WR size consideration (FUN for the 1.1!)

[Cameron Giles]

I still don't see how you are supposed to take anything away from this data confidently.

1. BMI varies wildly from site to site as players go up/down an inch or 5 lbs and it skews the entire sample.
2. The sample you are looking at for <26 BMI is insanely small and most of those guys were not Elite prospects.
3. The NFL has changed drastically since the likes of Calvin and Fitz. A guy like Tank Dell would not have survived 15 years ago. Now, its almost a hinderance to be tall (unless you can actually run routes at 6'4")

I see people trying to make a cutoff for 27 BMI. WR that are at least 6'2" and >27 BMI past 4 years
Rd 1: Burks
Rd 2: Mingo, Pittman, Claypool
Rd 3: Michael Wilson
Day 3: Gabe Davis, Peoples-Jones, and a lot of duds

Not to mention, players do not play at their billed weight. There's stories of players playing anywhere from 5-15 lbs less than what they're listed at, and sometimes on the heavier side in the case of linemen.

It's a fun theoretical exercise, but it's based on information that isn't reliable and varies game to game.

[Valhalla]

...players go up/down an inch or 5 lbs and it skews the entire sample.
...

... With players gaming the scales at the combine, I’m not sure how there even confidence in the cluster range.

No one goes up and down an inch. Not since the college-like vagueness of the Randy Moss days. It's not just "hey Randy how tall are you? 6'5" 210? OK got it." Guys since the early 2000s if I recall correctly have been coming out of college and been reality checked at the combine with accurate height and weight. The height simply won't vary that much.
As for the weight, yeah people game it. Realistically if a guy drinks a full gallon of water right before weigh in (pretty difficult) and he's in this height range, it will raise his BMI ~0.8. It's not like they're skewing their BMI a couple points here, a couple there. That just isn't possible unless they come to the scale wearing some pretty heavy ankle weights, and that MIGHT be noticed. They might try to add water, but most guys won't be doing a gallon type thing, so maybe they'll skew it a few tenths of a BMI. As for adding legitimate weight in muscle, well they've added that, changed their body. That isn't gaming the scales.
Their BMI is roughly what it is. In college or Randy's NFL day, when they can/could lie about their height and weight and that's the reported measure, then sure the BMI is/was just entirely unreliable.

[Jigga94]

...players go up/down an inch or 5 lbs and it skews the entire sample.
...

... With players gaming the scales at the combine, I’m not sure how there even confidence in the cluster range.

No one goes up and down an inch. Not since the college-like vagueness of the Randy Moss days. It's not just "hey Randy how tall are you? 6'5" 210? OK got it." Guys since the early 2000s if I recall correctly have been coming out of college and been reality checked at the combine with accurate height and weight. The height simply won't vary that much.
As for the weight, yeah people game it. Realistically if a guy drinks a full gallon of water right before weigh in (pretty difficult) and he's in this height range, it will raise his BMI ~0.8. It's not like they're skewing their BMI a couple points here, a couple there. That just isn't possible unless they come to the scale wearing some pretty heavy ankle weights, and that MIGHT be noticed. They might try to add water, but most guys won't be doing a gallon type thing, so maybe they'll skew it a few tenths of a BMI. As for adding legitimate weight in muscle, well they've added that, changed their body. That isn't gaming the scales.
Their BMI is roughly what it is. In college or Randy's NFL day, when they can/could lie about their height and weight and that's the reported measure, then sure the BMI is/was just entirely unreliable.

I didn't literally mean players shrink and grow (height wise) game to game

But yes players can adjust their BMI nearly a full point for the combine if they wanted, making a cutoff at 26 or 27 pretty meaningless

[Bronco Billy]

...players go up/down an inch or 5 lbs and it skews the entire sample.
...

... With players gaming the scales at the combine, I’m not sure how there even confidence in the cluster range.

No one goes up and down an inch. Not since the college-like vagueness of the Randy Moss days. It's not just "hey Randy how tall are you? 6'5" 210? OK got it." Guys since the early 2000s if I recall correctly have been coming out of college and been reality checked at the combine with accurate height and weight. The height simply won't vary that much.
As for the weight, yeah people game it. Realistically if a guy drinks a full gallon of water right before weigh in (pretty difficult) and he's in this height range, it will raise his BMI ~0.8. It's not like they're skewing their BMI a couple points here, a couple there. That just isn't possible unless they come to the scale wearing some pretty heavy ankle weights, and that MIGHT be noticed. They might try to add water, but most guys won't be doing a gallon type thing, so maybe they'll skew it a few tenths of a BMI. As for adding legitimate weight in muscle, well they've added that, changed their body. That isn't gaming the scales.
Their BMI is roughly what it is. In college or Randy's NFL day, when they can/could lie about their height and weight and that's the reported measure, then sure the BMI is/was just entirely unreliable.

