2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

[FantasyFreak]

I'm getting Penix in SF a lot. Got Nix in one too. I'm taking them all day over day 2 WR's and also Worthy and a few other late first guys, but you don't even have too. Penix has been consistently there between picks 12-15 in SF drafts. Picks 14 in 2 leagues, 15 in another.

[Cameron Giles]

What format are we talking about? In 1QB, it just doesn't make much sense to draft QBs over WRs, especially if it's full PPR and passing touchdowns aren't scored high.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

What format are we talking about? In 1QB, it just doesn't make much sense to draft QBs over WRs, especially if it's full PPR and passing touchdowns aren't scored high.

Sorry, SF of course. But even in 1QB, Brooks and benson should be going much higher

[Shcritters]

DD - I love your logic. For me, I've done two drafts so far and were in 'rebuild' in both.

League 1 - Caleb at 1.01, Nabers at 1.5, traded the 1.11 for a likely mid 2025 1st (McConkey was the pick), got Coleman at 2.01 (held my nose while making the pick), Penix at 2.02 (last of the 6 QB's), and Sinnott at 2.06. I have 3 1sts and 2 2nds next year - which is a RB draft - which is why I passed on RB's at 2.01/2.02 and went WR/QB. So got 2 QB's and 2 TE's.

League 2 - Caleb at 1.01, Nabers at 1.05, Bowers at 1.06, Worthy at 1.09, McConkey at 1.10, McCarthy at 1.11, BTJr at 2.01, Pearsall at 2.05 (considered Sinnott but wanted a share of Pearsall). Penix and Nix went 2.07 and 2.08 in this league. I also have 3 1sts and 2 2nds next year here, so will get my RB's next year. So I got 2 QB's and 1 TE.

I do have one more league where I have 1.02 and 2.02. There are going to be lots of options at that 2.02 pick, as some in the league are hinting at using a late 1st on Sinnott (super-TE-Prem league of 1.5 PPR and .15 pts/yd-rec). I'll likely have the option of a strong WR, a QB (likely Penix or Nix), one or both of the RB's, and possibly Sinnott.

This was the year to get QB's IMO... next year will be sparse, and the cost was very cheap this year. For me I grabbed some low-cost QB's and now have 4 NFL starting QB's in each league. If I could have done it over again I would have grabbed Penix or Nix at 2.05 in the second one instead of Pearsall.

[JTLoh]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

What we should be doing is trading 2025 picks for 2024 and taking a shot now at that 3 and 4 round WR over next years 3rd and 4th round rookie picks.

[FantasyFreak]

DD - I love your logic. For me, I've done two drafts so far and were in 'rebuild' in both.

League 1 - Caleb at 1.01, Nabers at 1.5, traded the 1.11 for a likely mid 2025 1st (McConkey was the pick), got Coleman at 2.01 (held my nose while making the pick), Penix at 2.02 (last of the 6 QB's), and Sinnott at 2.06. I have 3 1sts and 2 2nds next year - which is a RB draft - which is why I passed on RB's at 2.01/2.02 and went WR/QB. So got 2 QB's and 2 TE's.

League 2 - Caleb at 1.01, Nabers at 1.05, Bowers at 1.06, Worthy at 1.09, McConkey at 1.10, McCarthy at 1.11, BTJr at 2.01, Pearsall at 2.05 (considered Sinnott but wanted a share of Pearsall). Penix and Nix went 2.07 and 2.08 in this league. I also have 3 1sts and 2 2nds next year here, so will get my RB's next year. So I got 2 QB's and 1 TE.

I do have one more league where I have 1.02 and 2.02. There are going to be lots of options at that 2.02 pick, as some in the league are hinting at using a late 1st on Sinnott (super-TE-Prem league of 1.5 PPR and .15 pts/yd-rec). I'll likely have the option of a strong WR, a QB (likely Penix or Nix), one or both of the RB's, and possibly Sinnott.

This was the year to get QB's IMO... next year will be sparse, and the cost was very cheap this year. For me I grabbed some low-cost QB's and now have 4 NFL starting QB's in each league. If I could have done it over again I would have grabbed Penix or Nix at 2.05 in the second one instead of Pearsall.

Agreed.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

Hmm, I like your theory, but is that actually the case? I’d be interested to see if more players selected in a particular round equates to a higher hit rate. My assumption would be no, but I’d like to see the data on that. You may be correct.

Edit: oh, you mean since there are so many good WRs, that pushes some good ones down into the later rounds. Interesting theory, but idk if that is true or not. Would like to see the data on that.

[mild]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

Hmm, I like your theory, but is that actually the case? I’d be interested to see if more players selected in a particular round equates to a higher hit rate. My assumption would be no, but I’d like to see the data on that. You may be correct.

Edit: oh, you mean since there are so many good WRs, that pushes some good ones down into the later rounds. Interesting theory, but idk if that is true or not. Would like to see the data on that.

