Would drafting MHJ/Nabers/Odunze be crazy?

[TheTroll]

right there are only 32 of those suckers (Starting QBs), they are like gold

[MacDaddy123]

Your strategy is fine. But I'd be open to adjusting it based on landing spots/draft capital. Just a few thoughts for consideration:

CW - I'm assuming based on your post that you are fairly sure CW is going 1.01. If the 1.01 ends up as a WR, I'm for sure taking CW.

Bowers - You mention this is a TEP league. If (and only if) Bowers lands well, he's worth consideration in the top-4. In 0.5 TEP 6 of the top-24 pass catchers were TEs last year. Even a light TEP makes TE attractive at flex and it sounds like this league has deep starting requirements. I have no interest in Bowers at this price in non-TEP. I'm probably still going WR3 or QB in TEP, but it's worth spending a few cycles considering Bowers.

Sell some picks - I love that you acquired all these picks and bet they have risen in value (and will continue to). During the draft I'm probably putting some late 1sts/early 2nds on the block to see what kind of offers I get. You're going to have plenty of exposure to this rookie class, rookie fever will be in full swing, and people will be frustrated that they aren't participating in the early part of the draft (because you have most of the picks). It's a recipe for you to get a great return. If you don't like the offers, reject them and pick.

WR3 vs. QB - If you end up taking two WRs, it's hard not to consider a QB with the 1.04. In the right situation, Jayden Daniels looks to have the profile of a QB that could be very valuable for FF. Honestly I could see why some folks might prefer him to CW. Higher risk, higher potential reward. You can't have too many QBs in SF. But I know trades can be hard to pull off in some leagues. FWIW - I have the 1.01/1.05 in a league where I hold Murray/Tua/Carr/etc. and I'll likely be taking CW at 1.01. MHJR would be a day one starter for me, but I'll pass on that for the QB value.

Thanks for the well thought out response!

Yes, CW going at 1.01. I already made that trade with 1.02. He wanted CW desperately, and I was going to take MHJ.
So I sent him 1.01 + a mid 25 2nd for his 1.02 + mid/late 25 1st. So I KNOW that CW is 1.01.

Bowers is a consideration, but TEP is only 0.5, pretty low. Landing spot could put him in contention, but for me in a vacuum, Odunze > Bowers in leagues where TEP > 1.0.

Sell picks - this is a consideration, as the dude with 1.07 already said he would move up to 1.04 if Maye is still on the board, and he should be. Problem is can he afford it? He is same guy who gave me his mid 25 1st for CW, he does have another 25 1st, his own, which looks to be an early 1st. I can't imagine him giving up an early 25 1st to move up from 1.07 to 1.04.

WR3 vs. QB - this is where it becomes complicated, as I am 99% sure that 1.05 takes Odunze if he is still on the board. Maybe I can see if he is willing to trade up to 1.04 for Odunze, idk. While I'd love to take a swing at a QB, (my QB2 is Maye), I also realize that QB's have much more bust potential than WR's do. Just looking back at 2021 QB class.
If I decide QB, I'd probably rather offer 1.04 on top of one of my own QB's for a known upgrade versus grabbing a rookie QB at 1.04.

I tend to prefer low risk with high draft picks, which is one of the reasons I prefer WR over QB, and Maye over Daniels.
IMO, Daniels has the higher ceiling, while Maye is the safer long term play.
I don't mind taking risk with later round picks, but I am not a huge gambler with early 1sts.
Make sense?

[MacDaddy123]

right there are only 32 of those suckers (Starting QBs), they are like gold

Not in my SF leagues.
Through 2 years in this league, only 1 high end QB trade happened, and I was involved.
I traded away Kyler + Levis + Charbonnet for Justin Herbert last November.
That trade does not look as glamorous right now.

90+% of QB trades are cheap ones for backup QB's.

I have not received a decent offer for any of my starting QB's.
Best off I have received in 2 years was before 2023 season, someone offered me a late 2nd for Pickett.
This year, after Mac Jones got traded to the Jags, some dude offered me Mac Jones + 2.10 for Deshaun Watson

[MacDaddy123]

I'm onboard with going WR-WR but then think you gotta go QB. Watson could be in a Russel Wilson boat as early as next year. I'm sky high on Lawrence, but even I will be concerned if he doesn't take a step this year. You can never have too many quality QBs. I'm low on McCarthy so this influences my recommendation. Would rather Daniels or Maye and Thomas than Odunze and McCarthy personally. This is even more true if you end up going WR again at 1.12.

I'd at least leave open the possibility of going RB at 1.12 if Brooks or Benson end up in prime spots, and would definitely take multiple RB shots (Brooks, Benson, Wright) in the early 2nd. Guys aren't elite, but plenty of WRs bust and despite the depth of this class none of the profiles are squeaky clean at that stage of the draft.

I don't agree with that due to the difference in contracts.
Russ contract was not fully guaranteed, so easier to get out of.
Watson contract is fully guaranteed, no way to get out of contract.
Watson contract says he will be a starting QB somewhere, at least through 2026.

I also have no interest in spending a 1st on a RB in this 2024 class draft.
There will be plenty of better RB's coming out in 2025, and I am holding four 25 1sts right now.
I may take a swing or two at RB in rounds 2/3, but not round 1 this year.
I have been patiently building for 2 years now, no sense in panicking now.

RB's are the cherry on top, last piece in the rebuild IMO.

I'd probably rather have Maye + Thomas over McCarthy + Odunze, unless, somehow, McCarthy wound up in Minnesota.

[MacDaddy123]

I'd go WR+WR+QB. This is still SF and while the sum of your three QBs is good, I'd prefer to have one undisputed stud among them. You can shoot for that stud with one of your early '24 picks.

For me, there is no way to draft that undisputed stud.
The only way to get that undisputed stud at QB is to maybe put the 1.04 on top of TLaw for Mahomes.

[MacDaddy123]

I love it, but i would probably look to trade down to accumulate more.. I would imagine there are some folks with picks right after that are in need of a QB.. make them put their money where their mouth is a allude that you are going to dominate the QB Market.. Even if they are throwing in some 2nds you would prob still end up with those same WRs..

There will be dudes looking for QB at 1.06 and 1.07.
Unfortunately, 1.05 probably doesn't go QB, and will jump on Odunze if he drops to 1.05.

This is a consideration, but probably can't play out until I am on the clock