Bo Nix

[JoshGordonsDealer]

Perhaps it’s just me, but I think he’s one of the more interesting prospects in this draft from a range of outcomes perspective.

I could see him being anywhere from a mid-1st to a 3rd round pick. I’m aware of some of the major red flags with Bo, but he does some things very well and I think an offense built around his athleticism and short accuracy could be excellent.

Any predictions? Thoughts?

[tstafford]

I've got the over/under set at 4.5 QBs in the first round. Which I suppose means I'm betting Nix isn't drafted in round one. If he isn't, my interest level is zero in 1QB and marginal in SF. Need the landing spot (of course) but I'm unlikely to take a day two QB w/ anything earlier than a mid-2nd. Right now I'd take Levis over Nix, Penix, JJM, etc.

[Bronco Billy]

When I watch college tape on QBs I’m always looking for traits that NFL Ds will exploit more than I’m focusing on strengths. The strengths speak for themselves pretty quickly.

I’m not sure how I feel about Nix’ future. He’s got some very NFL ready qualities. He’s very comfortable in the pocket and has that clock in his head as the pocket starts to break down. He’s definitely athletic enough that he can extend plays with his legs and while he’s a very capable runner he prefers to keep his eyes downfield waiting for an opportunity. He’s got a very quick release and while his arm isn’t a rocket launcher he can make all the throws. He manipulates secondaries with his eyes and can run full progressions. He can throw from different angles to fit passes around the rush. There’s a lot to like in his pluses that can lead to success at the next level.

I worry about his happy feet. The way he pittypats around in the pocket can end up with him on a poor platform when he throws. That can lead to some ugly looking passes. He is extraordinarily risk averse, and while that has him throwing very few picks it also has him hesitating to pull the trigger and reacting a hair late on his throws. That’s a weakness that NFL Ds will use to abuse him. That also seems to contribute to some struggles against man coverage and has him checking down an awful lot.

He looked absolutely awful the first 2 days of Senior Bowl practices before having a strong day 3 and then falling back to a mediocre game for him. I think that hurts his draft stock moving forward.

I see a lot of early years Alex Smith in his game and you can’t help but wonder whether he can progress like Smith did as his career moved forward. But that has me wondering if it might be better waiting on him in FF until he’s got a couple of years under his belt and then making a pitch for him, trading on the cheap if he doesn’t fall a ways in your FF draft.

[TheTroll]

When I watch college tape on QBs I’m always looking for traits that NFL Ds will exploit more than I’m focusing on strengths. The strengths speak for themselves pretty quickly.

I’m not sure how I feel about Nix’ future. He’s got some very NFL ready qualities. He’s very comfortable in the pocket and has that clock in his head as the pocket starts to break down. He’s definitely athletic enough that he can extend plays with his legs and while he’s a very capable runner he prefers to keep his eyes downfield waiting for an opportunity. He’s got a very quick release and while his arm isn’t a rocket launcher he can make all the throws. He manipulates secondaries with his eyes and can run full progressions. He can throw from different angles to fit passes around the rush. There’s a lot to like in his pluses that can lead to success at the next level.

I worry about his happy feet. The way he pittypats around in the pocket can end up with him on a poor platform when he throws. That can lead to some ugly looking passes. He is extraordinarily risk averse, and while that has him throwing very few picks it also has him hesitating to pull the trigger and reacting a hair late on his throws. That’s a weakness that NFL Ds will use to abuse him. That also seems to contribute to some struggles against man coverage and has him checking down an awful lot.

He looked absolutely awful the first 2 days of Senior Bowl practices before having a strong day 3 and then falling back to a mediocre game for him. I think that hurts his draft stock moving forward.

I see a lot of early years Alex Smith in his game and you can’t help but wonder whether he can progress like Smith did as his career moved forward. But that has me wondering if it might be better waiting on him in FF until he’s got a couple of years under his belt and then making a pitch for him, trading on the cheap if he doesn’t fall a ways in your FF draft.

Totally agree! Even the worst NFL team is way better than the best NCAA team which means the crap you get away with in college, won’t fly in the NFL.

[Cameron Giles]

If he's not a first rounder after five years in college and playing on one of the most talented teams in the country, then it will tell me a lot about how the league feels about him.

[Bronco Billy]

If he's not a first rounder after five years in college and playing on one of the most talented teams in the country, then it will tell me a lot about how the league feels about him.

Yeah, I get that mentality. But the league as a whole has made enough mistakes in the draft at what is the most important position to them that I can’t help but think with the collective football IQ there is on this board that we can’t hash through some of these guys and make at least as sound of judgment as NFL decision makers do. There are some damned savvy people here.

Their (the NFL) biggest blind spot that I’ve noticed is that they get so enthralled by potential that they can miss or willingly overlook some negatives, and conversely if they don’t see that massive upside that they put way too much emphasis on the negatives. We’re just playing a game while they’re in it for their livelihoods in competition with 31 other groups of pirañas, so we may not sell out completely for a position - positive or negative - on a player like they can do.

[MacDaddy123]

I've got the over/under set at 4.5 QBs in the first round. Which I suppose means I'm betting Nix isn't drafted in round one. If he isn't, my interest level is zero in 1QB and marginal in SF. Need the landing spot (of course) but I'm unlikely to take a day two QB w/ anything earlier than a mid-2nd. Right now I'd take Levis over Nix, Penix, JJM, etc.

Interesting take.
I have heard many rumors floating around about JJM being a top 15 pick in round 1.
If there is any truth to that, I can't put Levis ahead of him.

I'm hearing Nix and Penix will probably be day 2 draft capital.
I might throw a mid to late 2nd round pick at one of them in 12 team SF rookie drafts if the landing spot looks interesting, and depending on how the rest of my draft falls.

[tstafford]

I've got the over/under set at 4.5 QBs in the first round. Which I suppose means I'm betting Nix isn't drafted in round one. If he isn't, my interest level is zero in 1QB and marginal in SF. Need the landing spot (of course) but I'm unlikely to take a day two QB w/ anything earlier than a mid-2nd. Right now I'd take Levis over Nix, Penix, JJM, etc.

Interesting take.
I have heard many rumors floating around about JJM being a top 15 pick in round 1.
If there is any truth to that, I can't put Levis ahead of him.

I'm hearing Nix and Penix will probably be day 2 draft capital.
I might throw a mid to late 2nd round pick at one of them in 12 team SF rookie drafts if the landing spot looks interesting, and depending on how the rest of my draft falls.

I get your point and I'm fine if someone would rather have JJM. I'm on Levis for two reasons: 1) JJM hasn't been picked top-15 yet and it might not happen, 2) if he is picked top-15 my guess is he's a late first in most SF leagues and I think a late first is about the right price on Levis. I'm fine with adjusting this after the draft but for now this is where I'm at on Levis vs. the 2nd wave of rookies.

Full disclosure: in the only league where I rostered Levis, I traded him away a few weeks ago. So it's not like I'm super high on any of these guys.