as 2019, especially now that his safety blanket is gone.

This is what I disagree with as I view Tannehill as an established starter for the forseeable future. Here is what I see working in his favor:

Career completion percentage of 62.7%. Relative to his peers, this puts him in the "meaty" part of the curve. Not as good as a Brady (63.9%) or Rodgers (65.1%). Better than an Eli (59.8%) or a Palmer (62.5%) and many of the young QBs people seem to love like Mariota (61.8%) and WInston (60.8%). About a 2:1 TD:INT ratio over his last 3 seasons (2014-2016). That puts him in that same range of QBs. Multiple 4,000+ yard passing seasons. Prior to the injury that kept him out in 2017, Miami was 10-6 the prior year and reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008. There's really nothing about his play to this point of his career that would suggest he shouldn't be a starting QB in the league.

[auggiedoggies]

Lol. This is the other owner. Good doing business with you, Auggie! You got the higher upside end of the deal. I wanted to get a QB3 with a little upside and diversify from CLE/KC offenses a little. glgl

Ha, too funny! I'm pretty happy with it, I'm secretly a Tyreek truther lol. Good deal! gl

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I believe Tannehill is destined for the backup QB life, perhaps as soon as 2019, especially now that his safety blanket is gone.

This is what I disagree with as I view Tannehill as an established starter for the forseeable future. Here is what I see working in his favor:

Career completion percentage of 62.7%. Relative to his peers, this puts him in the "meaty" part of the curve. Not as good as a Brady (63.9%) or Rodgers (65.1%). Better than an Eli (59.8%) or a Palmer (62.5%) and many of the young QBs people seem to love like Mariota (61.8%) and WInston (60.8%). About a 2:1 TD:INT ratio over his last 3 seasons (2014-2016). That puts him in that same range of QBs. Multiple 4,000+ yard passing seasons. Prior to the injury that kept him out in 2017, Miami was 10-6 the prior year and reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008. There's really nothing about his play to this point of his career that would suggest he shouldn't be a starting QB in the league.

Hmm fair points. Maybe I should go back and re-evaluate him.

[Titans95]

I think Adams > Hill by quite a bit. Adams has consistently gotten better and better and now has the keys to the kingdom as the #1 WR for Rodgers, that situation can't get better than that. Hill has an unproven QB and now a WR they just paid mega bucks to. I'd pass on this trade quickly

[Mrowmix]

I spent most of my time trying to figure out who AA was instead of thinking about your trade.

I thought initials were only used for mostly memorable players. No one fears Ameer anymore.

I like the Tannehill side simply because I think he's being undervalued. He's probably got a job somewhere for the next 4 years. Old guard will retire in 2-3 and he'll be better than most things hanging around.

[M-Dub]

Tyreek > Adams

But this being a superflex league, I think the rest of the trade favors Tannehill side. I don't like the idea of only leaving yourself 2 QBs in this format. Pass.

Would you be kind enough to explain how you came to that conclusion? I love Tyreek. He’s a fun player to watch and even more fun to have on your fantasy team, but I would still take Adams in a straight-up trade. He’s only 14 months older than Tyreek. He was a 2nd round pick, is built like a prototypical WR1, just signed a four-year contract, has minimal competition for targets and is tethered to the best QB in the league. Tyreek is an undersized 5th round pick still on his rookie contract, has to compete with Kelce, Sammy and Hunt for targets and is catching passes from a QB with one NFL start (in a meaningless week 17 game) under his belt.

Again, I love Tyreek and I’m not shitting on him at all. It’s been an absolute joy to watch his ascendance over the past two seasons. But he still makes me a little nervous as an owner. He’s a little too reliant on splash plays and doesn’t (yet?) command the target share we expect from a typical WR1. I think an overall WR1 season is within Adams’ range of outcomes. I’m not ready to say the same about Tyreek yet. I don’t think the value difference is huge (maybe an early/mid 2nd), but I think it’s distinct.

Not trying to derail the thread or call you out. I’m just curious to hear your reasoning. Maybe you can soothe some of my concerns about Tyreek.

And to the OP, if the above didn’t make it obvious, I’d prefer the Adams side.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Tyreek > Adams

But this being a superflex league, I think the rest of the trade favors Tannehill side. I don't like the idea of only leaving yourself 2 QBs in this format. Pass.

Would you be kind enough to explain how you came to that conclusion? I love Tyreek. He’s a fun player to watch and even more fun to have on your fantasy team, but I would still take Adams in a straight-up trade. He’s only 14 months older than Tyreek. He was a 2nd round pick, is built like a prototypical WR1, just signed a four-year contract, has minimal competition for targets and is tethered to the best QB in the league. Tyreek is an undersized 5th round pick still on his rookie contract, has to compete with Kelce, Sammy and Hunt for targets and is catching passes from a QB with one NFL start (in a meaningless week 17 game) under his belt.

Again, I love Tyreek and I’m not shitting on him at all. It’s been an absolute joy to watch his ascendance over the past two seasons. But he still makes me a little nervous as an owner. He’s a little too reliant on splash plays and doesn’t (yet?) command the target share we expect from a typical WR1. I think an overall WR1 season is within Adams’ range of outcomes. I’m not ready to say the same about Tyreek yet. I don’t think the value difference is huge (maybe an early/mid 2nd), but I think it’s distinct.

Not trying to derail the thread or call you out. I’m just curious to hear your reasoning. Maybe you can soothe some of my concerns about Tyreek.

And to the OP, if the above didn’t make it obvious, I’d prefer the Adams side.

