2024 Combine

[PigeonBoys]

Theoretically, say Vikings don’t keep Kirk, but trade into top 10 and draft JJM. Where would you put JJM in rookie drafts? Good draft capital. Almost couldn’t have a better situation with the pass happy offense and weapons there.

I'm hearing the Vikes apparently "adore" The Drake. Whether or not that could get done is one thing but I also feel like this is smokescreen season where everyone says crazy stuff. Remember Levis challenging for the top pick last year lol and he ended up being a 2nd rounder.

I was hearing JJM jumped Daniels due to his combine performance. How much truth there is to that, who knows?

[yinzername]

in non TE Prem I now have BTJ as my WR4 and ahead of Bowers

and yes I just spammed tghis opinion across a handful of threads

You were also generous with number of letters used

g thanks

[Bronco Billy]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

[yinzername]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

of course, I think that's clear and well known (side-eye's LAC and QJ)

but you can often hear the murmurs of a bit if how many teams have this round or that round gread on a guy, so it might be a little clearer when it feels like just one team is reaching. And of course there's the investment, a team throws a first on a guy, they're gonna try to get money out of'em. Take the Trey Lance example, he was still viable in NFL and DFF trades through last off-season. Now if you get to precious with sunk-cost, and refuse to take the loss in capital, that's on you. But if you like a guy, he goes in the first, he busts, he doesn't have to rot on your bench. you just gotta be quick and take what you can get

[Bronco Billy]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

of course, I think that's clear and well known (side-eye's LAC and QJ)

but you can often hear the murmurs of a bit if how many teams have this round or that round gread on a guy, so it might be a little clearer when it feels like just one team is reaching. And of course there's the investment, a team throws a first on a guy, they're gonna try to get money out of'em. Take the Trey Lance example, he was still viable in NFL and DFF trades through last off-season. Now if you get to precious with sunk-cost, and refuse to take the loss in capital, that's on you. But if you like a guy, he goes in the first, he busts, he doesn't have to rot on your bench. you just gotta be quick and take what you can get

And he’s still doing d**k for his FF teams. The only thing he has done is burn up roster space. But oh that DC!

But yeah, I get your point but I am so skeptical when I see film on guys who either have a fatal flaw or has very few transferrable skills (IMO of course and God knows I’ve been wrong enough) and then they get that oh so important DC and then FFers continue to rely on that DC sometimes for years in discussions when the fact is that the guy has created a mediocre or worse resume in the NFL.

[Cameron Giles]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

It's not bulletproof, but if you had to use only one variable, draft capital would have the strongest correlation to success. Of course, it stops meaning something once there's a meaningful sample size in the NFL.

[yinzername]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

of course, I think that's clear and well known (side-eye's LAC and QJ)

but you can often hear the murmurs of a bit if how many teams have this round or that round gread on a guy, so it might be a little clearer when it feels like just one team is reaching. And of course there's the investment, a team throws a first on a guy, they're gonna try to get money out of'em. Take the Trey Lance example, he was still viable in NFL and DFF trades through last off-season. Now if you get to precious with sunk-cost, and refuse to take the loss in capital, that's on you. But if you like a guy, he goes in the first, he busts, he doesn't have to rot on your bench. you just gotta be quick and take what you can get

And he’s still doing d**k for his FF teams. The only thing he has done is burn up roster space. But oh that DC!

But yeah, I get your point but I am so skeptical when I see film on guys who either have a fatal flaw or has very few transferrable skills (IMO of course and God knows I’ve been wrong enough) and then they get that oh so important DC and then FFers continue to rely on that DC sometimes for years in discussions when the fact is that the guy has created a mediocre or worse resume in the NFL.

I'm curious who you think could fall into this category this draft? who are your fatal flaw guys?

I'd guess we'd have to wait til after the draft to suss out the "fake "firsts". Some team with a bad track record or serious need reaches for someone we didn't hear getting a lot of 1st round grades from the league...

[CGW]

It's not the end all be all, but draft capital does have positive correlation to NFL success and should be a piece of the puzzle.

More importantly than high capital, which just confirms my predraft opinions, I want to see those who fall. That doesn't just mean one team passed on them, but the whole league. Players like Levis, Boutte, Butler. I do avoid those players in general. I'll let someone else take that reach.

[remedy29]

James Cook is an example where the fantasy community laughed at his draft capital and said he didn't deserve it. The reality was Buffalo valued him and intended to use him, to the tune of RB11 finish in 2023. And dare I say, looked very deserving of the draft capital that 1 team gave him.

[wickerkat1212]

The fallers are even more important, agree CGW. Look at Boutte, wow, that was quite a drop.

[Cameron Giles]

If you took a random WR from Day 1 of your rookie draft each of the last 4 years:

2023: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Johnston, Addison
2022: London, Wilson, Olave, Wiliams, Dotson, Burks
2021: Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, Toney
2020: Ruggs, Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, Jefferson, Aiyuk

Hit: 11/21 (52%)

- About half of the players that go in the 1st round hit. The other half don't for whatever reason. It's about as strong a correlation as you'll ever find.

