Page 1 of 2
What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:47 am
by Dookmarriot
I'm new to this college scouting thing, so wanted to get a sense about which sites and which analysts you trust/like to use.
I'd like to get better at scouting players myself, so if there are resources that have helped you develop that skill, or guys who opinions you trust, I'd love to check them out. Refer away, and thanks!
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:56 am
by Swampdonkey17
I was also but got a jump start last year. I really like withthefirstpick.com, and google matt waldman
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:37 am
by Azhais
http://draftbreakdown.com/ has video on lots of prospects
Waldman, as Swamp mentioned
http://draftcountdown.com/ has good info and a great podcast
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:06 pm
by pjh0736
Dookmariot wrote:I'm new to this college scouting thing, so wanted to get a sense about which sites and which analysts you trust/like to use.
I'd like to get better at scouting players myself, so if there are resources that have helped you develop that skill, or guys who opinions you trust, I'd love to check them out. Refer away, and thanks!
I am in same boat, first dynasty offseason, clueless, but Swampdonkey had suggested
www.withthefirstpick.com so i started there and i can tell you that is a good site.
I will be living in these forums, getting as much info from other posters as i can while also learning from the various websites and scouts.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:59 am
by Dookmarriot
Thanks guys. Love withthefirstpick.com, and am intruiged by Matt Waldman's site...definitely different than what you normally see. I found his 2014 guide to be interesting. He hits as often as he misses, but that's probably a good percentage in this game, and I really like the process.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:31 pm
by Plank
I think it's all about challenging your own perceptions anywhere you can, most of the time if we all agree on something, we could not be more wrong
I think too often we are led astray by what sounds good and not enough by what we see for ourselves, its learning everything about the players in both strengths and weaknesses that makes for good evaluations .. To get a feel for the players you are adding to your Dynasty Rosters is invaluable in the long run... And only can help you buy others at low prices because you have already done the work and know that player may just need a little more time to develop...
Just a for instance, player in front of you takes Ajayi because he read that he could be the next Jamaal Charles, but evaluating him for yourself you notice he cannot pass block very well, almost comical at times ... That owner later gets frustrated because Ajayi doesn't get on the field much and only has shown very few flashes when he was expected Jamaal Charles, so he then trades him to you for a WR .. and then in the next two years Ajayi really does improve and becomes one of the better backs in the League
...
So listen to everyone you can on the players you are thinking about drafting, but trust none of them!
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:11 am
by cactusdave
My advice is to move away from all this film study stuff and start relying much more on analytics/metrics as a predictive mechanism for future performance. It's like sabremetrics in baseball. Choose the science associated with data sampling over a bunch of guys speculating on what they see with each individual.
When you have a metric that tells you that the vast majority of RB's that become high fantasy producers in the NFL, based on a sample size of the past dozen drafts, are the ones that run fast 40's, and have long broad jump distance results at the combine, that's a significant indicator -- and at a minimum a great place to start.
When you see Melvin Gordon, another RB from Wisconsin, the warning signs should go up. There have been a long, long line of Badger running backs who have been exceptional at the collegiate level, yet have fallen flat on their face in the NFL. Is Gordon just the latest edition in these Wisconsin system RB's or is he finally going to be the exception? I don't know yet, but I'm certainly going to go in with my eyes open.
Contrast that proposition with Duke Johnson who comes from Miami, a school that consistently places RB's in the NFL that are great fantasy producers. Will Johnson be the next in a long line of highly successful backs? I don't know yet, but it's a data point that cannot be overlooked if you're going to be a savvy Fantasy owner.
Pay attention to guys like Jonathan Bales who's perspective is guided by clear data analytic outcomes.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:22 pm
by Diti51
Bales analytic perspective has been more wrong than right from my recollection. Guy loved Pettigrew. Predicted Trent Richardson would be #2 RB scoring in PPR in 2013. That Rob Housler would be top 10 TE. Just to name a few. So just as many hits as misses.
In the end I think anyone looking at tape with analysis is useful, but not definitive. Big difference in an RB who comes out of a certain program and a QB that comes out of a certain system. Need to see the talent of the individual in the context of their offense. No one who knew anything about football thought Danny Wuerfel, or (insert Florida Gator QB name) would translate to NFL because they lacked decision making, arm strength and accuracy to make it at the NFL level.
I get the Wisconsin RB thing, but raising concern and not picking a guy is a different matter.
Read as many different perspectives and then make your own decision. Guys loved TRich and reports from Colts preseason camp were that he "looked great in drills". Anyone who watched him in Cleveland and initially on Colts could tell you he wasn't going to pan out because lacks vision, and just doesn't have that initial burst to get through NFL holes that disappear as quick as they open.
Good luck. Read, read, read, and listen to scouts for specifics to support their opinion on a player. There are certain intangibles that separate an average NFL player from potential stars that are unique to EACH position on the field. Once you get those and look for those, you have a higher likelihood of drafting players who will help your dynasty team for years to come. You will swing and miss, but usually because of unforeseen injuries, changes in offensive philosophy, or off the field issues which are more difficult to predict.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:28 pm
by Diti51
One more thing.
