Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Brock Bowers.

[mild]

OK, clearly I'm having a bit of fun in reference to another legendary thread that we have all known and loved.

But does anyone here actually believe this, and have a good reason of why it might go any better for Bowers? Because in scouting him, there are some eerie similarities that won't appease the "I want a traditional TE who blocks" crowd...

Only 44.7% of Bowers’ snaps were from what PFF categorizes as a tight end alignment, which would rank 168th out of 191 qualifying college tight ends, and far lower than other prospects who were categorized as “receiving-first” when entering the NFL. Kyle Pitts aligned as a tight end on 62.9% of his snaps, Dalton Kincaid on 64.5% at Utah and Sam LaPorta on 67% at Iowa (which makes sense given the Hawkeyes' recent offensive philosophy of 1 yard and a cloud of dust).

This can seem like a negative stat, and it would be for some prospects, but when watching Bowers and his role in the Georgia offense, it's more indicative of Bowers’ versatility, athleticism, skill and ability as a pure football player and Georgia’s general reliance on his ability to win from anywhere. Bowers is listed as a tight end and can align there, but he also can line up outside, in the slot, as a wing or even as a rusher in jet motion (he rushed for 193 yards and five touchdowns in college).

(Credit to Nate Tice for his excellent Bowers profile that you can read here. It's not behind a paywall.)

I definitely agree with Nate that thinking of him as a Power Slot offensive weapon probably characterises him best. Perhaps we'll need his landing spot first before we get truly bullish on his early-career outlook... who here remains undeterred and thinks he's -that- much better than Kyle Pitts / Kincaid / LaPorta, and worthy of our SF 1.05-1.07?

[Needalife]

All about targets/usage with TEs. We’ve seen a lot of talented TEs be average or worse in fantasy when they don’t get targeted consistently. The best ones are a focal point of the scheme and a safety vale for the QB. Bowers is exceptional but Hock didn’t get targets in DET and Pitts struggled after his rookie year with no targets. Hock gets peppered with targets in MIN and becomes elite. Pitts just might do that this year.

LaPorta wasn’t seen as an elite prospect last year and usually went in the 2nd round of rookie drafts but the DET OC schemed him perfectly. Kelce is schemed perfectly. Njoku, OJ Howard, Gesicki, Engram… some guys who are awesomely talented but have never been unlocked fully.

I don’t think Bowers is worth it on talent alone but if he is utilized and heavily targeted, then he has top 3 potential easily. It’s just tough to say sometimes with these TEs.

[tstafford]

The comparisons to Pitts and how the selection of Pitts in rookie drafts worked out is inevitable. But the situation seems different to me.

Bowers is going to go three or four picks later in SF than Pitts did. That's a factor of '24 being a much stronger QB class than '21. That matters because having the 1.08 bust is different than the 1.04. The 1.08 isn't really premium. So people should get Bowers at a discount to what Pitts cost during his rookie draft.

There's going to be a Pitt's Effect on Bowers as well. The community as a whole is going to be slightly more gun shy. And the dynamics of the position have changed. There seems to be more serviceable TEs now than there were in '21. Doesn't feel like we need to take big swings in order to address the position. Both of those things will cool off irrational exuberance around Bowers.

Bowers is the consolation prize in this draft. It's him vs. the QB4/WR4/RB1. I don't think FF managers can get too bent out of shape when picks in that range bust.

Lastly, Bowers is damn good. If he lands well at all the floor here might be Dallas Goedert. Worse things have happened.

[MacDaddy123]

Well IMO, the Pitts comparison is just lazy, as Bowers value is all about production on the field, while Pitts was basically a combine made prospect, similar to Anthony Richardson.
Now this doesn't mean that Pitts and ARich can't succeed, but for me, the game film speaks much louder than athletic testing scores.
Bowers popped off the screen as a true freshman.

Sure, landing spot is critical, as it is with most players. I don't expect Bowers to have a better rookie season that LaPorta, but he is a damn good weapon in the TE slot.

