CJ Mosley

[icemic]

Is anyone concerned about his production movin forward?

[boobam13]

Over his short career he has always been a streaky, up and down stat producer - its only one week, not that this week will give him a huge chance to bounce back but he will be fine over the long haul of the season -

Week 1 was a tough week for a lot of highly ranked guys

[dlf_tomk]

OK. Because Im an enormous dork and I had a few spare minutes I was looking at his stats and I thought I'd turn it into some fun data.

Here's CJ Mosleys points by week [Sack=4, solo=2, bleep=1, INT=6]:



Doesn't seem streaky but there is a fairly high variance. I don't know if that's unusual or not.

Here's his average production by week in each season:



Pretty flat I'd say. Although it's worth noting it's only 2 seasons and 1 game this year.

Weirdly he tends to do better in road games than home games. This might be a quirk of the low sample size or be totally usual. I dont know [yet].



Here's his points against each team:



Curious eh? Looks like he does better against passing teams and worse against running teams. Which got me thinking about how game script changes:



Turns out Mosley does better in games when the team loses [although it's not a huge difference and I dont know if this is normal or not]

So the biggest learning for me is he tends to do better on the road against teams that throw a lot. And given he was at home last week against a running team it's not a surprise [in hindsight] he did poorly.

Hope that was useful/interesting

[saw061600]

I feel sooooo much better now regarding my own obsessive compulsive chart making and other data collection methods. Thanks Tom for both the information and being part of the data crazy club.

[icemic]

Tom that was intense and probably the most thorough response I've ever received on a fantasy forum. THANK YOU! Conclusion? He's good, no worries?

[The Red Rooster]

Wow Tom K., I dont own any shares of Mosley...but I still found that a very thorough and interesting post! Nice stuff!

[bwalsh015]

Seriously thank you for making that. I have Mosley on a few teams and was a bit worried about him (especially since I lost one game by 1.3 points lol). Feel a lot better now appreciate the graphs.

[dlf_tomk]

Glad you enjoyed that chaps.

IDPGuru pointed out last night the home/road split might be due to the stat crew at Baltimore being high on assisted tackles. It's a fair point. I tend to assume that home teams have better control of games and run more [leading to slightly more tackle opportunities for road LBs] but either way it's honestly a fairly small difference and in Mosley's case likely just a data goblin.

Long story short for me: nothing's changed and he remains a LB1/2. Feel free to start him until further notice.