Brandon Aiyuk: on the move...?

[Jigga94]

Is it just me or is this a screaming buy low opportunity?

Guys who have his level of rookie year almost always hit

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

[Sriracha]

Is it just me or is this a screaming buy low opportunity?

Guys who have his level of rookie year almost always hit

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

[Jigga94]

Is it just me or is this a screaming buy low opportunity?

Guys who have his level of rookie year almost always hit

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

I feel like I couldn't tell anyone Aiyuk was overpriced this offseason. Seriously, he was valued above guys like Evans, Cooper, Higgins, Claypool, Jeudy. Its similar to how I felt about Sutton (pre injury) just being overvalued for my taste.

What's weird to me... if it is a maturity thing, wouldn't it have been an issue last year? He performed so well and now he's benched? Something stinks

Fwiw, I thought Deebo fell way too far but kind of believed it due to his durability concerns. If he's healthy, he's the guy I'd want there, but I'm not sold on that. Otherwise, I think he's a great talent and perfect fit

[StripesOfKC]

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

I feel like I couldn't tell anyone Aiyuk was overpriced this offseason. Seriously, he was valued above guys like Evans, Cooper, Higgins, Claypool, Jeudy. Its similar to how I felt about Sutton (pre injury) just being overvalued for my taste.

What's weird to me... if it is a maturity thing, wouldn't it have been an issue last year? He performed so well and now he's benched? Something stinks

Fwiw, I thought Deebo fell way too far but kind of believed it due to his durability concerns. If he's healthy, he's the guy I'd want there, but I'm not sold on that. Otherwise, I think he's a great talent and perfect fit

Aiyuk absolutely should be valued over Jeudy and Evans after last year

He was better than Jeudy by pretty much anything that matters

[Sriracha]

I feel like I couldn't tell anyone Aiyuk was overpriced this offseason. Seriously, he was valued above guys like Evans, Cooper, Higgins, Claypool, Jeudy. Its similar to how I felt about Sutton (pre injury) just being overvalued for my taste.

What's weird to me... if it is a maturity thing, wouldn't it have been an issue last year? He performed so well and now he's benched? Something stinks

Fwiw, I thought Deebo fell way too far but kind of believed it due to his durability concerns. If he's healthy, he's the guy I'd want there, but I'm not sold on that. Otherwise, I think he's a great talent and perfect fit

For me, Deebo fell because of his usage last year indicating that he was more of a gadget player than an all-around WR. His ADoT was incredibly low and Aiyuk was getting the more impactful targets downfield. His usage in training camp alleviated that issue for me and was why I started to target him in the off-season.

As far as his maturity only now being an issue.. Aiyuk may have thought he had already "arrived" after so many pundits were bloviating about how great he was during his abbreviated rookie season.

Everyone handles success differently and sometimes they let it get to their heads.

Still a big believer in Sutton. Broncos just treated him with Kid gloves coming back from the ACL and that game wasn't really in doubt. I'll be interested to see if there's more urgency with his usage this week vs JAX with no Jeudy or if they'll continue to ease him back in because they'll be heavily favored.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Is it just me or is this a screaming buy low opportunity?

Guys who have his level of rookie year almost always hit

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

I don't think these were signs he was over valued at all. These are all pretty solid reasons he was valued where he was. If he doesn't live up to the hoped outcome it would be an outlier to me rather than a "should have seen this coming"

Every rookie and young player has a chance of hitting or missing and afterwards we tend to say, "I should have seen this coming" or "I told you so" or whatever. But it's not perfect science. Those reasons for his value you mentioned are damned good reasons to value him highly. Don't beat yourself up if it doesn't work out. The one area we can never evaluate well is emotional/mental maturity and how a player handles the fame/spotlight/distractions/discipline/drive. Which is also why analyzing QBs is nearly impossible.

[esloan35]

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

I don't think these were signs he was over valued at all. These are all pretty solid reasons he was valued where he was. If he doesn't live up to the hoped outcome it would be an outlier to me rather than a "should have seen this coming"

Every rookie and young player has a chance of hitting or missing and afterwards we tend to say, "I should have seen this coming" or "I told you so" or whatever. But it's not perfect science. Those reasons for his value you mentioned are damned good reasons to value him highly. Don't beat yourself up if it doesn't work out. The one area we can never evaluate well is emotional/mental maturity and how a player handles the fame/spotlight/distractions/discipline/drive. Which is also why analyzing QBs is nearly impossible.

The kid is an athletic freak. I’m buying low if I can all day.

[Sriracha]

Probably a buy low, but something tells me he was way overvalued this offseason. I mean Shanahan said Sherfield outperformed him in practice. That's not good and why people are talking about Pettis

I was glued into the 49ers training camp all off-season (mostly because of Trey Lance) and Sherfield's name showed up a lot in 11 on 11 recaps. Most of the buzz around Aiyuk came on scrimmage DB drills which I don't put a lot of stock into (late in the off-season)... then in the preseason Sherfield was the guy making plays while Aiyuk was dropping balls.

I ignored all of this because of Aiyuk's rookie season + 1st round draft capital + the torrential downpour of well respected film guys telling me that Aiyuk was a special player (eg; Matt Harmon).

