Too Much or Worth It for 1.06

[Bay City Original]

Team 3 in Sig.

I'm really trying to move up into the top 7 and the 1.06 owner is willing. After some negotiating, he's dug in on this price:

1.06 for 1.12, my 2025 1st, and James Conner. He's also offered 4.01, 4.02 and a 2025 4th (all pretty worthless) but won't add anything else of value.

Value-wise, I think this is an overpay to move up 6 sports but I also believe being at 1.06 has a lot of value in this draft and to give up three lesser parts for one valuable part is worth it... like giving up two 50-cent pieces and a quarter for a dollar bill.

Would you make this trade?

[moishetreats]

Way too much for me. I think your team has some real volatility. I could see it pretty easily making another championship run or hitting some very possible and obvious bumps on the road, missing the playoffs altogether (and that's not a criticism!). So I would not at all want to including your 2025 1st as part of this deal. And losing Conner would also push this team more toward the range of missing the playoffs...

[Dr.Graffin]

Yeah, feels like you're giving up a little too much. Like James Connor is the extra. If you could get a nice player back that'd be great, or somehow work a future 2nd back....you could offer same deal, add a future 3rd, and 4th, see if you could a developmental type of player, but need a 2nd back....He's still getting the future 1st...

I'll admit it's a big jump from 1.12 to 1.6, so the other owner needs it to be worth...Also depends if you're contending this year...If not contending, and really want in on the rookie fever, I'm not to upset about losing Connor.

[repkllrs]

Deal

[Bay City Original]

@moishetreats... I completely agree with you. This is a "hit-or-miss" team and one that is getting a little bit long in the tooth at some positions. I don't think it's a championship team so at best, playoff-team.

Making this type of move would be a gamble on myself to make the playoffs, thus, making the 2025 pick a mid-rounder and the trade more palpable.

If I were to make the trade, last worst, I would have Harrison and my pick of Odunze or Bowers. If I get Williams at #2 (which is very likely as the #1 has continued to desire Harrison), I would have some trade options at QB and probably pick up Odunze or Bowers at 6. Regardless of the scenarios, I feel that I could "manage" this team to be a minimum playoff contender while picking up a pair of blue-chip players for the long haul. That's my thinking. Is it flawed and too optimistic?

[BabyChark23]

I think this move is fine and not an overpay at all. As long as you make the playoffs next year, it’s a win. If you feel you’re not a legit contender, then pass.

[frerichs5]

Way too much for me. I think your team has some real volatility. I could see it pretty easily making another championship run or hitting some very possible and obvious bumps on the road, missing the playoffs altogether (and that's not a criticism!). So I would not at all want to including your 2025 1st as part of this deal. And losing Conner would also push this team more toward the range of missing the playoffs...

I agree with this from the perspective of his team.

From the perspective of a team with the 1.06…I almost certainly wouldn’t do it for much less.

[TheTroll]

Way too much for me. I think your team has some real volatility. I could see it pretty easily making another championship run or hitting some very possible and obvious bumps on the road, missing the playoffs altogether (and that's not a criticism!). So I would not at all want to including your 2025 1st as part of this deal. And losing Conner would also push this team more toward the range of missing the playoffs...

I agree with this from the perspective of his team.

From the perspective of a team with the 1.06…I almost certainly wouldn’t do it for much less.

Piling on here. Too rich for a non guaranteed move

[abloom]

I'd take the deal in a SF league. This is cheap to me. Conner may take a hit to value and late firsts are overvalued in my opinion. Your 2025 first is not a random first, it's likely late. Your team could use both a young QB or wr which is what you will get at 1.06. no clue what you are gonna get at 1.12 but right now I'm pretty sure I only have 10 players with a first round grade for fantasy. That number could go up or down after the NFL draft.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Have you tried moving to 7 or 8 for less. I think the deal as is is acceptable, but it’s risky depending where your first ends up next year. In a vacuum I’d probably recommend not doing it but I understand doing it at the same time. Conner is a nothing burger to me, it’s the 1st that is a bit concerning. I’d try moving up to 7 or 8 first and then do this deal as a last resort if you really want to.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Feels right according to startup prices

[Jrblaha]

Have you tried moving to 7 or 8 for less. I think the deal as is is acceptable, but it’s risky depending where your first ends up next year. In a vacuum I’d probably recommend not doing it but I understand doing it at the same time. Conner is a nothing burger to me, it’s the 1st that is a bit concerning. I’d try moving up to 7 or 8 first and then do this deal as a last resort if you really want to.

X2

[Black Adam]

I'd take the deal in a SF league. This is cheap to me. Conner may take a hit to value and late firsts are overvalued in my opinion. Your 2025 first is not a random first, it's likely late. Your team could use both a young QB or wr which is what you will get at 1.06. no clue what you are gonna get at 1.12 but right now I'm pretty sure I only have 10 players with a first round grade for fantasy. That number could go up or down after the NFL draft.

x2

[moishetreats]

I'd take the deal in a SF league. This is cheap to me. Conner may take a hit to value and late firsts are overvalued in my opinion. Your 2025 first is not a random first, it's likely late. Your team could use both a young QB or wr which is what you will get at 1.06. no clue what you are gonna get at 1.12 but right now I'm pretty sure I only have 10 players with a first round grade for fantasy. That number could go up or down after the NFL draft.

IMO, this is another reason *not* to make the trade. Let's say that there end up being 10 players you have with a 1st-round grade. It's almost never the exact same 10 players as everyone else in the league. There'd be a damn good chance one (or even two) would be available with the 12th pick.

And, as you noted, there's a chance more -- even 12 -- could end up with a first-round grade.

Of course, fewer could, as well. That would certainly make it tough for one to fall to 12, and having 1.06 would be nice. I wouldn't make this trade now, as I mentioned before, and certainly not until after the draft (and, yes, you do run the risk of it not being available then).

[abloom]

I'd take the deal in a SF league. This is cheap to me. Conner may take a hit to value and late firsts are overvalued in my opinion. Your 2025 first is not a random first, it's likely late. Your team could use both a young QB or wr which is what you will get at 1.06. no clue what you are gonna get at 1.12 but right now I'm pretty sure I only have 10 players with a first round grade for fantasy. That number could go up or down after the NFL draft.

IMO, this is another reason *not* to make the trade. Let's say that there end up being 10 players you have with a 1st-round grade. It's almost never the exact same 10 players as everyone else in the league. There'd be a damn good chance one (or even two) would be available with the 12th pick.

And, as you noted, there's a chance more -- even 12 -- could end up with a first-round grade.

Of course, fewer could, as well. That would certainly make it tough for one to fall to 12, and having 1.06 would be nice. I wouldn't make this trade now, as I mentioned before, and certainly not until after the draft (and, yes, you do run the risk of it not being available then).

Not all first round grades are the same. 1.06 guarantees a first round graded pick, 1.12 does not. I also believe there will be a significant drop off at either 1.07 or 1.08 depending on McCarthy