Not who you asked, but I'll answer my reasons as to why the two are virtually equal in value for me. Talent-wise, Adams is more prototypical, but Hill is in the same mold as Antonio Brown and TY Hilton, both of whom are and/or have been fantasy WR1s for years. Note that I said mold as in body-type and athleticism. Hill isn't quite there yet, but I think there's a decent chance that he will continue to improve. Adams has the better QB in Rodgers for sure, but I view Mahomes' ceiling to be almost as good as Rodgers. Mahomes has just as good an arm (if not better) to get long TDs to Hill while scrambling for time, and I would argue he has a much better playcaller (Reid > McCarthy). Finally, in terms of surrounding talent, opposing secondaries have much more to worry about with Watkins, Kelce, and Hunt than they do with Cobb, Graham, and Jones/Williams. Honestly, I have no idea whether I would draft Hill or Adams if both were available to me at 1.08 in a startup draft.

[Titans95]

Tyreek > Adams

But this being a superflex league, I think the rest of the trade favors Tannehill side. I don't like the idea of only leaving yourself 2 QBs in this format. Pass.

Would you be kind enough to explain how you came to that conclusion? I love Tyreek. He’s a fun player to watch and even more fun to have on your fantasy team, but I would still take Adams in a straight-up trade. He’s only 14 months older than Tyreek. He was a 2nd round pick, is built like a prototypical WR1, just signed a four-year contract, has minimal competition for targets and is tethered to the best QB in the league. Tyreek is an undersized 5th round pick still on his rookie contract, has to compete with Kelce, Sammy and Hunt for targets and is catching passes from a QB with one NFL start (in a meaningless week 17 game) under his belt.

Again, I love Tyreek and I’m not shitting on him at all. It’s been an absolute joy to watch his ascendance over the past two seasons. But he still makes me a little nervous as an owner. He’s a little too reliant on splash plays and doesn’t (yet?) command the target share we expect from a typical WR1. I think an overall WR1 season is within Adams’ range of outcomes. I’m not ready to say the same about Tyreek yet. I don’t think the value difference is huge (maybe an early/mid 2nd), but I think it’s distinct.

Not trying to derail the thread or call you out. I’m just curious to hear your reasoning. Maybe you can soothe some of my concerns about Tyreek.

And to the OP, if the above didn’t make it obvious, I’d prefer the Adams side.

Not who you asked, but I'll answer my reasons as to why the two are virtually equal in value for me. Talent-wise, Adams is more prototypical, but Hill is in the same mold as Antonio Brown and TY Hilton, both of whom are and/or have been fantasy WR1s for years. Note that I said mold as in body-type and athleticism. Hill isn't quite there yet, but I think there's a decent chance that he will continue to improve. Adams has the better QB in Rodgers for sure, but I view Mahomes' ceiling to be almost as good as Rodgers. Mahomes has just as good an arm (if not better) to get long TDs to Hill while scrambling for time, and I would argue he has a much better playcaller (Reid > McCarthy). Finally, in terms of surrounding talent, opposing secondaries have much more to worry about with Watkins, Kelce, and Hunt than they do with Cobb, Graham, and Jones/Williams. Honestly, I have no idea whether I would draft Hill or Adams if both were available to me at 1.08 in a startup draft.

I have to respectfully disagree with your opinion. AB and Hilton may be similar size but their style of game is totally different. its not a stretch to say Hill is similar to TY Hilton and has the same upside as him but much younger but how on earth does that translate to AB? No one in the NFL is like AB and its a complete dart throw to compare him to anyone or even try to say they have the "potential" to be. I would say the ONLY person in the NFL that could even be in the same conversation as the same player as AB is OBJ, definitely not Hill. And I get Mahomes has a ton of potential but how can you possibly say he has the same ceiling as Rodgers? Rodgers has been the #1-2 fantasy QB in pretty much every single year he has played a full season and is possibly one of the greatest of all time. How can you compare Rodgers to a guy that has only started in one NFL game and try to say he's got the same potential? I like Hill a lot and think he's a fantastic WR but Adams is in a way better situation and is that "prototypical" #1 WR on a team. If Hill is so great why did they feel the need to bring in a prototypical sized WR in Sammy to fill that role? Because they want hill to run screens, Jet sweeps and go routes, thats not enough on the route tree to warrant WR1 numbers consistently week to week

[Bucky15]

I like Tyreek plenty but Adams is a clear #1 WR who just so happens to have the most receiving TDs in the league over the last two seasons, and his trajectory is still going up. He hasn't even reached his potential yet. I think Adams has to be in front of Tyreek still. I would take the Adams/Tannehill side.

[Titans95]

12 team Superflex league, standard PPR scoring.

My team is in a rebuild, my relevant assets are:

Carr, Jameis, Tanny

Cook, AA, Thompson, Powell

Cooper, Adams, TY, Edelman, Ginn, Mike Williams

Burton, Olsen.

I also have 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, 2.1, 2.3, 2.8, 2.10, 2.11, 3.01


The offer is:

Give: Davante Adams, Tannehill, 2.8, 2.10


Get: Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon


Thoughts? I have Adams slightly ahead of Reek, but I'm not super concerned about that side. Is Tanny/2.8/2.10 an overpay for Gordon?

I'm not super familiar with superflex leagues but I feel like Tannehill for Gordon straight up should be fairly close in value. Both are pretty big question marks with how much longer they have as starters. Any day at anytime could news break that Gordon has been kicked out of the NFL again. The Dolphins may be looking to replace Tannehill soon. I can say I think he'll find a starting job as a bridge QB for multiple years if he moves on from Miami.