QB Passing Touchdown Length Percentage Analysis

[Cameron Giles]

How does this differ from air yards? I mean there is a 50 yd bomb for a TD and a 10 yd slant with 40 YAC. Both equal a 50 yd TD but the later is much more common.

My first thought too. It's an interesting premise for sure. I think air yards would help close a key gap here.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Went through every QB drafted rounds 1-3 since about 2010. As I suspected, the data isn't *quite* as nice as before, but it's still heavily slanted.

I tried to classify the players
Green = Stud
Blue = Long-term franchise QB
Black = Middling/Unsure/TooSoon
Red = Bust

Quarterbacks that decreased the amount of long touchdowns in their final collegiate season

1st ROUND
Josh Allen - 56% (64%)
Jordan Love 50% (56%)
Blaine Gabbert 50% (67%)
Baker Mayfield 47% (63%)
Patrick Mahomes - 46% (61%)
Johnny Manziel 46% (50%)
Joe Burrow 45% (69%)
Justin Herbert 44% (55%)
CJ Stroud 44% (57%)
DeSean Watson 39% (69%)
EJ Manuel 39% (44%)
Jared Goff 37% (49%)
Brandon Weeden 35% (56%)
Bryce Young 34% (51%)
Andrew Luck 27% (41%)
Christian Ponder 20% (29% - not full season)

2nd ROUND
Andy Dalton 59% (74%)
Deshone Kizer 42% (48%)
Derek Carr 40% (49%)
Will Levis 26% (42%)

3rd ROUND
Ryan Mallett 47% (53%)
CJ Beathard 35% (59%)
Russell Wilson 27% (32%)

4th-7th ROUND (not all QB's researched)
Dak Prescott 34% (52%)
Brock Purdy 37% (42%)

Rookies
Michael Penix 47% (55%)


______________________________________


Quarterbacks that had little to no change in their percentage (within 2%)

1st ROUND
Jameis Winston 48% (50%)
Kenny Pickett 48% (46%)
Justin Fields 45% (44%)

2nd ROUND
Drew Lock 57% (57%)
Geno Smith 48% (48%)

3rd ROUND
Will Grier 51% (50%)
Desmond Ridder 47% (47%)
Matt Corral 40% (41%)

4th-7th ROUND (not all QB's researched)
Kirk Cousins 40% (40%)


______________________________________



Quarterbacks that increased the amount of long touchdowns in their final collegiate season

1st ROUND
Tua Tagovailoa 67% (60%)
Robert Griffin III 65% (50%)
Jake Locker 59% (52%)
Paxton Lynch 57% (36%)
Lamar Jackson 56% (40%)
Daniel Jones 55% (50%)
Marcus Mariota 55% (32%)
Trevor Lawrence 54% (50%)
Zach Wilson 51% (45%)
Teddy Bridgewater 48% (44%)
Blake Bortles 48% (28%)
Sam Darnold 42% (29%)

2nd ROUND
Colin Kaepernick 52% (45%)
Christian Hackenburg 50% (42%)
Kyle Trask 37% (32%)

3rd ROUND
Garrett Grayson 66% (57%)
Malik Willis 59% (50%)
Mike Glennon 58% (32%)
Mason Rudolph 57% (54%)
Cody Kessler 45% (36%)
Jacoby Brissett 45% (26%)
Nick Foles 43% (40%)
Sean Mannion 40% (24%)
Kellen Mond 32% (25%)

4th-7th ROUND (not all QB's researched)



Rookies
Jayden Daniels 63% (47%)
Drake Maye 58% (37%)
Caleb Williams 57% (26%)
JJ McCarthy 50% (41%)
Bo Nix 40% (31%)


______________________________________


Inconclusive (Quarterbacks without 2 full seasons back to back to compare)

1st ROUND
Cam Newton 57%
Kyler Murray 55%
Mac Jones 54%
Dwayne Haskins 52%
Mitchell Trubisky 47%
Anthony Richardson 47%
Ryan Tannehill 44%
Josh Rosen 42%