[Valhalla]

...
But yes players can adjust their BMI nearly a full point for the combine if they wanted, making a cutoff at 26 or 27 pretty meaningless

At this height, BMI gets harder to cheat because it takes more water weight to alter it. They would have to drink over a gallon of water pretty quickly (because your bladder will start filling pretty quick when you're over-hydrating) to alter it a full BMI. It's not easy to drink THAT much water in short order.
A half gallon (that's about 3 20 oz bottles) chugged 20 minutes before weigh in (what some guys likely do) will raise their BMI ~0.4 at 6'3.

[Jigga94]

...
But yes players can adjust their BMI nearly a full point for the combine if they wanted, making a cutoff at 26 or 27 pretty meaningless

At this height, BMI gets harder to cheat because it takes more water weight to alter it. They would have to drink over a gallon of water pretty quickly (because your bladder will start filling pretty quick when you're over-hydrating) to alter it a full BMI. It's not easy to drink THAT much water in short order.
A half gallon (that's about 3 20 oz bottles) chugged 20 minutes before weigh in (what some guys likely do) will raise their BMI ~0.4 at 6'3.

Players have months to put on weight (or drop) for the weigh ins. Its not like they are spontaneously called in and then chug half a gallon.

Back to the point: Using combine BMI might be all we have, but you can't draw any conclusions from it alone

[Valhalla]

Players have months to put on weight (or drop) for the weigh ins. Its not like they are spontaneously called in and then chug half a gallon.

Back to the point: Using combine BMI might be all we have, but you can't draw any conclusions from it alone

The banging your head against a wall suggests you're getting upset. Sorry bud.

Putting on SUSTAINED weight over months is not water weight. It's muscle mass. That is NOT gaming the scales. It's legitimately putting on muscle mass, changing their body, which they should be given credit for. Do you think WRs are gaining 15 lbs of muscle mass for the combine, then letting it atrophy away again to return to a customary playing weight?

They can game the scales with water, and they can't game it that much.

[Cameron Giles]

Players have months to put on weight (or drop) for the weigh ins. Its not like they are spontaneously called in and then chug half a gallon.

Back to the point: Using combine BMI might be all we have, but you can't draw any conclusions from it alone

The banging your head against a wall suggests you're getting upset. Sorry bud.

Putting on SUSTAINED weight over months is not water weight. It's muscle mass. That is NOT gaming the scales. It's legitimately putting on muscle mass, changing their body, which they should be given credit for. Do you think WRs are gaining 15 lbs of muscle mass for the combine, then letting it atrophy away again to return to a customary playing weight?

They can game the scales with water, and they can't game it that much.

Chad Johnson's billed weight is 188. He weighed in at the combine 192. He said on a podcast that he played at 175 and sometimes 170.

[Jigga94]

Players have months to put on weight (or drop) for the weigh ins. Its not like they are spontaneously called in and then chug half a gallon.

Back to the point: Using combine BMI might be all we have, but you can't draw any conclusions from it alone

The banging your head against a wall suggests you're getting upset. Sorry bud.

Putting on SUSTAINED weight over months is not water weight. It's muscle mass. That is NOT gaming the scales. It's legitimately putting on muscle mass, changing their body, which they should be given credit for. Do you think WRs are gaining 15 lbs of muscle mass for the combine, then letting it atrophy away again to return to a customary playing weight?

They can game the scales with water, and they can't game it that much.

Not upset at all, we are just on different pages here

[Valhalla]

...

Chad Johnson's billed weight is 188. He weighed in at the combine 192. He said on a podcast that he played at 175 and sometimes 170.

