2024 Free Agency

[mild]

Yeah. I've come around to thinking Dell takes the biggest ding. But it's not great for Nico either. One more very hungry mouth to feed. I don't think the pie grows enough to offset that. Still drafting Nico highest for '24 but I don't see WR1 upside any more. ~WR16 or so preseason IMO. Diggs slightly behind that and Dell now a high end WR3. This offense is loaded if Mixon still has anything left in the tank.

You're probably right that the yardage is close to maxed out for Stroud (he already hit 4100 yards in Year 1) but there will also be a serious condensing of the target tree in HOU - remember, Noah Brown had some enormous games down the stretch. That's all going to be funnelled to the big 3 now.

One thing that is definitely going to grow is the TD upside, however. Stroud only threw 23 TD's in Year 1 (I know, it feels like he threw way more...)

With this system, and these weapons? Honestly, he has the upside for a 30-35 TD season... and I don't think that's exaggerating.

[tstafford]

Yeah. I've come around to thinking Dell takes the biggest ding. But it's not great for Nico either. One more very hungry mouth to feed. I don't think the pie grows enough to offset that. Still drafting Nico highest for '24 but I don't see WR1 upside any more. ~WR16 or so preseason IMO. Diggs slightly behind that and Dell now a high end WR3. This offense is loaded if Mixon still has anything left in the tank.

You're probably right that the yardage is close to maxed out for Stroud (he already hit 4100 yards in Year 1) but there will also be a serious condensing of the target tree in HOU - remember, Noah Brown had some enormous games down the stretch. That's all going to be funnelled to the big 3 now.

One thing that is definitely going to grow is the TD upside, however. Stroud only threw 23 TD's in Year 1 (I know, it feels like he threw way more...)

With this system, and these weapons? Honestly, he has the upside for a 30-35 TD season... and I don't think that's exaggerating.

Agreed - also the Robert Woods production should get hoovered up by the big three. Like I said, I think all three are viable as weekly starters. Just not with quite the individual upside we'd hoped for.

[81-]

I'm hearing jk ran a 4.39 in a wind tunnel aided 30

[BabyChark23]

Devonta Smith and Eagles agree to 3yr $75M deal with $51M guaranteed.

Where do the Eagles keep finding all this money?

[murphysxm]

Devonta Smith and Eagles agree to 3yr $75M deal with $51M guaranteed.

Where do the Eagles keep finding all this money?

This is a lot of guarantee for Smith

[Jrblaha]

Devonta Smith and Eagles agree to 3yr $75M deal with $51M guaranteed.

Where do the Eagles keep finding all this money?

This is a lot of guarantee for Smith

It is. Seems like a better deal than the Ridley one though, and doing it before JJ, CD, etc probably saved them some money

[Ruggenater]

Devonta Smith and Eagles agree to 3yr $75M deal with $51M guaranteed.

Where do the Eagles keep finding all this money?

This is a lot of guarantee for Smith

I saw it and thought it was surprisingly cheap for him. Same average per year as AJ Brown and less than Tyreek’s $30M/yr, despite the cap having increased meaningfully since those two contracts were signed. Only $2M/yr more than the 4 years older Calvin Ridley (who got $47M guaranteed).

[Adam_172]

Yeah. I've come around to thinking Dell takes the biggest ding. But it's not great for Nico either. One more very hungry mouth to feed. I don't think the pie grows enough to offset that. Still drafting Nico highest for '24 but I don't see WR1 upside any more. ~WR16 or so preseason IMO. Diggs slightly behind that and Dell now a high end WR3. This offense is loaded if Mixon still has anything left in the tank.

You're probably right that the yardage is close to maxed out for Stroud (he already hit 4100 yards in Year 1) but there will also be a serious condensing of the target tree in HOU - remember, Noah Brown had some enormous games down the stretch. That's all going to be funnelled to the big 3 now.

One thing that is definitely going to grow is the TD upside, however. Stroud only threw 23 TD's in Year 1 (I know, it feels like he threw way more...)

With this system, and these weapons? Honestly, he has the upside for a 30-35 TD season... and I don't think that's exaggerating.

Agreed - also the Robert Woods production should get hoovered up by the big three. Like I said, I think all three are viable as weekly starters. Just not with quite the individual upside we'd hoped for.

I see a clone of 2023 GB in HOU, albeit with obviously better quality WR's.

It could be the 3 WR's (plus Schultz) all have boom weeks and become better options for best ball leagues rather than consistent 'normal' leagues.

Let's see but I think we'll all end up disappointed with the unpredictable weekly stat lines.

