Next level rookie QB

[mild]

I would not have called the situation in SF a locked-in QB situation. Jimmy G hasn't been healthy since I could run a mile, and anyone who had good sense knew Trey was only more playing time away from playing himself out of being a starting QB.

I agree I might not have chose Purdy, MR irreverent, as my darkhorse rookie QB choice of that draft, but it wouldn't have been because the QB situation in SF looked rosy and set in stone.

If you can show me any of your leagues where you drafted Purdy in the rookie draft, I'd be all for seeing it. And I'd be impressed.

Let's not act like Purdy is a repeatable or teachable situation that people saw coming. He was a mid-season Waiver hero that has turned into a real asset.

It's far more likely that there won't be a Purdy in this draft, than there will be one. A 6th round pick that rises from 3rd on the depth chart to starter because of injury, and keeps the job? Cool... feel free to tell us whose going to pull off that trick next...

[Anteaters]

I would not have called the situation in SF a locked-in QB situation. Jimmy G hasn't been healthy since I could run a mile, and anyone who had good sense knew Trey was only more playing time away from playing himself out of being a starting QB.

I agree I might not have chose Purdy, MR irreverent, as my darkhorse rookie QB choice of that draft, but it wouldn't have been because the QB situation in SF looked rosy and set in stone.

If you can show me any of your leagues where you drafted Purdy in the rookie draft, I'd be all for seeing it. And I'd be impressed.

Let's not act like Purdy is a repeatable or teachable situation that people saw coming. He was a mid-season Waiver hero that has turned into a real asset.

It's far more likely that there won't be a Purdy in this draft, than there will be one. A 6th round pick that rises from 3rd on the depth chart to starter because of injury, and keeps the job? Cool... feel free to tell us whose going to pull off that trick next...

I think you're looking at this the wrong way. Purdy isn't a rookie QB dart throw that hit.

Instead, look at Purdy as the absolute last pick in the draft becoming a fantasy starter. Now if you can show me another example of that happening, I'll agree to start working with you to work out an algorithm to make that scenario predictable.

Instead, I'd rather say Purdy is a 1 of 1 situation that will probably never be replicated in the next 20 years. As such, he's the sort of example that doesn't bear examining too much because it's simply not going to happen again.

When I'm figuring out dynasty stragegies, I'm focusing on situations more likely to happen that I can target. Hurts gives me something to work with. Puka gives me something to work with. Purdy is a magic trick. I got no answers for that one.

OTOH, AOC was fairly predictable. JimmyG had been more injured than healthy the previous 4 years. The team had a new unproven HC/OC. The other QB on the roster was a 38 year old never was who was past his prime and his prime was puke worthy. This was a situation we could have predicted a rookie QB might get a chance. Especially a mature rookie who had several years experience as a starter in a P5 conference.

[Bronco Billy]

Instead, look at Purdy as the absolute last pick in the draft becoming a fantasy starter. Now if you can show me another example of that happening, I'll agree to start working with you to work out an algorithm to make that scenario predictable.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was selected within 5 slots of the last pick in the draft. That ought to be close enough for you. I’m looking forward to seeing your algorithm.

[CGW]

My answer would be none of them. You aren't going to find a late round QB that ends up with a meaningful career with any sort of regularity. Don't get me wrong, I still grab these dart throws in SF when they are sitting around for free and I have roster space, but I'm not expecting much. Generally, you are looking for a relatively stable team with a path to starting. Predraft, we have no idea who's in that type of situation to even make a guess.

[murphysxm]

I wouldn't touch Rattler with a 10ft pole. But feel free to waste a late pick on him if you are so inclined.

Actually, I wouldn't touch any past the top six.

I also feel like once you go past six at any position you are throwing a dart.

I'd rather throw that dart at a wr or RB before a qb

I disagree with almost everything in here. Rattler is completely boom or bust, but a late pick can't be wasted in my mind. You just drop and move on with no meaningful harm done. There are a lot of valuable players after the top 6 at virtually every position every year, just takes some work and research.

I do agree that the dart throws bear more fruit when they are thrown at WR and RB.

[Paul717]

Late to this thread, but following! Does everyone have the QBs roughly tiered as:

Tier 1:
Caleb Williams
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels

Tier 2: (of course, the NFL draft will tell us a lot and some of these might be drafted early)
J.J. McCarthy
Michael Penix
Bo Nix (apologies if the "Big 6" are understood to be slightly different?)