-Missing the premise that this might actually matter more as WRs get taller.
-Chad Johnson says a lot of stuff to get a rise out of people. He's pretty much known for that.
-I see him quoted as saying 180 and sometimes 175, not 175 and sometimes 170. See how things get carried away with just talk and without actual measurements?
-WHEN was he 175? During his elite NFL years? In college? Or at the tail end of his career? And was he actually 175 or just exaggerating to solidify his point that "size doesn't matter" as talk gets away from/exaggerates truth for us sometimes?
- I wasn't proposing a strict rule, but a statistical trend/prototype range. Finding a player outside of this sample size mold, even if he's an outlier, doesn't wreck the mold. We deal with probabilities, not strict molds.
- Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Randy Moss. Tell me which of these players you think was/is playing 15lbs under their combine weight. I'd venture (not KNOW) that these guys were more likely to GROW in muscle mass after a few years of NFL training, not the other way around.

[Bronco Billy]

...

Chad Johnson's billed weight is 188. He weighed in at the combine 192. He said on a podcast that he played at 175 and sometimes 170.

-Missing the premise that this might actually matter more as WRs get taller.
-Chad Johnson says a lot of stuff to get a rise out of people. He's pretty much known for that.
-I see him quoted as saying 180 and sometimes 175, not 175 and sometimes 170. See how things get carried away with just talk and without actual measurements?
-WHEN was he 175? During his elite NFL years? In college? Or at the tail end of his career? And was he actually 175 or just exaggerating to solidify his point that "size doesn't matter" as talk gets away from/exaggerates truth for us sometimes?
- I wasn't proposing a strict rule, but a statistical trend/prototype range. Finding a player outside of this sample size mold, even if he's an outlier, doesn't wreck the mold. We deal with probabilities, not strict molds.
- Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Randy Moss. Tell me which of these players you think was/is playing 15lbs under their combine weight. I'd venture (not KNOW) that these guys were more likely to GROW in muscle mass after a few years of NFL training, not the other way around.

Emmanuel Sanders tells a story of drinking 2 gallons of water and gaining ~16 lbs in the few hours before his weighin. He was extraordinarily concerned that he’d be dismissed as a smurf (my description, not his) and slammed water beforehand. Is there any reason that you know of that he’d lie as badly as you presume Johnson does?

There are plenty of stories of hoards of empty 1 gallon milk jugs behind the stands at the Senior Bowl right before weighins every year. Presumably the seniors are loading water and not milk, but that would also indicate that this is a normal practice.

As to the bolded above, I thought you were basing your drafting criteria on combine weights. If so, what difference would players’ weights later in their career matter? I know Terrell Davis told stories of bulking up his weight prior to the season so that he'd weigh in around 210 lbs but during the rigors of the season that he’d always struggle to even hit the 200 lb mark. These guys burn tons of calories in camp and in season and a lot of these guys probably already have high metabolisms.

Let me ask you a question - if someone said they’d pay you $1 million dollars if you could gain 15 pounds in 2 weeks - eating and drinking in any kind of schedule and whatever foods and liquids you wanted, right up to 5 minutes before you were weighed - could you do it? Because gaining some position in the draft because you increase your mass can mean that much in your first contract, and even more for some. That seems like a pretty easy ask to me.

[Valhalla]

...

Chad Johnson's billed weight is 188. He weighed in at the combine 192. He said on a podcast that he played at 175 and sometimes 170.

-Missing the premise that this might actually matter more as WRs get taller.
-Chad Johnson says a lot of stuff to get a rise out of people. He's pretty much known for that.
-I see him quoted as saying 180 and sometimes 175, not 175 and sometimes 170. See how things get carried away with just talk and without actual measurements?
-WHEN was he 175? During his elite NFL years? In college? Or at the tail end of his career? And was he actually 175 or just exaggerating to solidify his point that "size doesn't matter" as talk gets away from/exaggerates truth for us sometimes?
- I wasn't proposing a strict rule, but a statistical trend/prototype range. Finding a player outside of this sample size mold, even if he's an outlier, doesn't wreck the mold. We deal with probabilities, not strict molds.
- Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Randy Moss. Tell me which of these players you think was/is playing 15lbs under their combine weight. I'd venture (not KNOW) that these guys were more likely to GROW in muscle mass after a few years of NFL training, not the other way around.

Emmanuel Sanders tells a story of drinking 2 gallons of water and gaining ~16 lbs in the few hours before his weighin. He was extraordinarily concerned that he’d be dismissed as a smurf (my description, not his) and slammed water beforehand. Is there any reason that you know of that he’d lie as badly as you presume Johnson does?