2nd ROUND
Jalen Hurts – 47% (Also 47% 2 years prior on different team)
Brock Osweiler 46%

3rd ROUND
Davis Webb 54%
Davis Mills – Inconclusive

4th-7th ROUND

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If we sort the players by percentage changed;


8%+ Increase
Robert Griffin III 65% (50%)
Paxton Lynch 57% (36%)
Lamar Jackson 56% (40%)
Marcus Mariota 55% (32%)
Blake Bortles 48% (28%)
Sam Darnold 42% (29%)
Christian Hackenburg 50% (42%)
Garrett Grayson 66% (57%)
Malik Willis 59% (50%)
Mike Glennon 58% (32%)
Cody Kessler 45% (36%)
Jacoby Brissett 45% (26%)
Sean Mannion 40% (24%)

Rookies
Jayden Daniels 63% (47%)
Drake Maye 58% (37%)
Caleb Williams 57% (26%)
JJ McCarthy 50% (41%)
Bo Nix 40% (31%)


1-7% Increase
Kenny Pickett 48% (46%)
Justin Fields 45% (44%)
Will Grier 51% (50%)
Tua Tagovailoa 67% (60%)
Jake Locker 59% (52%)
Daniel Jones 55% (50%)
Trevor Lawrence 54% (50%)
Zach Wilson 51% (45%)
Teddy Bridgewater 48% (44%)
Colin Kaepernick 52% (45%)
Kyle Trask 37% (32%)
Mason Rudolph 57% (54%)
Nick Foles 43% (40%)
Kellen Mond 32% (25%)


0-6% Decrease
Johnny Manziel 46% (50%)
EJ Manuel 39% (44%)
Russell Wilson 27% (32%)
Brock Purdy 37% (42%)
Jameis Winston 48% (50%)
Drew Lock 57% (57%)
Geno Smith 48% (48%)
Desmond Ridder 47% (47%)
Matt Corral 40% (41%)
Kirk Cousins 40% (40%)
Jordan Love 50% (56%)
Deshone Kizer 42% (48%)
Ryan Mallett 47% (53%)


7-15% Decrease
Josh Allen - 56% (64%)
Patrick Mahomes - 46% (61%)
Justin Herbert 44% (55%)
CJ Stroud 44% (57%)
DeSean Watson 39% (69%)
Jared Goff 37% (49%)
Andrew Luck 27% (41%)
Christian Ponder 20% (29% - not full season)
Andy Dalton 59% (74%)
Derek Carr 40% (49%)

Rookies
Michael Penix 47% (55%)


16%+ Decrease
Blaine Gabbert 50% (67%)
Bryce Young 34% (51%)
Baker Mayfield 47% (63%)
Brandon Weeden 35% (56%)
Joe Burrow 45% (69%)
Will Levis 26% (42%)
CJ Beathard 35% (59%)
Dak Prescott 34% (52%)

[BabyChark23]

So, if I’m reading this right, this entire QB class (except for Penix) gets a mark against them on this data point? I know there is the caveat that this is one data point and we don’t want to fade them based on just this, but is that kinda what this is pointing to? Or maybe just that Penix is being undersold because of the bizarre situation he is in.

[Bronco Billy]

So, if I’m reading this right, this entire QB class (except for Penix) gets a mark against them on this data point? I know there is the caveat that this is one data point and we don’t want to fade them based on just this, but is that kinda what this is pointing to? Or maybe just that Penix is being undersold because of the bizarre situation he is in.

From what I’m seeing, the top 6 rookie QBs less Penix are in a statistical group where there currently is a 92% chance that they’ll either be nondescript QBs or busts.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So, if I’m reading this right, this entire QB class (except for Penix) gets a mark against them on this data point? I know there is the caveat that this is one data point and we don’t want to fade them based on just this, but is that kinda what this is pointing to? Or maybe just that Penix is being undersold because of the bizarre situation he is in.

From what I’m seeing, the top 6 rookie QBs less Penix are in a statistical group where there currently is a 92% chance that they’ll either be nondescript QBs or busts.

