1.07 for JSN? 1 QB

[Viking386]

For team in signature.

Would you throw the 1.07 in a 1 QB league for JSN and hope his talent shines through even with the extension of Lockett or would you hold the picker here? As mentioned in previous post I’m not trying to contend this season and not really a fan of any RB or WR at this point of the draft at 1.07. What do you guys think?

[Mtt33]

Jsn pretty easily for me in 1 qb.

[TheTroll]

JSN for sure. Not even a doubt

[MacDaddy123]

I'll take the pick.
JSN's rookie season has some very scary things to say about his future.

[tstafford]

I'm still in on JSN and paying that price.

[Black Adam]

I'll take the pick.
JSN's rookie season has some very scary things to say about his future.

^This, I'm not paying a late 1st after seeing that.

[BigBawseRoss]

its a 4 pick discount from last year! this price went down how shocking lol. i think this price is fine but not jumping for joy over it and could see his value going down and being a better buy window next year but this is still a discount from original sticker price. my stance is ya hes talented, ya i want him in dynasty, but i dont think anything is changing this year so its seeming unlikely to me he pops off and sees a big value surge. he will likely retain mid first to late first value or drop further. dont see him going up to elite rookie pick or multiple first type value in 12 months basically

[Viking386]

its a 4 pick discount from last year! this price went down how shocking lol. i think this price is fine but not jumping for joy over it and could see his value going down and being a better buy window next year but this is still a discount from original sticker price. my stance is ya hes talented, ya i want him in dynasty, but i dont think anything is changing this year so its seeming unlikely to me he pops off and sees a big value surge. he will likely retain mid first to late first value or drop further. dont see him going up to elite rookie pick or multiple first type value in 12 months basically

I like this thought process. Doesnt hurt to wait it out and try and buy him cheaper. I also dont think his rookie season was quite the failure some think in this post. Came into the season injured and behind 2 really good WRs and still earned nearly 100 targets and had 600 yards. I know in the world of JJ and Chase we all expect them to bloom year 1 but he showed a lot of positives. The 1.07 isnt a very sexy pick but Ill probably wait this one out come draft time and see how things fall.

[Nightmares]

JSN pretty easily for me. Lockett is turning 32, and I think Grubb is going to be very good for Geno, Metcalf and JSN.

[yinzername]

I'm on record as a JSN doubter, I'm keeping the pick for sure

[Tvols]

I want JSN and I dont think no what happens, JSN will drop anymore than he already has especially since lockett has resigned. I think we need see what happens in that offense and how he is used. He was improving last year at the end of the year. this is fair value and if you are in on JSN this is a decent buy imo.

[MacDaddy123]

its a 4 pick discount from last year! this price went down how shocking lol. i think this price is fine but not jumping for joy over it and could see his value going down and being a better buy window next year but this is still a discount from original sticker price. my stance is ya hes talented, ya i want him in dynasty, but i dont think anything is changing this year so its seeming unlikely to me he pops off and sees a big value surge. he will likely retain mid first to late first value or drop further. dont see him going up to elite rookie pick or multiple first type value in 12 months basically

I like this thought process. Doesnt hurt to wait it out and try and buy him cheaper. I also dont think his rookie season was quite the failure some think in this post. Came into the season injured and behind 2 really good WRs and still earned nearly 100 targets and had 600 yards. I know in the world of JJ and Chase we all expect them to bloom year 1 but he showed a lot of positives. The 1.07 isnt a very sexy pick but Ill probably wait this one out come draft time and see how things fall.

Here is a list of WR's in the past 10 years who have received 1st round draft capital yet produced fewer than 9 PPR PPG in their rookie season.
And yes, many of these WR's all had excuses after their rookie seasons as well as JSN.
Some even missed their entire rookie season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Quentin Johnston

Treylon Burks
Jameson Williams

Rashod Bateman

Henry Ruggs
Jalen Reagor

N'Keal Harry

Corey Davis
Mike Williams
John Ross

Will Fuller V
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell

Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett

So, who is the "winner" of this bunch?
Mike Williams? Is that what we are hoping we can get out of JSN?

[Anteaters]

Mike Williams? Is that what we are hoping we can get out of JSN?

Another question: If Mike Williams' production is the goal for JSN holders, at what point in Mike Williams' career did his value fall below 1.07?

[yinzername]

These last two posts are what’s up. The historical comp is enough to pivot off JSN. If you trade him away with some draft cap for a proven WR in that 12-18 range, who cares if u were wrong about him. You’ll live. If he tanks on your squad and just turns into a 3rd if you’re lucky, well, you wont be psyched with your process.

The follow up question by Ant is exactly the sort of thing you should be asking yourself if you think he’s a hold for now

[tstafford]

The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.