If you took a random WR from Day 2 of your rookie draft:

2023: Mingo, Reed, Rice, M. Mims, Dell, Hyatt, Tillman, Downs, M. Wilson, Tucker
2022: Watson, Robinson, Metchie, Thornton, Pickens, Pierce, S. Moore, V. Jones, Tolbert, Gray, Bell
2021: E. Moore, R. Moore, Eskridge, Atwell, Marshall, Palmer, D. Brown, Rodgers, Collins, Schwartz
2020: Higgins, Pittman, Shenault, Hamler, Claypool, V. Jefferson, Mims, Bowden, Edwards, Duvernay

Hit: 9/41 (22%)

- That's a steep drop, even with getting solid Day 2 Pedigree. This could have more hits than usual in this area, though worth remembering that even a strong group like 2022 has had a ton of Day 2 duds.

Open it up to the rest of the draft. It'll just be easier to list the players who did hit.

2023: Puka (1/19)
2022: N/A (0/11)
2021: Amon-Ra (1/20)
2020: Mooney (1/19)

Hit: 3/69 (4%)

Basically a lottery ticket hoping for the next AB, Diggs, Amon-Ra, Puka, etc.

You're better off using these as sweeteners to move up somewhere else. Don't let "depth" fool you. 2014 is arguably the best WR class ever and there are no useful WRs drafted on Day 3 in that group. The closest was Martavis Bryant. Same thing with 2022 (Doubs). If your player falls to Day 3, it's worth considering that they aren't very good.

Draft capital is probably the most logical, all inclusive variable you can utilize. Yes, the NFL makes mistakes....a bunch of them, but more often than not they get it right with the players who can't play.

[mild]

I hear a lot about draft capital yet again. We realize that it only takes one team to create draft capital by selecting a player and that there could be 31 other teams in the league who think they are complete idiots by drafting that particular player so early, right?

Draft capital is not established by the NFL. It is established by the opinion of one team and one team only.

And while we're here blowing holes in your what-about-ism...

Draft Capital is a key input for a lot of the Prospect Modelling that is done around the Fantasy community by more stat-heavy analysts.

Not that you're into that kind of thing, but this is why your overall point is bad. JJ Zachariason explains more about how his Prospect Model works, and why DC is far more important for him than anything that might happen at the Combine in his latest episode here.

[Menace2010]

If you took a random WR from Day 1 of your rookie draft each of the last 4 years:

2023: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Johnston, Addison
2022: London, Wilson, Olave, Wiliams, Dotson, Burks
2021: Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, Toney
2020: Ruggs, Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, Jefferson, Aiyuk

Hit: 11/21 (52%)

- About half of the players that go in the 1st round hit. The other half don't for whatever reason. It's about as strong a correlation as you'll ever find.

If you took a random WR from Day 2 of your rookie draft:

2023: Mingo, Reed, Rice, M. Mims, Dell, Hyatt, Tillman, Downs, M. Wilson, Tucker
2022: Watson, Robinson, Metchie, Thornton, Pickens, Pierce, S. Moore, V. Jones, Tolbert, Gray, Bell
2021: E. Moore, R. Moore, Eskridge, Atwell, Marshall, Palmer, D. Brown, Rodgers, Collins, Schwartz
2020: Higgins, Pittman, Shenault, Hamler, Claypool, V. Jefferson, Mims, Bowden, Edwards, Duvernay

Hit: 9/41 (22%)

- That's a steep drop, even with getting solid Day 2 Pedigree. This could have more hits than usual in this area, though worth remembering that even a strong group like 2022 has had a ton of Day 2 duds.

Open it up to the rest of the draft. It'll just be easier to list the players who did hit.

2023: Puka (1/19)
2022: N/A (0/11)
2021: Amon-Ra (1/20)
2020: Mooney (1/19)

Hit: 3/69 (4%)

Basically a lottery ticket hoping for the next AB, Diggs, Amon-Ra, Puka, etc.

You're better off using these as sweeteners to move up somewhere else. Don't let "depth" fool you. 2014 is arguably the best WR class ever and there are no useful WRs drafted on Day 3 in that group. The closest was Martavis Bryant. Same thing with 2022 (Doubs). If your player falls to Day 3, it's worth considering that they aren't very good.

Draft capital is probably the most logical, all inclusive variable you can utilize. Yes, the NFL makes mistakes....a bunch of them, but more often than not they get it right with the players who can't play.

Fantastic post. Thanks for doing all the stats/legwork to pull it together.

[Menace2010]

Will add to my above, we shouldn't dismiss everyone that isn't bolded quite yet. In 2021 and 2022 Nico would have been classified in the other bucket. I still hold out hope for a few of the guys drafted in 2022 and 2023 that haven't hit yet.

[Cameron Giles]

Will add to my above, we shouldn't dismiss everyone that isn't bolded quite yet. In 2021 and 2022 Nico would have been classified in the other bucket. I still hold out hope for a few of the guys drafted in 2022 and 2023 that haven't hit yet.

Right. I think there are a few players who aren't hits that could still pan out as well, though it's becoming increasingly unlikely.

Ultimately, we can use all the stats and watch all the game tape we want. But, if you merely did the following:

1. Draft players with R1 pedigree.
2. Draft players with Day 2 pedigree.
3. Invest very little into players with Day 3 pedigree.

You'd probably do better than any other route. Draft capital is the most essential component there is. It's very unlikely that any of us can outsmart the NFL over a long sample size by disregarding it.