.. Meanwhile Deebo was listed 1st on the depth chart and was a guy that was routinely making big plays in training camp; So much so that after leaving him for dead (and drafting Aiyuk in a few startups) I went out and overpayed for him in a few leagues -- to eventually stack with Lance.

Looking back on this.. the signs were all there that Aiyuk was being overvalued.

Hopefully it's just a maturity issue that gets ironed out with him because he is a talented player... but there is some truth to what Shanny said about Sherfield's off-season being a lot closer to Aiyuk than many people would expect.

I don't think these were signs he was over valued at all. These are all pretty solid reasons he was valued where he was. If he doesn't live up to the hoped outcome it would be an outlier to me rather than a "should have seen this coming"

Every rookie and young player has a chance of hitting or missing and afterwards we tend to say, "I should have seen this coming" or "I told you so" or whatever. But it's not perfect science. Those reasons for his value you mentioned are damned good reasons to value him highly. Don't beat yourself up if it doesn't work out. The one area we can never evaluate well is emotional/mental maturity and how a player handles the fame/spotlight/distractions/discipline/drive. Which is also why analyzing QBs is nearly impossible.

When the perception is that Aiyuk is a locked in WR2 with elite upside and is the clear cut WR1 on his team.. you'd expect him to be making plays in training camp at a higher clip than an UDFA WR. You'd also expect him to be listed 1st on the depth chart (like Justin Jefferson is with the Vikings).

You're correct that sometimes, busts just happen (if he does indeed bust).. but there's also a lot of factors that should've made people less confident that Aiyuk was the guy this off-season.

[FantasyFreak]

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/why-t ... ndon-aiyuk

[Bronco Billy]

There are stories coming out about Aiyuk’s immaturity and poor decision making on and off the field, as well as his disappointing the SF staff with his lack of professional dedication and effort to improve his game. He’s clearly in Shanahan’s doghouse, which is a place no 9er ever wants to be.

[jetsfan5757]

I'm not selling low and I'd be buying low if I didn't already own him.

Talent is there. Some proven production is there. He can fill a variety of roles.

I don't know how bad his hammy was and how much time it cost him, but whether it's health/reps or a wakeup call that was needed, my money is on him getting back on track.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

There are stories coming out about Aiyuk’s immaturity and poor decision making on and off the field, as well as his disappointing the SF staff with his lack of professional dedication and effort to improve his game. He’s clearly in Shanahan’s doghouse, which is a place no 9er ever wants to be.

I don't think we knew that all off season though. This is new information and valid and needs to be used to evaluate Aiyuk's value. I'm making the point that you shouldn't beat yourself up since this is all kind of new.

And if you had bailed on Chase because of offseason chatter you would be pretty disappointed at this moment in time.


Edit- Again, not saying ignore the new information coming out.

[Jigga94]

There are stories coming out about Aiyuk’s immaturity and poor decision making on and off the field, as well as his disappointing the SF staff with his lack of professional dedication and effort to improve his game. He’s clearly in Shanahan’s doghouse, which is a place no 9er ever wants to be.

I don't think we knew that all off season though. This is new information and valid and needs to be used to evaluate Aiyuk's value. I'm making the point that you shouldn't beat yourself up since this is all kind of new.

And if you had bailed on Chase because of offseason chatter you would be pretty disappointed at this moment in time.


Edit- Again, not saying ignore the new information coming out.

Good post. It could be a buy low. Or maybe this recent adjustment in value is where he should've been all along

[SteveMaddensShoes]

There are stories coming out about Aiyuk’s immaturity and poor decision making on and off the field, as well as his disappointing the SF staff with his lack of professional dedication and effort to improve his game. He’s clearly in Shanahan’s doghouse, which is a place no 9er ever wants to be.

I don't think we knew that all off season though. This is new information and valid and needs to be used to evaluate Aiyuk's value. I'm making the point that you shouldn't beat yourself up since this is all kind of new.

And if you had bailed on Chase because of offseason chatter you would be pretty disappointed at this moment in time.


Edit- Again, not saying ignore the new information coming out.

Good post. It could be a buy low. Or maybe this recent adjustment in value is where he should've been all along

My guess is that it's a better buy low than drop him drastically in your rankings. He was a beast last year with a back up QB and not much training camp. Practicing in full today. Hopefully Shanahan lit a fire under him.

Just don' t foget he has the ability and shown the skill set to be an alpha WR. How much do we drop for a possible maturity/motivation factor? He was going mid 1st? Maybe down to an Batemon or Elijah Moore prospect if you are really worried. I wouldn't go past that though. None of the rookies have shown anything. Now if you need him as a contender, I'd be trying to sell him for an older player for sure, Theilan+ or AB+ if you can pull it off. Maybe shoot for a Mike Evans even if you have to add a little piece.

[Bronco Billy]

There are stories coming out about Aiyuk’s immaturity and poor decision making on and off the field, as well as his disappointing the SF staff with his lack of professional dedication and effort to improve his game. He’s clearly in Shanahan’s doghouse, which is a place no 9er ever wants to be.

I don't think we knew that all off season though. This is new information and valid and needs to be used to evaluate Aiyuk's value. I'm making the point that you shouldn't beat yourself up since this is all kind of new.

And if you had bailed on Chase because of offseason chatter you would be pretty disappointed at this moment in time.


Edit- Again, not saying ignore the new information coming out.

Good points