What to do?

[SoftwoodGrampian]

It doesn’t need to be x4 1sts for JJ. Actually as a JJ owner, I’d probably still decline that. What I mean is that in order to acquire JJ, it should take a value equivalent to x4 1sts.

For example, it takes toughly two future 1sts to acquire this year’s 1.5. So, 1.5 + x2 1sts work.

Or 1.5 + ‘25 1st + Will Levis

Etc etc

Still wouldn’t trade JJ

[JamboMac]

I really think it's closer than it first appears. I understand losing Jefferson is a blow, but it could get me to where I want to be a year earlier provided I draft well.

Jefferson => JSN + 1.05, but this could change if I got a QB and they hit within 1-2 seasons.
2.04 + 2.05 => 2.01, given the depth in this draft, I believe there will still be top value to the end of the 2nd.

I see it as quite even, more so light on my side slightly. However, I'm just trying to be realistic in what I can get really.

Appreciate your input though, I do agree it favours the other person, I just feel I need to make even a small sacrifice. Plus, it "should" also helps me get that 1.01 next season for the next top QB. Unless those guys I draft smash it out of the park, which is a win-win.

I’m with Menace, this deal is a massive loss. I see what you’re saying about a QB at 1.05, but what happens when you don’t get the stud? What happens when that QB turns into Fields, Lance, Zach Wilson, Pickett, Baker, Rosen, etc etc etc.

You are taking on ALL of the risk in this deal. I still like JSN, but there’s always a chance he turns into nothing as well.

There is 0 chance I’d trade JJ without something known coming back.

Bingo.

How often do we have "sure things" that amount to busts or perennial WR2s? Or QBs that fizzle out in today's NFL?

You say "provided I draft well" as if that's all in your hands. What happens when Drake Maye doesn't study his playbook enough? You can make the right pick and still end up being wrong. If the cost of that wrong decision is a burned pick, no problem. If the cost of that wrong decision is Justin Jefferson, big problem that your roster may take years to recover from.

Maye (or whoever you select) wouldn't need to just "hit" to justify giving up JJ. He'd need to become a perennial top-8(ish) QB in addition to JSN getting a lot closer to his ceiling than he looked in YR1

I agree with what you're saying, but you can flip that anyway you look at it. Who says Jefferson doesn't end up with a top QB and he doesn't put up the same numbers we are used to for a few years? Injuries, etc.? Maybe even traded and stuck in a new system that doesn't work for him.

The fun part of fantasy is taking those risks, and I have a good track record with these things (usually), but also some bad misses. I just worry that I'm letting Jefferson go to waste. Imagine if JSN hits Olave/Wilson level (where I believe he will be eventually), Maye/Daniels goes 1.05 and plays like Stroud? Immediate regret and loss on my side.

Again though, I do understand where you're coming from and you guys are convincing me not to do it, but I have a bad feeling I'll regret not doing so in a year.

[JamboMac]

It doesn’t need to be x4 1sts for JJ. Actually as a JJ owner, I’d probably still decline that. What I mean is that in order to acquire JJ, it should take a value equivalent to x4 1sts.

For example, it takes toughly two future 1sts to acquire this year’s 1.5. So, 1.5 + x2 1sts work.

Or 1.5 + ‘25 1st + Will Levis

Etc etc

Still wouldn’t trade JJ

Yeah I get what you mean. I always assume a future 1st as a mid round pick, so 4x1st = 1.06x4 equivalent. That is a lot to give up for a WR. Also, believe me when I say that most other drafts I would not consider this trade. Last season for example, not a chance. But the guys in this draft just do it for me, and I firmly believe it's a great draft to build on in terms of the number of top players. Next seasons isn't going to be as good as this seasons. Maybe better RBs, but QBs and WRs

This is my main concern, I guess.

[Menace2010]

All good. You asked for advice, majority of us have advised against. End of the day, it's your team. Best of luck with whatever you decide.

[frerichs5]

I’m with Menace, this deal is a massive loss. I see what you’re saying about a QB at 1.05, but what happens when you don’t get the stud? What happens when that QB turns into Fields, Lance, Zach Wilson, Pickett, Baker, Rosen, etc etc etc.

You are taking on ALL of the risk in this deal. I still like JSN, but there’s always a chance he turns into nothing as well.

There is 0 chance I’d trade JJ without something known coming back.

Bingo.

How often do we have "sure things" that amount to busts or perennial WR2s? Or QBs that fizzle out in today's NFL?

You say "provided I draft well" as if that's all in your hands. What happens when Drake Maye doesn't study his playbook enough? You can make the right pick and still end up being wrong. If the cost of that wrong decision is a burned pick, no problem. If the cost of that wrong decision is Justin Jefferson, big problem that your roster may take years to recover from.

Maye (or whoever you select) wouldn't need to just "hit" to justify giving up JJ. He'd need to become a perennial top-8(ish) QB in addition to JSN getting a lot closer to his ceiling than he looked in YR1

I agree with what you're saying, but you can flip that anyway you look at it. Who says Jefferson doesn't end up with a top QB and he doesn't put up the same numbers we are used to for a few years? Injuries, etc.? Maybe even traded and stuck in a new system that doesn't work for him.

The fun part of fantasy is taking those risks, and I have a good track record with these things (usually), but also some bad misses. I just worry that I'm letting Jefferson go to waste. Imagine if JSN hits Olave/Wilson level (where I believe he will be eventually), Maye/Daniels goes 1.05 and plays like Stroud? Immediate regret and loss on my side.

Again though, I do understand where you're coming from and you guys are convincing me not to do it, but I have a bad feeling I'll regret not doing so in a year.

Well, we saw Jefferson put up 20ppg when he came back with Nick Mullens haha. So while yes, QB is a legitimate concern, I’m not worrying about that.

There’s only one path you come out ahead here. JSN turns it on and your 1.05 becomes a stud. If they simply become “good” you’re likely at worst equal with still having JJ. If they don’t hit, you’re obviously better with JJ. I guess path two to you winning is JJ suddenly sucking, but in my opinion, that’s the least likely of all outcomes.

But hey, it’s your team…if you’ll regret not doing it, go for it. I think it’s a massive mistake. But wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong either.

[Black Adam]

What to do?

Not this deal.