Projecting future 1st placement with good probability

[Prison_Mike]

I’m seeing a lot of posts where people are saying early, mid, late 2025 or even two years out (2026).

For the sake of this post we’ll define predicting good as getting the right tier (early, mid, late) over 50% of the time. We can adjust that later if needed, but seems like we need a starting point if we’re gonna discus doing this “good.”

Are there people out there guessing correctly the majority of the time with decent sample sizes? (year after year after year etc).

My longest league has been around maybe 10 years and I’ve predicted the correct champ like once. Sometimes they don’t even make the playoffs. There’s so many factors that go into how a team does, injuries, trades, facing high/low scoring teams, etc. The team that won it all for us this year, was predicted by myself and the team owner to be a non-playoff team.

My league is a classic 12 team league, division winners and then two best make the playoffs, byes for best two divisional winners, one game elimination playoff games. I get different setups possibly changing likelihood of predicting standings.

Outside of noticing an older team, with injury concerns, and lack of depth and draft capital to make changes, my predictions is off bad enough I’m not comfortable projecting beyond simply playoffs or not-playoffs, and even then, I’m not confident.

Anyone out there with factors that seem to give them good probability predicting final standings (and draft placement)?

Every year in the preseason I create a spreadsheet and pull up predicted points for each anticipated starter on each roster. I then add up the points and rank the teams. With this strategy I’ve been able to predict pretty well… have regularly gotten a top 3 pick from one team the last 3 years.

KTC team ranker isn’t very reliable… they are more about total dynasty value rather than a one-year window.

Yes, it can be unpredictable, but I’d say I am able to guess early/mid/late a year in advance >50% of the time. But in that league it is pretty clear which teams are competing, which are rebuilding, and which are in the middle.

2 years out… different story. Good luck with that unless you have absolute killer or bottomed out teams.

Sleeper has this feature now. I used it last year just out of curiosity (though I didn't really follow up on how accurate it was at the end of the year). It was fairly accurate though if I remember correctly. I'm sure it's using similar calculations that Schritters lists above

It links to FantasyPros and gives you your league's power rankings for the current week, current year, and dynasty value.

Sometimes luck just derails any system you have though (in either direction).

I had a (keeper) team that had an extra 1st (ARSB) and was ranked the highest in power rankings all year. The team started 0-7. My friend won a (dynasty) championship last year with a team that featured Bailey Zappe in his SF position (out of necessity, not because he thought Zappe might be a good play).

I think killer_of_giants summed it up well - buy supposedly late 1sts at late 1st prices.
Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

[wickerkat1212]

IMO good teams remain good teams, bad teams remain bad teams.

Good teams are solid, have depth, and youth. So teams 1-6th I expect to be there again, unless there are major injuries. That is the one unknown. I do see teams dominate all year and then crap the bed in the playoffs. Last year I had four teams get byes (1st/2nd all year long) and all of them lost. Most finished between 7th and 9th.

Bad teams take time to get better. Even if they are picking early (and often) not all rookie players will have a HUGE impact the first year. Of course there are exceptions. So teams finishing in the bottom FOUR I think will probably be there again. Unless they were on the fringe of playoffs and lost a few key players. But if they earned the 1-6 pick, they will probably be in the bottom again.

For me, it's the teams in the middle. We had a guy stumble into the playoffs last year with the 6th placed seed, and then he won it all. As I've mentioned, my teams all made the playoffs, all byes, and all lost.

So, I think we need to keep an eye on the good teams—did they lose key players, injuries, trades, retire, etc. And the bad teams—did they do anything to improve via picks, and trades. The middle teams are the hardest to pick IMO.

But I think most of the time the really bad teams (bottom four) and the really good teams (top four) will probably be there again.

I did turn around an orphan in two years—adding Bijan, DJM, Kraft, Brian Robinson, Howell, Hollywood, Jakobi. Went from bottom four to top four pretty fast. So we need to pay attention to the trades, to the draft, and the WW. The guys who got Kyen or Puka for example, the might have turned things around quickly.

[wickerkat1212]

I’m seeing a lot of posts where people are saying early, mid, late 2025 or even two years out (2026).

For the sake of this post we’ll define predicting good as getting the right tier (early, mid, late) over 50% of the time. We can adjust that later if needed, but seems like we need a starting point if we’re gonna discus doing this “good.”

Are there people out there guessing correctly the majority of the time with decent sample sizes? (year after year after year etc).

My longest league has been around maybe 10 years and I’ve predicted the correct champ like once. Sometimes they don’t even make the playoffs. There’s so many factors that go into how a team does, injuries, trades, facing high/low scoring teams, etc. The team that won it all for us this year, was predicted by myself and the team owner to be a non-playoff team.

My league is a classic 12 team league, division winners and then two best make the playoffs, byes for best two divisional winners, one game elimination playoff games. I get different setups possibly changing likelihood of predicting standings.

Outside of noticing an older team, with injury concerns, and lack of depth and draft capital to make changes, my predictions is off bad enough I’m not comfortable projecting beyond simply playoffs or not-playoffs, and even then, I’m not confident.

Anyone out there with factors that seem to give them good probability predicting final standings (and draft placement)?

Every year in the preseason I create a spreadsheet and pull up predicted points for each anticipated starter on each roster. I then add up the points and rank the teams. With this strategy I’ve been able to predict pretty well… have regularly gotten a top 3 pick from one team the last 3 years.

KTC team ranker isn’t very reliable… they are more about total dynasty value rather than a one-year window.

