Post Draft top 12 1 QB

[mild]

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season.

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Preach CG.

To quote JJZ of the Late Round Podcast:

If we’re talking data, you should like Xavier Worthy because he has a great age-adjusted production profile, not because of his 40**

**that was fkn awesome

And now he's on the freakin' Mahomes Chiefs.

[mgscott]

Tank Dell was on pace for 1000 as a rookie last year as a 3rd rounder. Marquise Brown has already hit 1000 before. Cole Beasley caught 80+ in a season. Addison hit 911 as a rookie. Downs was good last year.

It's a different game. It's not nearly as brutal physically, players are protected better, and the league has gotten so much better at route concepts that favor pure separation ability. If Worthy is a bust, it will have nothing to do with how much he weighs.

Both these things can be true at the same time. Basically the only player who has ever been successful close to Xavier's weight is Smith. AND... this is a different NFL nowadays where lighter players can be successful (I think).

I have a feeling KC will put him into motion a TON... and line him up so that corners can't get a hand on him before he's 'off and running'.

If there's one system in the NFL who I think can maximize Xavier's skillset via scheme KC's braintrust has to be near the top of that list.

You guys ever heard of Desean Jackson?

5'10... 175lbs... 4.35 40...

Now, remind me... I guess I've forgotten... who was his coach again...?

Chip Kelly

[wickerkat1212]

Worthy the new Tyreek?

[mgscott]

Worthy the new Tyreek?

He's closer to Mecole than Tyreek

[Cameron Giles]

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season.

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Preach CG.

To quote JJZ of the Late Round Podcast:

If we’re talking data, you should like Xavier Worthy because he has a great age-adjusted production profile, not because of his 40**

**that was fkn awesome

And now he's on the freakin' Mahomes Chiefs.

Yeah, I've said this in a few threads, but I feel like we're not talking enough about how Xavier Worthy:

+ Has a true freshman breakout in a P5
+ A true early declare
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Got 1st round pedigree
+ Has good age-adjusted production
+ Checks out well in receiving yards per team pass attempt

All of the above are usually good signs. And he got a good landing spot? That's a good combination. I have some questions about his game, but I don't like acting like he's some Day 3 guy who got boosted because of Mahomes and an all-time great 40.

[wickerkat1212]

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Preach CG.

To quote JJZ of the Late Round Podcast:

If we’re talking data, you should like Xavier Worthy because he has a great age-adjusted production profile, not because of his 40**

**that was fkn awesome

And now he's on the freakin' Mahomes Chiefs.

Yeah, I've said this in a few threads, but I feel like we're not talking enough about how Xavier Worthy:

+ Has a true freshman breakout in a P5
+ A true early declare
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Got 1st round pedigree
+ Has good age-adjusted production
+ Checks out well in receiving yards per team pass attempt

All of the above are usually good signs. And he got a good landing spot? That's a good combination. I have some questions about his game, but I don't like acting like he's some Day 3 guy who got boosted because of Mahomes and an all-time great 40.

The analytics are strong. He's in discussion to be the WR4/5 in this class.

[Jigga94]

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Preach CG.

To quote JJZ of the Late Round Podcast:

If we’re talking data, you should like Xavier Worthy because he has a great age-adjusted production profile, not because of his 40**

**that was fkn awesome

And now he's on the freakin' Mahomes Chiefs.

Yeah, I've said this in a few threads, but I feel like we're not talking enough about how Xavier Worthy:

+ Has a true freshman breakout in a P5
+ A true early declare
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Got 1st round pedigree
+ Has good age-adjusted production
+ Checks out well in receiving yards per team pass attempt

All of the above are usually good signs. And he got a good landing spot? That's a good combination. I have some questions about his game, but I don't like acting like he's some Day 3 guy who got boosted because of Mahomes and an all-time great 40.

Feels a bit like Rondale Moore in ways but I can't lie that the landing spot has me intrigued

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Preach CG.

To quote JJZ of the Late Round Podcast:



And now he's on the freakin' Mahomes Chiefs.

Yeah, I've said this in a few threads, but I feel like we're not talking enough about how Xavier Worthy:

+ Has a true freshman breakout in a P5
+ A true early declare
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Got 1st round pedigree
+ Has good age-adjusted production
+ Checks out well in receiving yards per team pass attempt

All of the above are usually good signs. And he got a good landing spot? That's a good combination. I have some questions about his game, but I don't like acting like he's some Day 3 guy who got boosted because of Mahomes and an all-time great 40.

