Next level rookie QB

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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mild
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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby mild » Tue Apr 09, 2024 3:55 pm

Menace2010 wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 3:21 pm That's fascinating. Not referencing any talking heads, literally just watching that game I remember like 3x where Odunze was wide open and nothing happened. Either Penix wasn't looking his way, which seems crazy, or wasn't able to go through his reads under pressure. I don't have strong views one way or the other, but it jumped off the screen to me. Do you guys think his evaluation is more closely aligned with evaluations pre or post that game?
I personally think we're overthinking it with him. A lot.

He goes through his reads and has excellent arm strength. He's not as finesse with his arm talent as the best players in the league, but that's also why he's currently projected as the QB5 or 6 in this draft. He doesn't layer his throws like a Mahomes, he gets by on raw strength and just rips it instead. It absolutely gets him into trouble sometimes. It also results in big plays due to the aggression downfield. He will need to learn to be patient underneath in the league.

Yes, he was playing with a stacked NFL level cast. He also succeeded with them to outrageous statistical and team success, so we can't "double count" that against his profile. He did what he should have done with them.

Take injury out of the evaluation. Injury can come for any QB at any time. If his medicals are clear, and a team takes him in the first 32 picks - then that means they were comfortable with that, and we should (somewhat) be too.

There are obvious drawbacks. He will need a landing spot with a good infrastructure and coaching. (If he lands in Vegas I'm likely out)
He's not a rushing QB, even if he did run a 4.4. He's an older prospect, so he's likely more maxed out in his understanding and maturity with the game - unlike a 21 year old Drake Maye - and that's why he's QB5 instead of higher.

If he reunites with his old OC in SEA, I'll be throwing a 2nd at him in any leagues that give me a chance.

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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 09, 2024 3:57 pm

Menace2010 wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 3:21 pm
tstafford wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 2:58 pm
mild wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 2:32 pm

Ironically, a lot of people believe that if he'd lost to Texas he'd be going a lot higher...
100%. The difference in the way he was discussed b/w the two games and after is ridiculous.
That's fascinating. Not referencing any talking heads, literally just watching that game I remember like 3x where Odunze was wide open and nothing happened. Either Penix wasn't looking his way, which seems crazy, or wasn't able to go through his reads under pressure. I don't have strong views one way or the other, but it jumped off the screen to me. Do you guys think his evaluation is more closely aligned with evaluations pre or post that game?
The RP report is analysis based on his entire season and really drills down into his ability to throw to all levels and areas of the field under all circumstances, as well as how he operates inside and outside the pocket. They did not have much good to say about him and backed it up with solid data.

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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby 81- » Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:42 pm

murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 6:25 am
81- wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:31 pm I wouldn't touch Rattler with a 10ft pole. But feel free to waste a late pick on him if you are so inclined.

Actually, I wouldn't touch any past the top six.

I also feel like once you go past six at any position you are throwing a dart.

I'd rather throw that dart at a wr or RB before a qb
I disagree with almost everything in here. Rattler is completely boom or bust, but a late pick can't be wasted in my mind. You just drop and move on with no meaningful harm done. There are a lot of valuable players after the top 6 at virtually every position every year, just takes some work and research.

I do agree that the dart throws bear more fruit when they are thrown at WR and RB.


Yes. The draft is deeper than six but the father you get from one, the lower the hit rate. If you draft Rattler you'll have wasted a dart.
12 Team, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex, D, K, 10 Bench
1PPR, 0.5 point per carry.
Burrow, Richardson
AJ Brown, DJMoore, G Wilson, T Higgens, Sutton, Tillman, Melton
King Henry, Bijan, Pacheco, Mixon, Ford, JK
Hockenson, Musgrave
Random Kicker
Niners

Picks in 2024 - #15, #22, #23, #27

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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby TheTroll » Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:56 pm

81- wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:42 pm
murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 6:25 am
81- wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:31 pm I wouldn't touch Rattler with a 10ft pole. But feel free to waste a late pick on him if you are so inclined.