Tier 3:
Spencer Rattler
Joe Milton
Jordan Travis
Spencer Sanders?
Others?

[Bronco Billy]

Late to this thread, but following! Does everyone have the QBs roughly tiered as:

Tier 1:
Caleb Williams
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels

Tier 2: (of course, the NFL draft will tell us a lot and some of these might be drafted early)
J.J. McCarthy
Michael Penix
Bo Nix (apologies if the "Big 6" are understood to be slightly different?)

Tier 3:
Spencer Rattler
Joe Milton
Jordan Travis
Spencer Sanders?
Others?

I have McCarthy in Tier 1. I’d put Milton, Travis, Sanders, Reed, Mordecai and Pratt in Tier 4 in no particular order

[CGW]

Late to this thread, but following! Does everyone have the QBs roughly tiered as:

Tier 1:
Caleb Williams
Drake Maye
Jayden Daniels

Tier 2: (of course, the NFL draft will tell us a lot and some of these might be drafted early)
J.J. McCarthy
Michael Penix
Bo Nix (apologies if the "Big 6" are understood to be slightly different?)

Tier 3:
Spencer Rattler
Joe Milton
Jordan Travis
Spencer Sanders?
Others?

For me
Tier 1 - Williams
Tier 2 - Daniels, Maye
Tier 3 - JJM
Tier 4 - Penix, Nix
Tier 5 - Others

Draft will adjust some of this. If JJM goes to the perfect situation I'll have him in the same tier as Daniels and Maye, but for now I think he's clearly above Penix and Nix.

[Bronco Billy]

Penix got seriously scorched in RP. Really ugly analysis - definitely has me rethinking whether he has any kind of pro career ahead.

Penix is less modern NFL quarterback and more WWII era flak cannon.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Penix got seriously scorched in RP. Really ugly analysis - definitely has me rethinking whether he has any kind of pro career ahead.

Penix is less modern NFL quarterback and more WWII era flak cannon.

I didn't think his accuracy was THAT bad, but maybe so? He does have a bad tendency to get erratic when moved off his spot and needing to make throws on the run. When the O-line keeps the pocket clean, he's pretty solid. But how often does that happen (or rather, how rare is that) at the next level? Pretty rare for most teams without elite line play.

[Menace2010]

Penix got seriously scorched in RP. Really ugly analysis - definitely has me rethinking whether he has any kind of pro career ahead.

Penix is less modern NFL quarterback and more WWII era flak cannon.

I didn't think his accuracy was THAT bad, but maybe so? He does have a bad tendency to get erratic when moved off his spot and needing to make throws on the run. When the O-line keeps the pocket clean, he's pretty solid. But how often does that happen (or rather, how rare is that) at the next level? Pretty rare for most teams without elite line play.

I'm still doing my due diligence, but the National Championship Game made me really question if he had a place in the league. Odunze was frequently open, and Penix just couldn't get to him.

[yinzername]

Caleb

JJM/Maye

Daniels

[mild]

I'm still doing my due diligence, but the National Championship Game made me really question if he had a place in the league. Odunze was frequently open, and Penix just couldn't get to him.

Ironically, a lot of people believe that if he'd lost to Texas he'd be going a lot higher...

[tstafford]

I'm still doing my due diligence, but the National Championship Game made me really question if he had a place in the league. Odunze was frequently open, and Penix just couldn't get to him.

Ironically, a lot of people believe that if he'd lost to Texas he'd be going a lot higher...

100%. The difference in the way he was discussed b/w the two games and after is ridiculous.

[Menace2010]

I'm still doing my due diligence, but the National Championship Game made me really question if he had a place in the league. Odunze was frequently open, and Penix just couldn't get to him.

Ironically, a lot of people believe that if he'd lost to Texas he'd be going a lot higher...

100%. The difference in the way he was discussed b/w the two games and after is ridiculous.

That's fascinating. Not referencing any talking heads, literally just watching that game I remember like 3x where Odunze was wide open and nothing happened. Either Penix wasn't looking his way, which seems crazy, or wasn't able to go through his reads under pressure. I don't have strong views one way or the other, but it jumped off the screen to me. Do you guys think his evaluation is more closely aligned with evaluations pre or post that game?