Feels a bit like Rondale Moore in ways but I can't lie that the landing spot has me intrigued

I haven’t watched much film on Worthy but I did on Rondale and it was all stuff close to the LOS, he was used as a weapon / gadget player and not as a real wr in college. For whatever that is worth.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, I've said this in a few threads, but I feel like we're not talking enough about how Xavier Worthy:

+ Has a true freshman breakout in a P5
+ A true early declare
+ Turned 21 years old a few days ago
+ Got 1st round pedigree
+ Has good age-adjusted production
+ Checks out well in receiving yards per team pass attempt

All of the above are usually good signs. And he got a good landing spot? That's a good combination. I have some questions about his game, but I don't like acting like he's some Day 3 guy who got boosted because of Mahomes and an all-time great 40.

Feels a bit like Rondale Moore in ways but I can't lie that the landing spot has me intrigued

I haven’t watched much film on Worthy but I did on Rondale and it was all stuff close to the LOS, he was used as a weapon / gadget player and not as a real wr in college. For whatever that is worth.

Yeah, and Worthy is a career 13.7 aDOT

[mild]

Feels a bit like Rondale Moore in ways but I can't lie that the landing spot has me intrigued

I haven’t watched much film on Worthy but I did on Rondale and it was all stuff close to the LOS, he was used as a weapon / gadget player and not as a real wr in college. For whatever that is worth.

Yeah, and Worthy is a career 13.7 aDOT

Ewers also missed him downfield at the highest rate in the class (a hilariously bad 40% off target rate over 15 yards, nobody else in the WR class was above 30%)

Gonna go out on a limb and say there might be an upgrade in downfield target quality with Mahomes... just a hunch of mine.

[Shcritters]

Giles, Mild… go read what I said again (instead of only quoting the first part). It is true that in the last 10 years the only very light WR who has been a WR1 is DSmith.

AND… I think weight is mattering less and less. Small guys tend to get jammed up by more physical corners… and I’m pretty sure that Ried is going to keep him in perpetual motion to give him a running start so that nobody can get hands on him. This is about the best situation he could have landed in.

I’ve got one league where I’ve got 1.09-1.11… pretty sure he’s going to be on my roster in that league.

[PigeonBoys]

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season.

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Not moving the goal posts at all, this was not a comment directed at Worthy at all, more so the sentiment that smaller WR's are all of a sudden able to be WR1's and are "successful." Well lets first define what is a success because for a smaller WR their ceiling is capped so success is in relation to their ceiling. I never said or even insinuated that those players were poor because of their weight, I am giving you a list of players with a similar size weight to Dell, Worthy, etc. so you can get a sense for "successful" these types of WR's have actually been. You must've missed my entire point and the data set which was yes they are becoming more common but common as niche players still, not your highly valuable WR1's or even 2's for that matter. For every one success story there are 20 other busts, heck see the list of first rounders I supplied earlier, there were several smaller WR's that got first round capital and are nowhere near leading WR's on their own teams. All this to say as a word of caution, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction where we're giving up elite draft capital for these small WR's that every data set will tell us is an outlier.

[Cameron Giles]

So we have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a guy of the similar size putting up a WR1 season.

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Not moving the goal posts at all, this was not a comment directed at Worthy at all, more so the sentiment that smaller WR's are all of a sudden able to be WR1's and are "successful." Well lets first define what is a success because for a smaller WR their ceiling is capped so success is in relation to their ceiling. I never said or even insinuated that those players were poor because of their weight, I am giving you a list of players with a similar size weight to Dell, Worthy, etc. so you can get a sense for "successful" these types of WR's have actually been. You must've missed my entire point and the data set which was yes they are becoming more common but common as niche players still, not your highly valuable WR1's or even 2's for that matter. For every one success story there are 20 other busts, heck see the list of first rounders I supplied earlier, there were several smaller WR's that got first round capital and are nowhere near leading WR's on their own teams. All this to say as a word of caution, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction where we're giving up elite draft capital for these small WR's that every data set will tell us is an outlier.

That is moving the goal posts though because that was not the discussion. The sentiment is that they are able to translate their game, be fantasy relevant and their weight is not a barrier to doing so. They are not niche players. These are players who are significant parts of their offense and get volume. This isn't Jakeem Grant getting a reverse sweep every other game. KC is going to look to use Worthy a lot.