There are plenty of stories of hoards of empty 1 gallon milk jugs behind the stands at the Senior Bowl right before weighins every year. Presumably the seniors are loading water and not milk, but that would also indicate that this is a normal practice.

As to the bolded above, I thought you were basing your drafting criteria on combine weights. If so, what difference would players’ weights later in their career matter? I know Terrell Davis told stories of bulking up his weight prior to the season so that he'd weigh in around 210 lbs but during the rigors of the season that he’d always struggle to even hit the 200 lb mark. These guys burn tons of calories in camp and in season and a lot of these guys probably already have high metabolisms.

Let me ask you a question - if someone said they’d pay you $1 million dollars if you could gain 15 pounds in 2 weeks - eating and drinking in any kind of schedule and whatever foods and liquids you wanted, right up to 5 minutes before you were weighed - could you do it? Because gaining some position in the draft because you increase your mass can mean that much in your first contract, and even more for some. That seems like a pretty easy ask to me.

1. Recalling drinking two gallons is a pretty specific thing, so I have no reason to question Sanders' statement. Chad was talking about his play weight, which can be more easily misremembered. Saying Chad might be misremembering and saying "Chad and Emmanuel are LIARS!" is a bit different, but sure paint me in that lighting.
2. OK so maybe they are all chugging a gallon of water. That's ~0.8 BMI at 6'4".
3. The "starting" frame (for lack of better words right now) DOES matter, because sure you could say "Hey, maybe player A weighs in at ___ BMI, but the rigors of the NFL actually have him playing at ___." Well...then sure maybe they play at a lower BMI than their combine BMI, but so would Marvin. It's not bringing them closer to his size, because by the same reasoning he would also be playing even lighter than his already outlier slimness.
4. Do you think any trainers, any agents, any nutritionists, are encouraging their players to just pack in whatever they can eat, any sort of food or drink, weeks before the combine? I'm sorry but that's just ignorant to the reality of the process. They want them to pack on as much lean weight as they can, not just weight, and they don't usually gain THAT much because they're training to be explosive. Lean weight takes a LOT of work, and they do that...but they SHOULD be given credit for that weight, because it's new muscle cells, new neural connections, and muscle memory that they are gaining, which they carry into their careers! It's not a cheat to lie to the scales in that case. They have those guys taking excellent care of their bodies. Are there some cases where guys will pack in whatever, only weigh in and not do any drills? Yep. And everyone is then suspect of their actual game shape weight.

[Cameron Giles]

...

Chad Johnson's billed weight is 188. He weighed in at the combine 192. He said on a podcast that he played at 175 and sometimes 170.

-Missing the premise that this might actually matter more as WRs get taller.
-Chad Johnson says a lot of stuff to get a rise out of people. He's pretty much known for that.
-I see him quoted as saying 180 and sometimes 175, not 175 and sometimes 170. See how things get carried away with just talk and without actual measurements?
-WHEN was he 175? During his elite NFL years? In college? Or at the tail end of his career? And was he actually 175 or just exaggerating to solidify his point that "size doesn't matter" as talk gets away from/exaggerates truth for us sometimes?
- I wasn't proposing a strict rule, but a statistical trend/prototype range. Finding a player outside of this sample size mold, even if he's an outlier, doesn't wreck the mold. We deal with probabilities, not strict molds.
- Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Randy Moss. Tell me which of these players you think was/is playing 15lbs under their combine weight. I'd venture (not KNOW) that these guys were more likely to GROW in muscle mass after a few years of NFL training, not the other way around.

My guess is most of, if not all of them.

It's generally accepted and known that NFL players do not play at their billed weight. I remember Antonio Brown saying he plays 10-15 lbs lighter than the 185 he was listed at. That part of the combine is basically a beauty pageant. Players get to a number that looks pretty for teams, and then they go back to their regularly scheduled program.

Yes, some players can gain mass for the combine and still do drills at a high level, but they also don't play in games at that weight. Anything that uses weight and BMI as a key component has to be taken with a grain of salt, because that number isn't a set weight.