I think there's been a pretty consistent school of thought that outside of the big 3 WR's - the rest of the WR class is pretty underwhelming, at least from a prospect profile POV. Nearly all of them have warts of some kind that you really have to squint through.

Ladd McConkey? Incredible efficiency, but he barely played. Xavier Worthy? Got amazing draft capital and has a really strong prospect profile, but the size-ists are scared of an 170lb receiver (fair enough). Adonai Mitchell? An absolute greek god physically, and one of the worst analytic profiles I've seen. Keon Coleman? Elite interview, elite landing spot, but probably miscast as an Outside X where he will play. I could keep going... you get the idea.

The point being that the Top 3 WR's being awesome has contributed to the idea that the WR class itself is awesome - when really it's those top guys that make it so, and the rest are... pretty good. For sure, it goes deep with "pretty good" though.

The RB class is definitely weak, but that billing has likewise meant that people are too down on Jonathan Brooks. He's not Bijan, but he's a very good prospect... my big toss up was between Brooks and Ladd in my rankings, and I've eventually landed on Brooks by a hair.

DD and others, I like this chat. In my main league I've got a reasonable dilemma - I've got a balanced build, no outright needs. I pick 1.06, 1.11, and then 2.12 and 3.01.

If I'm left one of the QB's at 1.06, then my thinking is either Worthy/BTJ or Brooks at 1.11.
If I'm left Odunze, then my temptation to take Penix at 1.11 will be absolutely rising... but I feel like I'll be taking him too early.

The obvious answer would be to trade down and take him mid-2nd... but at this point I've had no takers, everyone is gripping their picks tight. Perhaps that changes in two weeks when we draft.

Good thread. Loving the strats.

[JTLoh]

Because this year is projected to be a deeper class at WR. Which increases the odds that the WRs picked in later rounds of this year's class will have a higher hit rate than prior years, due to being more talented.

Hmm, I like your theory, but is that actually the case? I’d be interested to see if more players selected in a particular round equates to a higher hit rate. My assumption would be no, but I’d like to see the data on that. You may be correct.

Edit: oh, you mean since there are so many good WRs, that pushes some good ones down into the later rounds. Interesting theory, but idk if that is true or not. Would like to see the data on that.

I dont think there really needs to be data, it would be a fact that if there are 100 people that are talented enough to be NFL WRs in the 2024 draft and only 10 people talented enough to be NFL WRs in the 2023 draft, then more of them will hit from later rounds in the 2024 draft.

But what isn't fact is if that is actually the case. I don't know if this a deeper class. I don't know if we will have more hits from 2024 than 2023 or 2025. But I do know that seems to be the contention from the so called experts, like Matt Harmon.

But I do agree that outside the top 3, WRs it's a high probability a guessing game.

Personally, I've tried to spread my shares out. If I have a Ladd in one league, I've taken Brian Thomas Jr in the other. Hopefully I get someone good that way. But who really knows they all could bust.

But I also agree with you that some of these RBs/TEs/QBs could be getting pushed down further that they should because so many think all these WRs are good.

What I do think is that the NFL has a surplus of good to decent WRs. I mean, I can list 30 names that people would say will be in the top 15. Not gonna be the case. There's only 15 top spots the rest of the 30 have to 15-30.

But yeah, I don't who's right, but I just suspect the perception of a deep WR class is why people are doing what you think could be wrong. I don't know if is, we'll see.

[Bronco Billy]

This allegedly deep draft class doesn’t feel deep at all. You get to around the middle to late in Rd 2 and it really seems to me like it just runs out of gas.

The WRs are supposed to be really deep but last year you could get guys like Scott, M Wilson, Iosivas, Nacua, Washington and Wicks late and they all had a feel of quality depth with potential to them. Add last year’s great and deep TE class and the good RB class with a couple of studs and some really sound talent along with them and there were some quality pickings into the 4th and 5th rounds.

This year’s RBs and TEs are very light classes, so once the big 6 QBs and around 12 WRs come off the board, other than my dart throw at A Smith I was looking a lot harder at IDPs than last year. The deeper WRs seem to be more flawed than last year’s depth there.

If it weren’t for the IDPs I would have been looking to move draft picks for next year’s class, and we had 2 guys in our league move all their 5th through 8th rounds for a 2025 4th, so they felt the same way. The guys who bought the late picks were predominantly scarfing up IDPs.

[abloom]

I primarily play in 14 team SF dynasty leagues. In those leagues I have 13 first round graded players, but I'm not really interested in trading up unless someone significantly falls. I'm primarily looking to move back or out entirely. I think there are lots of players that I think have a chance of improving their value between now and start of the regular season so I'm grabbing those guys in the late 2nd and third.

I have 2 shares of Penix because in both cases I had the roster space to wait for him, and in a 14 team SF I'm going to draft a top 10 NFL drafted QB that had rumors of being targets by other teams. In leagues like my 12 team FFPC dynasty leagues (play like a large keeper league) I have zero interest in Penix.