[tstafford]

Devonta Smith and Eagles agree to 3yr $75M deal with $51M guaranteed.

Where do the Eagles keep finding all this money?

This is a lot of guarantee for Smith

It is. Seems like a better deal than the Ridley one though, and doing it before JJ, CD, etc probably saved them some money

It ought to be a better deal than the Ridley one. Ridley was a UFA. Eagles had leverage.

[Jrblaha]

This is a lot of guarantee for Smith

It is. Seems like a better deal than the Ridley one though, and doing it before JJ, CD, etc probably saved them some money

It ought to be a better deal than the Ridley one. Ridley was a UFA. Eagles had leverage.

But smith is way younger and better than Ridley imo

[mild]

It is. Seems like a better deal than the Ridley one though, and doing it before JJ, CD, etc probably saved them some money

It ought to be a better deal than the Ridley one. Ridley was a UFA. Eagles had leverage.

But smith is way younger and better than Ridley imo

It's true - but as tstafford is saying, the Eagles were the only team he could negotiate with.

If he wanted to lock in millions this offseason, doing it with the Eagles and finding a common ground number was his only pathway.

They for sure did well here with the impending JJ / CD deals that are likely to blow through the roof of what we know of WR contract numbers.

[tstafford]

It ought to be a better deal than the Ridley one. Ridley was a UFA. Eagles had leverage.

But smith is way younger and better than Ridley imo

It's true - but as tstafford is saying, the Eagles were the only team he could negotiate with.

If he wanted to lock in millions this offseason, doing it with the Eagles and finding a common ground number was his only pathway.

They for sure did well here with the impending JJ / CD deals that are likely to blow through the roof of what we know of WR contract numbers.

Right.

FWIW - I'd argue that Smith did pretty well for himself. Probably only took a 10% haircut to lock in massive financial security at least a year (more likely two) ahead of time. This in a sport where serious injuries are a weekly occurrence.

Side note: The Titans overpaid for Ridley. But that's a different topic. . . .

[Jrblaha]

But smith is way younger and better than Ridley imo

It's true - but as tstafford is saying, the Eagles were the only team he could negotiate with.

If he wanted to lock in millions this offseason, doing it with the Eagles and finding a common ground number was his only pathway.

They for sure did well here with the impending JJ / CD deals that are likely to blow through the roof of what we know of WR contract numbers.

Right.

FWIW - I'd argue that Smith did pretty well for himself. Probably only took a 10% haircut to lock in massive financial security at least a year (more likely two) ahead of time. This in a sport where serious injuries are a weekly occurrence.

Side note: The Titans overpaid for Ridley. But that's a different topic. . . .

I get the leverage from the eagles but he didn’t have to sign an extension right now. Or at all.

I just would have expected a higher number for him.

If he just wanted to lock up injury security, or maybe he really likes playing the eagles, or hates contract negotiations, etc. there’s a lot of reasons for why it’d make sense for him to just sign this one. I personally think he could have gotten a lot more than 10% more (which even that’d be another $5 mill guaranteed). But now we’ll never know, and he obviously didn’t care enough to try harder to get more $ so he’s probably happy

[tstafford]

It's true - but as tstafford is saying, the Eagles were the only team he could negotiate with.

If he wanted to lock in millions this offseason, doing it with the Eagles and finding a common ground number was his only pathway.

They for sure did well here with the impending JJ / CD deals that are likely to blow through the roof of what we know of WR contract numbers.

Right.

FWIW - I'd argue that Smith did pretty well for himself. Probably only took a 10% haircut to lock in massive financial security at least a year (more likely two) ahead of time. This in a sport where serious injuries are a weekly occurrence.

Side note: The Titans overpaid for Ridley. But that's a different topic. . . .

I get the leverage from the eagles but he didn’t have to sign an extension right now. Or at all.

I just would have expected a higher number for him.

If he just wanted to lock up injury security, or maybe he really likes playing the eagles, or hates contract negotiations, etc. there’s a lot of reasons for why it’d make sense for him to just sign this one. I personally think he could have gotten a lot more than 10% more (which even that’d be another $5 mill guaranteed). But now we’ll never know, and he obviously didn’t care enough to try harder to get more $ so he’s probably happy

I agree with all you're saying. He for sure didn't have to do a deal now at all. But I can see being concerned about the injury risk and wanting to lock in the security. He gets security, Eagles get discount. And you're right, my 10% number is prob. light. But we'll never know.

[jordanzs]

JK (Just Kidding) Dobbins to the Chargers.