[Bronco Billy]

-Missing the premise that this might actually matter more as WRs get taller.
-Chad Johnson says a lot of stuff to get a rise out of people. He's pretty much known for that.
-I see him quoted as saying 180 and sometimes 175, not 175 and sometimes 170. See how things get carried away with just talk and without actual measurements?
-WHEN was he 175? During his elite NFL years? In college? Or at the tail end of his career? And was he actually 175 or just exaggerating to solidify his point that "size doesn't matter" as talk gets away from/exaggerates truth for us sometimes?
- I wasn't proposing a strict rule, but a statistical trend/prototype range. Finding a player outside of this sample size mold, even if he's an outlier, doesn't wreck the mold. We deal with probabilities, not strict molds.
- Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Randy Moss. Tell me which of these players you think was/is playing 15lbs under their combine weight. I'd venture (not KNOW) that these guys were more likely to GROW in muscle mass after a few years of NFL training, not the other way around.

Emmanuel Sanders tells a story of drinking 2 gallons of water and gaining ~16 lbs in the few hours before his weighin. He was extraordinarily concerned that he’d be dismissed as a smurf (my description, not his) and slammed water beforehand. Is there any reason that you know of that he’d lie as badly as you presume Johnson does?

There are plenty of stories of hoards of empty 1 gallon milk jugs behind the stands at the Senior Bowl right before weighins every year. Presumably the seniors are loading water and not milk, but that would also indicate that this is a normal practice.

As to the bolded above, I thought you were basing your drafting criteria on combine weights. If so, what difference would players’ weights later in their career matter? I know Terrell Davis told stories of bulking up his weight prior to the season so that he'd weigh in around 210 lbs but during the rigors of the season that he’d always struggle to even hit the 200 lb mark. These guys burn tons of calories in camp and in season and a lot of these guys probably already have high metabolisms.

Let me ask you a question - if someone said they’d pay you $1 million dollars if you could gain 15 pounds in 2 weeks - eating and drinking in any kind of schedule and whatever foods and liquids you wanted, right up to 5 minutes before you were weighed - could you do it? Because gaining some position in the draft because you increase your mass can mean that much in your first contract, and even more for some. That seems like a pretty easy ask to me.

1. Recalling drinking two gallons is a pretty specific thing, so I have no reason to question Sanders' statement. Chad was talking about his play weight, which can be more easily misremembered. Saying Chad might be misremembering and saying "Chad and Emmanuel are LIARS!" is a bit different, but sure paint me in that lighting.
2. OK so maybe they are all chugging a gallon of water. That's ~0.8 BMI at 6'4".
3. The "starting" frame (for lack of better words right now) DOES matter, because sure you could say "Hey, maybe player A weighs in at ___ BMI, but the rigors of the NFL actually have him playing at ___." Well...then sure maybe they play at a lower BMI than their combine BMI, but so would Marvin. It's not bringing them closer to his size, because by the same reasoning he would also be playing even lighter than his already outlier slimness.
4. Do you think any trainers, any agents, any nutritionists, are encouraging their players to just pack in whatever they can eat, any sort of food or drink, weeks before the combine? I'm sorry but that's just ignorant to the reality of the process. They want them to pack on as much lean weight as they can, not just weight, and they don't usually gain THAT much because they're training to be explosive. Lean weight takes a LOT of work, and they do that...but they SHOULD be given credit for that weight, because it's new muscle cells, new neural connections, and muscle memory that they are gaining, which they carry into their careers! It's not a cheat to lie to the scales in that case. They have those guys taking excellent care of their bodies. Are there some cases where guys will pack in whatever, only weigh in and not do any drills? Yep. And everyone is then suspect of their actual game shape weight.

This isn’t permanent positive tissue weight gain we’re discussing. This is short term weight that can be shed easily (especially water that can be easily and quickly ejected by consuming diuretics) so that the scale goes up but performance is not meaningfully impacted. It’s absolutely a game that’s being played because it impacts draft position which impacts bonuses and contract size. Everyone tied to the prospect’s future is a willing participant.

[mild]

Not to mention, players do not play at their billed weight. There's stories of players playing anywhere from 5-15 lbs less than what they're listed at, and sometimes on the heavier side in the case of linemen.

It's a fun theoretical exercise, but it's based on information that isn't reliable and varies game to game.

And while we're here - does anyone else find it funny that once a player is weighed at the Combine, they never re-weigh them officially during their career?

I think making hard cutoffs for BMI based on their body as a 19 or 20 or 21 year old is kind of fruitless.

So long as they're around the right sort of range, I'm open to them being a couple points off of a supposed threshold if I love the player, especially if they have a frame that can grow.