Don't overthink NFL draft round

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Telperion
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Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Mon May 04, 2015 8:55 am

(Now updated with better graphs and more accurate data!)

That gem you fell in love with who got drafted in the 4th round or later isn't going to be a stud. In fact, it's very unlikely they ever become fantasy relevant for multiple seasons. And it's still very unlikely they even put up one relevant season.

It's better you come to terms with this fact now, before your rookie draft. You're better off drafting somebody you don't like but was taken earlier.

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But do 40 yard dash times really matter? It depends.

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But speed isn't everything, sometimes you have to adjust for size and height. Does that make a difference? It depends.

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BUT MY FAVORITE SLOW RUNNING BACK HAD A REALLY GOOD 3-CONE AND SHUTTLE!! His agility makes up for his lack of speed. No, not really, it looks like it doesn't matter at all what his agility score is.

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For SS, AS, and 40yd times, the population (N = 377, 473, 235 for RB, WR, TE) for each graph is all players since 1999 who have recorded a fantasy statistic. For draft round graphs, the population (N = 966, 1047, 634) is all drafted players (for those drafted) and UDFA is all players who have recorded a fantasy statistic. The population size for these graphs is over 300.
Last edited by Telperion on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:03 pm, edited 8 times in total.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby dm1129 » Mon May 04, 2015 8:58 am

Excellent reminder Telperion. What period of time does this graph represent?

Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Mon May 04, 2015 9:05 am

Edited to move to original post.
Last edited by Telperion on Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby TheChicken » Mon May 04, 2015 9:09 am

Or worry less about situation if they did get drafted early.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby klazk » Mon May 04, 2015 9:25 am

I know everyone wants a stud, but seems a little limited in use to only show positional top 12 when most leagues you have to start at least 3 WRs.

I'd be very curious to see the same data with positional top 36 for WR and 24 for RB (although really just WR since I know a lot of leagues have gone to start one RB). That way you see the percentage of players drafted in those rounds that ended up being a fantasy starter in at least two years as opposed to only the top tier guys.
12 team PPR QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/FLEX/DEF (2015 Start Up)
QB: Ryan, Bortles
RB: Sankey, Duke Johnson, M. Jones, K. Davis, Taliaferro, Darkwa, T. Jones, P. Thomas, C. West
WR: Jeffrey, Watkins, Allen, Torrey, K. White (IR), John Brown, Bailey, Huff, D. Smith, Hardy, Enunwa, Bell (IR), McBride (TS), D. White (TS), T. Williams (TS)
TE: ASJ, Miller, Maxx (TS)
DEF: Jets
2016 Rookie Picks: 1st, 2nd, two 4ths

16 team weighted PPR (.5 RB/1.0 WR/1.25 TE) 6 pt passing TD QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/FLEX (2015 startup)
QB: Flacco, Bradford
RB: Miller, Ingram, David Johnson, Hillman, Reece, Bradshaw, Ridley (IR), Malcolm Brown (TS), Mostert (TS)
WR: OBJ, Matthews, Devante Parker, Funchess, M. Wilson, Bailey, Snead, Janis, Boyce (IR), Montgomery (TS), D. White (TS)
TE: ASJ, Fiedorowicz, Carrier, Wright
2016 Rookie Picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Mon May 04, 2015 9:34 am

klazk wrote:I know everyone wants a stud, but seems a little limited in use to only show positional top 12 when most leagues you have to start at least 3 WRs.

I'd be very curious to see the same data with positional top 36 for WR and 24 for RB (although really just WR since I know a lot of leagues have gone to start one RB). That way you see the percentage of players drafted in those rounds that ended up being a fantasy starter in at least two years as opposed to only the top tier guys.
Expect a similar slope but just a different intercept.

I'll be writing some flexible measures to generate these charts more easily with different inputs and views.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby holy_stromboli » Mon May 04, 2015 9:54 am

Dat running back 40 time chart though... :wtf:

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby dlf_jules » Mon May 04, 2015 10:19 am

Nice work here!
Download the 2019 Cohort Report for free today!

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby JJDubya » Mon May 04, 2015 11:00 am

I read that 4.5-4.55 40 time to be >0, correct? Would be interesting to see the raw numbers here, as I could see the score being watered down as a result of the number of RBs that actually running in that range outnumbering the rest by a hefty margin.

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Mon May 04, 2015 12:31 pm

JJDubya wrote:I read that 4.5-4.55 40 time to be >0, correct? Would be interesting to see the raw numbers here, as I could see the score being watered down as a result of the number of RBs that actually running in that range outnumbering the rest by a hefty margin.
1/102. 4.45-4.5 is 7/80, 4.55-4.6 is 7/109, 4.6-4.65 is 3/103.

To look at another slice, 6/32 in the 4.40-4.45 range met the criteria, 6/348 at 4.60 or slower met the criteria.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon May 04, 2015 12:44 pm

Beautifully simple. Of course it's not a final word on anybody, a strawman argument that I'm sure somebody will come running in here to make, but it's nice to see it in this form.

The RB/WR difference in 40 times seems like the biggest deal- it matters so much more for the RBs than it does for the WRs.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Phaded » Mon May 04, 2015 1:41 pm

While this is a great chart for referencing elite #1 guys.. It is not exactly a surprise.

Maybe I'm an exception but when I'm going after those later guys I like; I'm typically looking for 2 or 3 production, not 1 production (although it would be nice).

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby BuckeyeNation » Mon May 04, 2015 1:41 pm

So is this basically to say don't pass on a top 40 draft pick like Devin Smith when he's available at the tail end of the 2nd in your rookie draft? ...
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby klazk » Mon May 04, 2015 2:10 pm

BuckeyeNation wrote:So is this basically to say don't pass on a top 40 draft pick like Devin Smith when he's available at the tail end of the 2nd in your rookie draft? ...
Or a top 30 one like Dorsett? I'm not a big fan, but I'm surprised at how late he's going in a lot of the mocks.
12 team PPR QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/FLEX/DEF (2015 Start Up)
QB: Ryan, Bortles
RB: Sankey, Duke Johnson, M. Jones, K. Davis, Taliaferro, Darkwa, T. Jones, P. Thomas, C. West
WR: Jeffrey, Watkins, Allen, Torrey, K. White (IR), John Brown, Bailey, Huff, D. Smith, Hardy, Enunwa, Bell (IR), McBride (TS), D. White (TS), T. Williams (TS)
TE: ASJ, Miller, Maxx (TS)
DEF: Jets
2016 Rookie Picks: 1st, 2nd, two 4ths

16 team weighted PPR (.5 RB/1.0 WR/1.25 TE) 6 pt passing TD QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/FLEX (2015 startup)
QB: Flacco, Bradford
RB: Miller, Ingram, David Johnson, Hillman, Reece, Bradshaw, Ridley (IR), Malcolm Brown (TS), Mostert (TS)
WR: OBJ, Matthews, Devante Parker, Funchess, M. Wilson, Bailey, Snead, Janis, Boyce (IR), Montgomery (TS), D. White (TS)
TE: ASJ, Fiedorowicz, Carrier, Wright
2016 Rookie Picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ericanadian » Mon May 04, 2015 3:00 pm

I've been using 4.6 as my cutoff for RBs. Perhaps it's worth considering going to 4.5.
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