[mild]

Well IMO, the Pitts comparison is just lazy, as Bowers value is all about production on the field, while Pitts was basically a combine made prospect, similar to Anthony Richardson.

770 yards and 12 touchdowns in 8 games in the SEC as a 20 year old Jr. doesn't impress you, huh?

Fair enough, do continue...

[Bronco Billy]

Thank you Captain Obvious. The opinion you put forth here is applicable to all but the most elite prospects.

No team is going to draft Bowers as their inline TE, so his field time is already capped to 12 formations unless they line him up as a WR, which will happen occasionally I’m guessing but won’t be their base formation. That limits his opportunities, so the question is whether he’s just that good a receiver that he’ll be targeted that much in the time that he is on the field. IMO that’s questionable given the mismatches he had in college versus how much his coverage level will be so much better in the bigs.

[hankmurphy]

Well IMO, the Pitts comparison is just lazy, as Bowers value is all about production on the field, while Pitts was basically a combine made prospect, similar to Anthony Richardson.

Despite being a combine-made prospect, Kyle Pitts' ADP was 1.6 in February/March 2021 rookie drafts.

[TheTroll]

on the contrarian side. drafting the top TE prospect early still buys you capital for 3 years or so. what you "over pay" now, means year 2 or 3 flip

[Anteaters]

on the contrarian side. drafting the top TE prospect early still buys you capital for 3 years or so. what you "over pay" now, means year 2 or 3 flip

Also important to consider is a premium 1st round pick wasted on a TE in 2024 means the team might be bad enough this season to have another premium 1st round pick in 2025. There's always a silver lining to a tragedy, amiright?

[gogobradyarm]

I don’t think Bowers should fall past 1.04 in 1 QB PPR leagues. TEs in the first round are high hit rates.

[Mjvb5]

I don’t think Bowers should fall past 1.04 in 1 QB PPR leagues. TEs in the first round are high hit rates.

While I agree that bowers is likely the lock 1.4 or 1.5 in 1 qb. rd 1 TE is not a high hit rate
RD1 TEs since 2010
Dalton kincaid-early but lets say hit
Kyle pitts- meh
Noah Fant-bust
TJ Hock-hit after 5 years before that solid meh
Hayden Hurst-bust
Njoku-bust till year 6
Evan Engram- bust till year 6
OJ Howard bust
Eric Ebron- meh to bust
Tyler Eifert-bust
Jermaine Gresham- meh to bust

you have from these 11, 4 outright busts, one early looking hit, three late breakout hits and the rest were just meh or worse. So unless our saying that you are committing to hold onto a first round pick for 5+ years before really knowing what you put a first rounder into I wouldnt call them a high hit rate, accounting for that were looking at 4/11 hitting

[Bronco Billy]

I don’t think Bowers should fall past 1.04 in 1 QB PPR leagues. TEs in the first round are high hit rates.

While I agree that bowers is likely the lock 1.4 or 1.5 in 1 qb. rd 1 TE is not a high hit rate
RD1 TEs since 2010
Dalton kincaid-early but lets say hit
Kyle pitts- meh
Noah Fant-bust
TJ Hock-hit after 5 years before that solid meh
Hayden Hurst-bust
Njoku-bust till year 6
Evan Engram- bust till year 6
OJ Howard bust
Eric Ebron- meh to bust
Tyler Eifert-bust
Jermaine Gresham- meh to bust

you have from these 11, 4 outright busts, one early looking hit, three late breakout hits and the rest were just meh or worse. So unless our saying that you are committing to hold onto a first round pick for 5+ years before really knowing what you put a first rounder into I wouldnt call them a high hit rate, accounting for that were looking at 4/11 hitting

I think you’re misremembering Hockenson pretty badly, so I’m not sure how accurate you are on the rest.

[Mjvb5]

I don’t think Bowers should fall past 1.04 in 1 QB PPR leagues. TEs in the first round are high hit rates.