Yes, it can be unpredictable, but I’d say I am able to guess early/mid/late a year in advance >50% of the time. But in that league it is pretty clear which teams are competing, which are rebuilding, and which are in the middle.

2 years out… different story. Good luck with that unless you have absolute killer or bottomed out teams.

Sleeper has this feature now. I used it last year just out of curiosity (though I didn't really follow up on how accurate it was at the end of the year). It was fairly accurate though if I remember correctly. I'm sure it's using similar calculations that Schritters lists above

It links to FantasyPros and gives you your league's power rankings for the current week, current year, and dynasty value.

Sometimes luck just derails any system you have though (in either direction).

I had a (keeper) team that had an extra 1st (ARSB) and was ranked the highest in power rankings all year. The team started 0-7. My friend won a (dynasty) championship last year with a team that featured Bailey Zappe in his SF position (out of necessity, not because he thought Zappe might be a good play).

I think killer_of_giants summed it up well - buy supposedly late 1sts at late 1st prices.
Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

Right. League Power Rankings are really helpful. Helps me to see my team in reality—sometimes I think it's better than it is.

[Jigga94]

Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

My favorite all-in play is trading my 1st for someone else's straight up

[wickerkat1212]

Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

My favorite all-in play is trading my 1st for someone else's straight up

Nice. I like that.

[81-]

Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

My favorite all-in play is trading my 1st for someone else's straight up

i flipped a 6th for a 7th last year just to grease the trade wheel. i'm not going to go count, but it ended up maybe being our most active trade season ever. (13 years)

[Shcritters]

Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st

My favorite all-in play is trading my 1st for someone else's straight up

Nice. I like that.

That's ballsy. Definitely all-in.

I also typically try to trade late 1sts (1.11/1.12) or early 2nds (2.01/2.02) for future 1sts. Yes, time-value-of-picks (similar to time-value-of-money), but if you can get ahead of it and have the team capital to float things from year to year you will likely never come out disappointed.

Recently traded 1.12/2.12 this year for a random (but likely later) 25 1st + 25 2nd next year. This is for a non-competing team, so have the ability to push the capital a year where it actually benefits me (keeping my 1st next year 1.01-1.06) and also giving upside that the picks are significantly better than 1.12/2.12 next year.

[Prison_Mike]

Here's another story that demonstrates just how bad we are at this projecting thing (or maybe just me?)

In January of 2023, I traded:
('23) 1.10 + 1.12 + 2.12 + Purdy + Kyle Phillips
for
Stafford + Conner + Jamo + Shaheed + '24 1st

At the beginning of the 2024 season, in an attempt to make run, I traded that team's 1st back to him for Diontae + Javonte.

My thought process was "when healthy and in the right situation, both of these players a worth a mid/late 1st. A mid 1st, even with a chance of being early is a fine price for both of them"

That 2024 1st will be Caleb Williams (1.01)

Edit to add: Good lord, I never want to make a dynasty trade again after typing that out

[Jigga94]

My favorite all-in play is trading my 1st for someone else's straight up

Nice. I like that.

That's ballsy. Definitely all-in.

I also typically try to trade late 1sts (1.11/1.12) or early 2nds (2.01/2.02) for future 1sts. Yes, time-value-of-picks (similar to time-value-of-money), but if you can get ahead of it and have the team capital to float things from year to year you will likely never come out disappointed.

Recently traded 1.12/2.12 this year for a random (but likely later) 25 1st + 25 2nd next year. This is for a non-competing team, so have the ability to push the capital a year where it actually benefits me (keeping my 1st next year 1.01-1.06) and also giving upside that the picks are significantly better than 1.12/2.12 next year.

That's what typically happens for me. Trade my late for a projected late next year, but you never know... Always good to have extra ammo

[Shcritters]

Here's another story that demonstrates just how bad we are at this projecting thing (or maybe just me?)

In January of 2023, I traded:
('23) 1.10 + 1.12 + 2.12 + Purdy + Kyle Phillips
for
Stafford + Conner + Jamo + Shaheed + '24 1st

At the beginning of the 2024 season, in an attempt to make run, I traded that team's 1st back to him for Diontae + Javonte.

My thought process was "when healthy and in the right situation, both of these players a worth a mid/late 1st. A mid 1st, even with a chance of being early is a fine price for both of them"

That 2024 1st will be Caleb Williams (1.01)

Edit to add: Good lord, I never want to make a dynasty trade again after typing that out

Ouch. That one hurts.

But here’s the question - have you won every trade you’ve ever made? Eventually you’ll strike out in the 9th when there’s two outs and the bases are loaded. The only question is if you’re going to keep swinging or not.

We’re always looking for the rule that guarantees every action we take will work out. I would suggest the better strategy is to look for rules that help you win significantly more than you lose. You stack enough of those together and it will be in your favor (like a casino where the house always wins).

[TheTroll]

So far the two dynasty leagues I have been in the “never trade” owners are always struggling a few years after the start up draft. It is nearly, impossible to build a dynasty k. Your year in and year out rookie picks.

[jordanzs]

The best I saw was about a decade ago in our DFW48 startup draft. There was an owner who was being a tool and scared to pick, constantly holding up the draft for lame tradebacks. Let’s call him owner A. Owner B called him out on his draft tactics and dynasty team building skills in the league chat. He then offered owner A the 4.1 and “his” first next year for the 4.8 and owner A’s first next year. It was accepted, and owner B reaped the rewards.