I have only 1 first round RB (brooks) and only 1 first round TE (Bowers). The other first round graded players are 6 QBs (Caleb, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Penix, Nix) and 5 WRs (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Worthy, BTJ), generally at least 2-3 of these guys are making it to the second round but I'm not getting enough of a discount to move up from later in the 2nd, so I'm primarily looking at moving back.

I think that the drop between Caleb and the other top 2 qbs (Daniels and Maye) is a lot less than the drop off between Maye and McCarthy. Penix I would have higher than McCarthy if I was sure he would play this year or even next year. Nix I have as basically the guy I'll draft because he was drafted in the first 15 and is a QB. I don't think he's going to succeed but he has a better chance at a more impactful position than other players.

I have about 14-15 guys with second round grades. these are players I hope will either (1) develop into a flex player or (2) someone that I can flip in the next 2 years for a first rounder. I think there are several RBs in this range but no QBs or TEs. Its definitely RB and WR heavy.

I'm happy to flip my late first for 25 firsts to teams that are not legit championship contenders.

For team #3 in signature, day of draft I actually moved my 25 1st for the 1.12 (I'm back to back defending champ, I should be a top 3 team this year, so I'm trading the 1.12 in 2025 for the 1.12 in 2024). On the clock Worthy was still there (and someone else, but don't remember who), I ended up just flipping the pick for someone else's 2025 1st (a bottom half team). As long as I do better than them this season its a net win anyways, but I just saw no reason to go with Worthy when I can move it to potentially a better pick next year.


Honestly the biggest thing I'm seeing this year, in 14 team SF leagues (again i'm in 4 of those) Penix and Nix are highly undervalued and someone in the early 2nd is possibly gaining a huge asset in a year or so.

[blemly]

Wondering what everyone’s strategy to attacking their rookie drafts is this year. I feel like everyone is doing it wrong, and I’m wondering if I’m the crazy one or if everyone else is crazy.

My strategy has been to avoid the non-top-3 WRs, in favor of the QBs, RBs, and TEs (well, Sinnott specifically). My reasoning is this.

The hit rate for non-top-10 WRs drafted in the first round is only 24% to get a difference making WR. The hit rate for 2nd round WRs is 14% and 3rd round WRs is 12%.

Now compare that to 1st round QBs in which a franchise QB hit rate is roughly 43% from eyeballing the last 10-15 years worth of QBs.

The hit rate for a random 2nd round RB to get a 1k yard rushing season is about 46%. For 3rd round rbs it’s about 24%. Trey Benson will be a Tier1 RB in my rookie rb report which bumps up his odds to around 50%.

Ok, so all that said. Why are we drafting non-top-10 WRs whose hit rate is only 12-24%, over QBs and RBs whose hit rates are DOUBLE that.

Why are we drafting 2nd round WRs in the late-1st when WRs with similar hit rates (3rd round WRs) are available in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Why not draft QBs and RBs early and then draft the WRs late? Wouldn’t that make more sense?

I could not agree more here and might even go more extreme. After Williams, MHJ, Nabers, Daniels, Maye, JJM and Odunze I’m taking Brooks or trading out. And I don’t really care about the rest of the “fantasy round 1 WRs” and think their value is inflated. Sure some will hit but they all have flaws.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

With the talk about hit rates changing dependant on how many WRs are drafted in what rounds. I remember looking up several years ago and tracking the hits and misses of I think round 1 receivers. And I’d have to go back and double check, but I remember it being a cyclical type of deal, in which for a year or two, the WRs would hit at an above average rate. Following that, more WRs were drafted in the 1st, and then the bust rate would actually increase. I remember thinking at the time that nfl GMs probably saw the 1st round wr hits, wanted in on the action, and overdrafted WRs the following year(s). Then there’d be a high rate of busts, and then less wrs drafted in the 1st round, as teams saw the busts, until some hit again, then more in the following years, etc etc… I’d have to go back and find the data on that but I think I’m remembering correctly. I’d argue the wr hit rates these past few years have felt high (haven’t checked the data but it certainly feels that way).

I think there could be merit to thinking since there are more highly drafted WRs in this class that there will be more good WRs total, and that might be true, but it might also be true that the hit rate actually goes down for this class, even if the raw number of “good” WRs goes up.

Also, I remember looking up teams that drafted WRs with similar draft capital in back to back years, if that increased the hit rate or not. I remember I was interested because Philly drafted Reagor right after they drafted JJAWS. From what I found it didn’t really seem to have an impact on if the team “learned its lesson” and thus doing a better job drafting the 2nd wr. The hit rates didn’t seem to change much if at all from what I remember.

[81-]

I'm looking to come away with a QB, 2wr and a RB.

I'll set my board, fall in love with a few guys and hope they slide to me. I'll also blow on the dice and pray to the fantasy football gods.

If all goes well. And how can it not. I will print up an A+ FF draft grade flag and fly it proudly.