Breaking News: Diggs trades to HOU

[fourdeans]

I have a Stroud and Nico Collins. Is this a plus or minus?

[Anteaters]

I don't think you shell out the draft capital the Texans did to just let him go after a year. That wouldn't be smart. They probably extend him because otherwise, they just paid draft picks for nothing.

Agreed on the idea it's not the plan for him to be a 1 year rental. They moved a likely backhalf 2nd for him. They CAN move off him, if they have to though, in the event he becomes a locker room poison or something, and it's to the point where it's better to eat the lost pick than to keep him around.

They have the option if worst case scenario comes into play, to move off him without too much cap damage.

They also don't need to extend him, he's under contract through 2027. So in best case scenario, he's already locked in long term.

It gives the Texans flexibility for either scenario. They know the costs of best case, and worst case scenario.

I agree, but I also think a one-year rental is not totally out of the question intentionally.

HOU has been vocal about going all-in this year while Stroud is still on his rookie deal. If Diggs helps the team win a SB but refuses to renegotiate at a team-friendly number next year, I could see the team releasing him.

The logic could be along the lines of "why pay a declining 32 year old WR $18M-$19M per season when we could sign a younger better free agent WR ... like Higgins or Aiyuk or Waddle or Devonta. Sure, some will be resigned or tagged, but all it takes is one. And if Diggs declines far enough, Houston could look to replace him with a slightly lesser (and much less expensive) receiver, and spend that money on another position of need.

This trade puts the GM in a great spot going forward.

[tstafford]

I have a Stroud and Nico Collins. Is this a plus or minus?

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

[BabyChark23]

I have a Stroud and Nico Collins. Is this a plus or minus?

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

[tstafford]

I have a Stroud and Nico Collins. Is this a plus or minus?

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

Why?

[81-]

I find it interesting that buffalo was willing to take a dead cap hit that is 3mm higher than his cap hit would have been to be on the team. Obviously it provides future relief/flexibility, but still un NFL like for a "contender".

[Anteaters]

I find it interesting that buffalo was willing to take a dead cap hit that is 3mm higher than his cap hit would have been to be on the team. Obviously it provides future relief/flexibility, but still un NFL like for a "contender".

Only Bills fans think Buffalo is a true contender.
(Sorry, the Dolfan in me couldn't pass up that set up)

[Fezzik]

Where do you value Diggs from a 12 team 1qb ppr standpoint?


I have him on a contender where he's good WR depth. I'm thinking of cashing out, but not sure what I'd get for him now. I think I take 1.06 (Worthy) without thinking too hard. Trade analyzer has Diggs between 1.07 and 1.08.

[Shcritters]

The time to cash out on him was before this trade news broke. With this trade I see his value only decreasing (and the trade analyzer likely hasn't caught up yet).

I'm assuming above is 1QB. If you have good depth, I'd absolutely take 1.06-1.08 range.

[remedy29]

Where do you value Diggs from a 12 team 1qb ppr standpoint?


I have him on a contender where he's good WR depth. I'm thinking of cashing out, but not sure what I'd get for him now. I think I take 1.06 (Worthy) without thinking too hard. Trade analyzer has Diggs between 1.07 and 1.08.

I think your trade calculator is broke. KTC has him around 1.12 value, and that may drop a bit. A mid 1st is a top.50 player and Diggs is no longer valued that highly.

[BabyChark23]

Stroud - plus
Nico - negative
Dell - push

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

Why?

I’m not a guy with spreadsheets full of data that I pull up, so if this is incorrect, someone let me know. But what I’m hearing in the rapid reactions from most of the fantasy analysts is that Nico is more of a downfield, big play guy than either Diggs or Dell are. If true, I would anticipate that Diggs, Dell, and Schultz will be competing with each other for targets while Nico will be operating as the primary deep threat. His targets will be capped by an extra mouth to feed but he will be used in a more unique role.

[81-]

Disagree on the receivers. I think this hurts Dell more than it hurts Nico.

Why?

I’m not a guy with spreadsheets full of data that I pull up, so if this is incorrect, someone let me know. But what I’m hearing in the rapid reactions from most of the fantasy analysts is that Nico is more of a downfield, big play guy than either Diggs or Dell are. If true, I would anticipate that Diggs, Dell, and Schultz will be competing with each other for targets while Nico will be operating as the primary deep threat. His targets will be capped by an extra mouth to feed but he will be used in a more unique role.

Just remember, those same talking heads had the bears getting a 1st or 2nd for fields

[Anteaters]

https://stathead.com/football/versus-fi ... 3=DiggSt00
Here's a link with the 2023 data for Tank and Nico.
Yards Per Reception: Tank (15.1), Nico (16.2)
TDs per Game: Tank (0.7), Nico (0.5)
Fantasy pts/gm: Tank (11.8), Nico (12.0)

FWIW, here are the numbers for Diggs' 2023 season for the same categories.
YPR, 11.1
TDs/gm, 0.47
Fantasy pts/gm: 9.8

Keep in mind Diggs is a year closer to the age cliff than he was in 202. From the way he ended 2023, some people say he's already fallen off.

[Ice]

I don't think you shell out the draft capital the Texans did to just let him go after a year. That wouldn't be smart. They probably extend him because otherwise, they just paid draft picks for nothing.

They get his services this year for his salary, which they can afford, and the Texans get a 6th round pick this year and a 5th next year.

They do give a 2nd next year which will probably be late.

Diggs did fall off some last year but he will help them this year as the Texans will run out 3 solid WR's with their young inexpensive stud QB.

Looks like a solid trade for both teams. I don't see the Texans rushing at all to sign him to an extension. He is on the back side of his career.

[Payton34]

Honestly didn’t see Houston as a landing spot for Diggs. Didn’t they just re-up/extend Noah Brown?

Not saying Diggs isn’t better, but just wasn’t a WR room that seemed like it needed an upgrade.