For WR to translate to NFL. When watching film, can they get off the line cleanly? Do they make quick burst off line or take negative step? How well do they track balls in the air? Do they consistently high point ball? Catch radius? Do they make catches in traffic as well as in wide open? In big games, with game on the line, do they seem to step up or shrink? 40 yard dash times will make some guys climb in ranks and drop in others, but remember there is a ton of stuff besides 40 yard dash that makes a receiver special. Jerry Rice never ran under a 4.50.
For RBs, do they get yards after contact? Can they make the first guy miss in space? Lateral quickness/agility? Initial burst and ability to hit hole when they make first cut? Vision to see holes? Patience to allow blockers to set up? In this new NFL, ability to catch balls and pass pro are difference between playing 2 downs versus getting 3 down opportunity on a team immediately.
Any TE you draft should be expected to take a minimum of 2-3 years to develop. Just a few notes I have learned from talking with and listening to people who know a hell of a lot more about this than I ever will. Good luck!
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:16 pm
by pjh0736
diti51 wrote:One more thing.
For WR to translate to NFL. When watching film, can they get off the line cleanly? Do they make quick burst off line or take negative step? How well do they track balls in the air? Do they consistently high point ball? Catch radius? Do they make catches in traffic as well as in wide open? In big games, with game on the line, do they seem to step up or shrink? 40 yard dash times will make some guys climb in ranks and drop in others, but remember there is a ton of stuff besides 40 yard dash that makes a receiver special. Jerry Rice never ran under a 4.50.
For RBs, do they get yards after contact? Can they make the first guy miss in space? Lateral quickness/agility? Initial burst and ability to hit hole when they make first cut? Vision to see holes? Patience to allow blockers to set up? In this new NFL, ability to catch balls and pass pro are difference between playing 2 downs versus getting 3 down opportunity on a team immediately.
Any TE you draft should be expected to take a minimum of 2-3 years to develop. Just a few notes I have learned from talking with and listening to people who know a hell of a lot more about this than I ever will. Good luck!
This is what i needed. First dynasty offseason just starting to jump into scouting not sure what im suppised to be essentially looking for. So far i watched David Cobb highlights vs Michigan, but saw a few things i personally liked, but to be honest im excited about this offseason
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:19 pm
by cactusdave
diti51 wrote:Bales analytic perspective has been more wrong than right from my recollection. Guy loved Pettigrew. Predicted Trent Richardson would be #2 RB scoring in PPR in 2013. That Rob Housler would be top 10 TE. Just to name a few. So just as many hits as misses.
That's why I said data analytics are more powerful than cherry picking individual snippets of film study. When you have a sample size of 6 -7 drafts or more, to make comparisons from, it's pretty easy to see players with attributes that most often result in NFL success and compare that to the present crop of players to determine who belongs on your short list.
No system or person is infallible. Scouts fail in their assessments all the time. But if you're driven by the patterns that emerge out of the sheer number of contestants, you're going to see what works and what doesn't, the majority of the time.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:36 am
by nwhalen
cactusdave wrote:diti51 wrote:Bales analytic perspective has been more wrong than right from my recollection. Guy loved Pettigrew. Predicted Trent Richardson would be #2 RB scoring in PPR in 2013. That Rob Housler would be top 10 TE. Just to name a few. So just as many hits as misses.
That's why I said data analytics are more powerful than cherry picking individual snippets of film study. When you have a sample size of 6 -7 drafts or more, to make comparisons from, it's pretty easy to see players with attributes that most often result in NFL success and compare that to the present crop of players to determine who belongs on your short list.
No system or person is infallible. Scouts fail in their assessments all the time. But if you're driven by the patterns that emerge out of the sheer number of contestants, you're going to see what works and what doesn't, the majority of the time.
Could you expand on this? Maybe i'm not following you correctly. I'm a film guy, watch hundreds of hours of tape every year. When I make rankings, I take into account a players size, speed, quickness, and how I project they may develop in the future. I'm curious what i'm missing.
Thanks Dave
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:48 pm
by Cameron Giles
Don't over think it. Watch game film, read scouting reports from experts and make a choice. Metrics aren't going to give you a clear idea of who will translate to the pro game, though they can give you a clue about their overall skills.
No method will ever give you bulletproof results, so the best you can do is trust yourself and be patient with young players.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:04 am
by Balzac
Cameron Giles wrote:Don't over think it. Watch game film, read scouting reports from experts and make a choice. Metrics aren't going to give you a clear idea of who will translate to the pro game, though they can give you a clue about their overall skills.
No method will ever give you bulletproof results, so the best you can do is trust yourself and be patient with young players.
Re: What scouting sites do you trust?
Posted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:43 pm
by gmoftheyear
Trust your eyes