While I agree that bowers is likely the lock 1.4 or 1.5 in 1 qb. rd 1 TE is not a high hit rate
RD1 TEs since 2010
Dalton kincaid-early but lets say hit
Kyle pitts- meh
Noah Fant-bust
TJ Hock-hit after 5 years before that solid meh
Hayden Hurst-bust
Njoku-bust till year 6
Evan Engram- bust till year 6
OJ Howard bust
Eric Ebron- meh to bust
Tyler Eifert-bust
Jermaine Gresham- meh to bust

you have from these 11, 4 outright busts, one early looking hit, three late breakout hits and the rest were just meh or worse. So unless our saying that you are committing to hold onto a first round pick for 5+ years before really knowing what you put a first rounder into I wouldnt call them a high hit rate, accounting for that were looking at 4/11 hitting

I think you’re misremembering Hockenson pretty badly, so I’m not sure how accurate you are on the rest.

No I drafted a lotta him he pretty much exclusively finished as a mid to low TE 1 so startable but firmly in the replaceable tier. and just checked the numbers, was off by a year but before going to MIN he averaged 44 ypg and .33 tds per game. Again not a bust but calling that a hit is bold

[Bronco Billy]

While I agree that bowers is likely the lock 1.4 or 1.5 in 1 qb. rd 1 TE is not a high hit rate
RD1 TEs since 2010
Dalton kincaid-early but lets say hit
Kyle pitts- meh
Noah Fant-bust
TJ Hock-hit after 5 years before that solid meh
Hayden Hurst-bust
Njoku-bust till year 6
Evan Engram- bust till year 6
OJ Howard bust
Eric Ebron- meh to bust
Tyler Eifert-bust
Jermaine Gresham- meh to bust

you have from these 11, 4 outright busts, one early looking hit, three late breakout hits and the rest were just meh or worse. So unless our saying that you are committing to hold onto a first round pick for 5+ years before really knowing what you put a first rounder into I wouldnt call them a high hit rate, accounting for that were looking at 4/11 hitting

I think you’re misremembering Hockenson pretty badly, so I’m not sure how accurate you are on the rest.

No I drafted a lotta him he pretty much exclusively finished as a mid to low TE 1 so startable but firmly in the replaceable tier. and just checked the numbers, was off by a year but before going to MIN he averaged 44 ypg and .33 tds per game. Again not a bust but calling that a hit is bold

In our 1.5 TEP league ppw scoring:

Year 1 nothing
Year 2 TE7
Year 3 TE6
Year 4 TE2
Year 5 TE2

Don’t you think your bar might be a little high? That looks like a pretty good return on a 1st round FF pick to me. Yeah, I call that a hit and I don’t feel bold at all in doing so.

[FantasyFreak]

Well IMO, the Pitts comparison is just lazy, as Bowers value is all about production on the field, while Pitts was basically a combine made prospect, similar to Anthony Richardson.
Now this doesn't mean that Pitts and ARich can't succeed, but for me, the game film speaks much louder than athletic testing scores.
Bowers popped off the screen as a true freshman.

Sure, landing spot is critical, as it is with most players. I don't expect Bowers to have a better rookie season that LaPorta, but he is a damn good weapon in the TE slot.

This is some revisionist history right here. Pitts had major production in the SEC, with 770 yards abd 12 TD's in 8, yes, that's right, 8 games.

That's a shade under 100 ypg, and 1.5 TD's per game!!!!

Bowers had similar stats as a junior (882 yards and 13 TD's), but it took him 15 games to do that.

He also had a good sophomore year (54/649/5), at basically the same age as when Bowers was a freshman, as Bowers was almost a full year older than Pitts when starting college.

The most glaring error in this remark, however, is the fact that there were NO ON FIELD WORKOUTS at the 2021 combine, due to the pandemic. The combine was basically non existent for prospects coming into the limelight.