Yeah. I did sort of arbitrarily make the cutoffs, but even if you switched them around a bit, the hit rate is still pretty poor.

I might have to go back and separate the top 5, or top 10 draft picks and see if that helps the hit rates or not.

With his rushing, you could argue Jayden Daniel’s could be on a Lamar Jackson or pre-injury RGIII career path, which is great. Also worth mentioning Daniel’s College QBR also puts him in elite company. It’s the rest of the qbs I’m struggling to find a good comp for in that grouping.

(Edit: another thing worth mentioning is the Covid year may have made things a little more funky than usual)

I think the best takeaway is that Penix is likely criminally undervalued.

[Sriracha]

So, if I’m reading this right, this entire QB class (except for Penix) gets a mark against them on this data point? I know there is the caveat that this is one data point and we don’t want to fade them based on just this, but is that kinda what this is pointing to? Or maybe just that Penix is being undersold because of the bizarre situation he is in.

From what I’m seeing, the top 6 rookie QBs less Penix are in a statistical group where there currently is a 92% chance that they’ll either be nondescript QBs or busts.

Yeah. I did sort of arbitrarily make the cutoffs, but even if you switched them around a bit, the hit rate is still pretty poor.

I might have to go back and separate the top 5, or top 10 draft picks and see if that helps the hit rates or not.

With his rushing, you could argue Jayden Daniel’s could be on a Lamar Jackson or pre-injury RGIII career path, which is great. Also worth mentioning Daniel’s College QBR also puts him in elite company. It’s the rest of the qbs I’m struggling to find a good comp for in that grouping.

(Edit: another thing worth mentioning is the Covid year may have made things a little more funky than usual)

I think the best takeaway is that Penix is likely criminally undervalued.

I've never seen the fantasy community so mum on a top 10 QB with 4.46 wheels.

You'd think that people would've learned from Fields that just because a QB didn't run in college it doesn't mean they won't in the NFL.

[Jigga94]

From what I’m seeing, the top 6 rookie QBs less Penix are in a statistical group where there currently is a 92% chance that they’ll either be nondescript QBs or busts.

Yeah. I did sort of arbitrarily make the cutoffs, but even if you switched them around a bit, the hit rate is still pretty poor.

I might have to go back and separate the top 5, or top 10 draft picks and see if that helps the hit rates or not.

With his rushing, you could argue Jayden Daniel’s could be on a Lamar Jackson or pre-injury RGIII career path, which is great. Also worth mentioning Daniel’s College QBR also puts him in elite company. It’s the rest of the qbs I’m struggling to find a good comp for in that grouping.

(Edit: another thing worth mentioning is the Covid year may have made things a little more funky than usual)

I think the best takeaway is that Penix is likely criminally undervalued.

I've never seen the fantasy community so mum on a top 10 QB with 4.46 wheels.

You'd think that people would've learned from Fields that just because a QB didn't run in college it doesn't mean they won't in the NFL.

I see what you're saying, but using Fields as a barometer is straight comedy

[Bronco Billy]

Yeah. I did sort of arbitrarily make the cutoffs, but even if you switched them around a bit, the hit rate is still pretty poor.

I might have to go back and separate the top 5, or top 10 draft picks and see if that helps the hit rates or not.

With his rushing, you could argue Jayden Daniel’s could be on a Lamar Jackson or pre-injury RGIII career path, which is great. Also worth mentioning Daniel’s College QBR also puts him in elite company. It’s the rest of the qbs I’m struggling to find a good comp for in that grouping.

(Edit: another thing worth mentioning is the Covid year may have made things a little more funky than usual)

I think the best takeaway is that Penix is likely criminally undervalued.

I've never seen the fantasy community so mum on a top 10 QB with 4.46 wheels.

You'd think that people would've learned from Fields that just because a QB didn't run in college it doesn't mean they won't in the NFL.