Actually, I wouldn't touch any past the top six.

I also feel like once you go past six at any position you are throwing a dart.

I'd rather throw that dart at a wr or RB before a qb
I disagree with almost everything in here. Rattler is completely boom or bust, but a late pick can't be wasted in my mind. You just drop and move on with no meaningful harm done. There are a lot of valuable players after the top 6 at virtually every position every year, just takes some work and research.

I do agree that the dart throws bear more fruit when they are thrown at WR and RB.


Yes. The draft is deeper than six but the father you get from one, the lower the hit rate. If you draft Rattler you'll have wasted a dart.
You know in an Dynasty League in Great Britain, the dart throwers are worth a ton!
Team 1
Dynasty 10 team, 22 roster + 6 Taxi, PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, Def

QB: Love, Goff, Fields
RB: Bijan, Montgomery, Kamara, Ford, K Herbert, Zeke, Mattison
WR: Jefferson, Olave, London, Ridley, Sutton, Shaheed
TE: Kincaid, Kittle, Freiermuth
K: Tucker, Sanders
DEF: CLE

Taxi: Charbs, K Mitchell, Demercado, QJ, D Douglas, W Robinson, Hooker

Picks
2024: 1.03, 3.06, 3.09, 4.09
2025: 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Team 2
Dynasty 10 team, 22 man roster + 6 Taxi, PPR, SF and TEP
1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 S Flex

QB: Allen, Goff, Watson, Jones
RB: K Williams, B Robinson, Chubb, Ford, Mostert, A Gibson, Dillon, Pierce, Zeke
WR: Olave, T Hill, Addison, D Adams, C Watson, D Johnson, G Davis, OBJ
TE: Kincaid, Kmet, Goedert

Taxi: Mitchell, DTR, Mims, K Miller, Douglas, Vaughn

Picks
2024: 1.08, 3.02, 3.09
2025: 1, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby wickerkat1212 » Tue Apr 09, 2024 10:02 pm

I'm not targeting anyone outside the top six. I don't think they are worth it.
D3:
QB—Allen, Pickett RB—Kamara, Jacobs, ZWhite, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Tillman, Marshall, Jefferson, Robinson, Tucker TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, Rodriguez, Spiller WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Myers, Reynold, Jones TE—Kmet, Likely, Kraft, Conklin, Hurst, Hudson PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: Bijan, BRob, ZWhite, Allgeier, McLaughlin WR: DJM, Higgins, JSN, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, Hutchinson, Iosivas, Devante, CJones TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Trautman, Tremble

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Re: Next level rookie QB

Postby 81- » Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:47 pm

TheTroll wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:56 pm
81- wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:42 pm
murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 09, 2024 6:25 am

I disagree with almost everything in here. Rattler is completely boom or bust, but a late pick can't be wasted in my mind. You just drop and move on with no meaningful harm done. There are a lot of valuable players after the top 6 at virtually every position every year, just takes some work and research.

I do agree that the dart throws bear more fruit when they are thrown at WR and RB.


Yes. The draft is deeper than six but the father you get from one, the lower the hit rate. If you draft Rattler you'll have wasted a dart.
You know in an Dynasty League in Great Britain, the dart throwers are worth a ton!
I've had a pint in great britian and a beer engine pint state side. I think the former deducts 3 from your natural draft slot and the follow ads a +1.

Unless you in the top five. That bends the math
12 Team, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex, D, K, 10 Bench
1PPR, 0.5 point per carry.
Burrow, Richardson
AJ Brown, DJMoore, G Wilson, T Higgens, Sutton, Tillman, Melton
King Henry, Bijan, Pacheco, Mixon, Ford, JK
Hockenson, Musgrave
Random Kicker
Niners

Picks in 2024 - #15, #22, #23, #27


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