Trading down 1.03 to 1.05

[Nflnz]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

[MacDaddy123]

Good value, probably.

[TheTroll]

I’d probably do that in SF

[tstafford]

Good value, probably.

This is well said.

On paper, it looks really good. I always want to get the last guy in a tier and, in theory, 1.05 will net an "elite" prospect. The problem is that as we move down even one slot we absorb more risk about the results of the NFL Draft. Odds are that a couple of the consensus top-6/7 will land badly. Example: some number of FF managers are more or less going to be out on whoever goes to NEP. The higher up in the draft you are, the more insulated you are from that risk.

I'm still doing this deal because I'm a gambler. The value is excellent. But the safe play is to stand pat.

[The.Big.Spank]

Good value, probably.

This is well said.

On paper, it looks really good. I always want to get the last guy in a tier and, in theory, 1.05 will net an "elite" prospect. The problem is that as we move down even one slot we absorb more risk about the results of the NFL Draft. Odds are that a couple of the consensus top-6/7 will land badly. Example: some number of FF managers are more or less going to be out on whoever goes to NEP. The higher up in the draft you are, the more insulated you are from that risk.

I'm still doing this deal because I'm a gambler. The value is excellent. But the safe play is to stand pat.

Perfect.

[Black Adam]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

No.

Rather take the 2.10 shot on an RB since you don't even have two starting running backs to rub together. (Pause.)

Paying a late 2nd to move down two slots just to pick up a 2025 1st won't help you this year, unless we can agree your team won't be competitive, I don't see the point.

[Viking386]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

No.

Rather take the 2.10 shot on an RB since you don't even have two starting running backs to rub together. (Pause.)

Paying a late 2nd to move down two slots just to pick up a 2025 1st won't help you this year, unless we can agree your team won't be competitive, I don't see the point.

This doesnt look like a team contending at all this season and the 25 class is loaded with RB. No need to fill the RB spot this season. Id easily take this trade. You could land Maye or Odunze then stash another 25 1st to hit RB next year.

[Mtt33]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

No.

Rather take the 2.10 shot on an RB since you don't even have two starting running backs to rub together. (Pause.)

Paying a late 2nd to move down two slots just to pick up a 2025 1st won't help you this year, unless we can agree your team won't be competitive, I don't see the point.

I think the point is that you move down 2 slots and trade 2.10 for a much better asset?

This is a slam dunk for me.

[Viking386]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

No.

Rather take the 2.10 shot on an RB since you don't even have two starting running backs to rub together. (Pause.)

Paying a late 2nd to move down two slots just to pick up a 2025 1st won't help you this year, unless we can agree your team won't be competitive, I don't see the point.

I think the point is that you move down 2 slots and trade 2.10 for a much better asset?

This is a slam dunk for me.

Yes, there is no need to fill roster spots in April. You take value

[kellysheroes]

in SF your giving up MHj or Nabers or QB2... no thanks. the 2.10 needs to come out of it

[Mtt33]

in SF your giving up MHj or Nabers or QB2... no thanks. the 2.10 needs to come out of it

And you’re getting Nabers or qb3 who everyone is going to debate vs qb2, and a 2025 1st.

[Tvols]

Good value, probably.

This is well said.

On paper, it looks really good. I always want to get the last guy in a tier and, in theory, 1.05 will net an "elite" prospect. The problem is that as we move down even one slot we absorb more risk about the results of the NFL Draft. Odds are that a couple of the consensus top-6/7 will land badly. Example: some number of FF managers are more or less going to be out on whoever goes to NEP. The higher up in the draft you are, the more insulated you are from that risk.

I'm still doing this deal because I'm a gambler. The value is excellent. But the safe play is to stand pat.

Perfect.

+++

[MacDaddy123]

Good value, probably.

This is well said.

On paper, it looks really good. I always want to get the last guy in a tier and, in theory, 1.05 will net an "elite" prospect. The problem is that as we move down even one slot we absorb more risk about the results of the NFL Draft. Odds are that a couple of the consensus top-6/7 will land badly. Example: some number of FF managers are more or less going to be out on whoever goes to NEP. The higher up in the draft you are, the more insulated you are from that risk.

I'm still doing this deal because I'm a gambler. The value is excellent. But the safe play is to stand pat.

True, in the absolute sense. You would think that the higher pick would get you the better player.
However, this has proven to be false over and over again, even by NFL front offices.

I had 1.05 in 2 leagues last year where my QB room was pretty solid, so I picked JSN over CJ Stroud at 1.05 twice, and let Stroud fall to 1.06.
Definitely regret that decision, as I am sure that many managers who drafted Bryce Young and ARich over Stroud have come to regret it too.

In the future, given that choice, perhaps I should take 1 share of each player, just in case.
A way of hedging one's bets.

[NathanielWegman]

Unless I overlooked it I didn’t see how many teams are in the league? If it’s only 10-12, it makes me more hesitant to move down in this trade.
But the value is there. You move down 2 slots, still get value and move up at minimum 10-11 spots next year when the RB class is going to be loaded compared to this year

[Black Adam]

For the team below, would you do this trade down?

Give 1.03 & 2.10
Get 1.05 & 2025 1st


League is Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3FLX, 1SF

Team (notable players)
QB: Stroud, Baker, Rodgers, Lance
RB: Chandler, Kendre, Dowdle (Yikes)
WR: Puka, JSN, Deebo, Reed, Mims, Douglas, Perry
TE: LaPorta, Njoku, Waller
Picks: 1.03, 1.09, 2.03, 2.04, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08, 4.03 & all future picks

No.

Rather take the 2.10 shot on an RB since you don't even have two starting running backs to rub together. (Pause.)

Paying a late 2nd to move down two slots just to pick up a 2025 1st won't help you this year, unless we can agree your team won't be competitive, I don't see the point.

This doesnt look like a team contending at all this season and the 25 class is loaded with RB. No need to fill the RB spot this season. Id easily take this trade. You could land Maye or Odunze then stash another 25 1st to hit RB next year.

Not sold on Maye, especially short-term, and I'm not as high on Odunze as the other two receivers, so I'm staying put this year, drafting the better prospect, and taking a shot on an RB this year.

His team isn't great so I'm sure he'll have an early pick next year too.