I see what you're saying, but using Fields as a barometer is straight comedy

Could have used Jake Locker.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Interesting and makes sense. I want to see Trey Lance's numbers in this study

From what I could tell he wouldn't qualify, as he only started and played meaningful games in his sophomore season. So no back-to-back comparisons.

His junior year before coming out it appears he only played in one game.

[Sriracha]

I've never seen the fantasy community so mum on a top 10 QB with 4.46 wheels.

You'd think that people would've learned from Fields that just because a QB didn't run in college it doesn't mean they won't in the NFL.

I see what you're saying, but using Fields as a barometer is straight comedy

As someone who was very pessimistic about Fields the irony is not lost on me.

[mild]

I think the best takeaway is that Penix is likely criminally undervalued.

I've never seen the fantasy community so mum on a top 10 QB with 4.46 wheels.

You'd think that people would've learned from Fields that just because a QB didn't run in college it doesn't mean they won't in the NFL.

Full co-sign on Penix being incredibly undervalued.

But there's no chance that dude is about to become a Justin Fields level rusher. Nor should we want him to... mans literally has knee surgeries to both knees.

It does show up, though. Nobody was better at avoiding sacks under pressure in this class. He navigates the pocket really well.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So this metric seems pretty solid for rounds 1-3. But what about day 3 QBs. Went through the past 5 years of rookie classes plus this years, for rounds 4-7. Basically, it does tend to identify the better day 3 QB's, but it also includes a lot of trash with it as well. But I think you could at least use it as a tool to narrow down your options.


The 0-6% Change Group
Jake Haener 45% (45%)
Michael Pratt 45% (48%)
James Morgan 43% (46%)
Max Duggan 53% (56%)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson 44% (48%)
Brock Purdy 37% (42%)
Jarrett Stidham 56% (61%)

The 7-15% Change Group (The grouping with the best QB's in rounds 1-3)
Aidan O’Connell 32% (43%)
Clayton Tune 33% (40%)
Ian Book 33% (41%)
Jake Fromm 33% (47%)

The 16%+ Change Group
Gardner Minshew 32% (50%)
Stetson Bennett 33% (59%)
Sean Clifford 42% (67%)
Sam Ehlinger 31% (50%)
Ryan Finley 28% (59%)
Trace McSorley 22% (43%)

_______________________________________________________


Full Results

2024
Spencer Rattler 47% (39%)
Jordan Travis 45% (42%)
Joe Milton 55%
Devin Leary 36% (43%, but 2 years prior and different team)
Michael Pratt 45% (48%)

2023
Jake Haener 45% (45%)
Stetson Bennett 33% (59%)
Aidan O’Connell 32% (43%)
Clayton Tune 33% (40%)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson 44% (48%)
Sean Clifford 42% (67%)
Jaren Hall 58% (40%)
Tanner McKee 54% (27%)
Max Duggan 53% (56%)

2022
Bailey Zappe 40%
Sam Howell 67% (60%)
Chris Oladokun
Skylar Thompson 42%
Brock Purdy 37% (42%)

2021
Ian Book 33% (41%)
Sam Ehlinger 31% (50%)

2020
Jacob Eason 43%
James Morgan 43% (46%)
Jake Fromm 33% (47%)
Jake Luton 46% (30% not full season)
Cole McDonald 45% (39%)
Ben Dinucci (no data)
Tommy Stevens 54%
Nate Stanley 38% (31%)


2019
Ryan Finley 28% (59%)
Jarrett Stidham 56% (61%)
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson 65% (20%)
Gardner Minshew 32% (50%)
Trace McSorley 22% (43%)

[Valhalla]

If we sort the players by percentage changed;

...

This post was really eye-opening and a real damper on the QB class this year. The only one to break the mold is a golden rusher, a mold breaker. The rookies have to bust this statistical trend, break the mold.
It's not a really compelling reason (for me anyways) to stay clear away from the QBs this year, but you never like to see a strong correlative statistical cluster going against your guy(s).

[Anteaters]

The 7-15% Change Group (The grouping with the best QB's in rounds 1-3)
Aidan O’Connell 32% (43%)

Always on O'Connell!!!