Turning it into, "well how many of them became WR1" is a completely different conversation. You can look at any archetype of a WR and find a ton of misses for every stud. Most players drafted aren't going to be fantasy relevant, let alone Top 12 WRs, so it's nothing new. I can give you a long list of players with ideal athleticism and size who were terrible.

[PigeonBoys]

This is moving the goal posts. The discussion is not "Is Xavier Worthy a WR1?". The discussion is whether his weight is a detriment to his game translating to the next level. And based on similar and recent examples, the answer is no. The NFL has been trending in this direction for a while and there are no signs that it's stopping.

Even if you look at a player like Tutu Atwell, the reason he's bad has nothing to do with weight.

Not moving the goal posts at all, this was not a comment directed at Worthy at all, more so the sentiment that smaller WR's are all of a sudden able to be WR1's and are "successful." Well lets first define what is a success because for a smaller WR their ceiling is capped so success is in relation to their ceiling. I never said or even insinuated that those players were poor because of their weight, I am giving you a list of players with a similar size weight to Dell, Worthy, etc. so you can get a sense for "successful" these types of WR's have actually been. You must've missed my entire point and the data set which was yes they are becoming more common but common as niche players still, not your highly valuable WR1's or even 2's for that matter. For every one success story there are 20 other busts, heck see the list of first rounders I supplied earlier, there were several smaller WR's that got first round capital and are nowhere near leading WR's on their own teams. All this to say as a word of caution, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction where we're giving up elite draft capital for these small WR's that every data set will tell us is an outlier.

That is moving the goal posts though because that was not the discussion. The sentiment is that they are able to translate their game, be fantasy relevant and their weight is not a barrier to doing so. They are not niche players. These are players who are significant parts of their offense and get volume. This isn't Jakeem Grant getting a reverse sweep every other game. KC is going to look to use Worthy a lot.

Turning it into, "well how many of them became WR1" is a completely different conversation. You can look at any archetype of a WR and find a ton of misses for every stud. Most players drafted aren't going to be fantasy relevant, let alone Top 12 WRs, so it's nothing new. I can give you a long list of players with ideal athleticism and size who were terrible.

Dude what are you talking about, this is the quote I replied to,. "Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms." How is that moving the goal posts? Agreeing with someone else's sentiment. I don't care what you were trying to say, I'm trying to make a point that is obviously going over your head.

I guess we really disagree on fantasy relevance, that they are not niche players, and that they play significant roles in the offense and get volume. Agree to disagree wholeheartedly. Please cite one other than Devonta Smith? Literally every other WR is pigeon holed into a niche role. If you disagree show your work. D jax was brought up...from 2013 thats how far back we have to go to find another smaller WR to that extent getting volume and the role. I find this discussion so interesting because there's not a lot of data to show your work, I use data to drive my decision making and I just don't see these smaller WR's having the kind of success you think they are. Again please show your work, smaller WR's are becoming more successful. Are they? They are certainly more prevalent and add another wrinkle to the game but they are not too valuable insofar as fantasy assets.

[Cameron Giles]

Dude what are you talking about, this is the quote I replied to,. "Yes, the NFL is giving more opportunities to smaller WR's. However, the average weight of the 2024 WR class was still 196 pounds. Xavier weighs 30 pounds less than that. To say that isn't a factor is hard for me to get on board with. It is no longer a death knoll, but he is still an outlier to NFL norms." How is that moving the goal posts? Agreeing with someone else's sentiment. I don't care what you were trying to say, I'm trying to make a point that is obviously going over your head.

And this is what you replied to that comment with

"I'll argue this one till I'm blue in the face but weight and BMI still make a difference. I am not on the Tank Dell hype train even before the Diggs trade or the shooting. I implored anyone to give me a WR that has posted a WR1 season at 165 lbs like Dell has and the closest is Devonta Smith who did it once at 170+ and has been a WR 2 since."

The discussion was not about Worthy or players of similar size becoming WR1s. It is about whether weight prevents them from transitioning their game to this level. Those are two completely different topics. Nothing you're saying is going over my head. It just isn't a part of the overall discussion.

Tank Dell was on pace for 80/1096/10 before a weird injury derailed his season. How is that a niche role? Addison had 70/911/10 as a rookie. Marquise Brown has a 1000 yard season. How are these niche players when they are getting volume and running complete route trees? Evaluating them on whether they have been WR1s before is not the same conclusion.