Least Risky RBs?

[tstafford]

Was just responding to a post in Team Advice about a trade involving James Cook. Reminded me to post this topic which has been on my mind the last couple of weeks.

A common POV in dynasty these days is to avoid trading for RBs at this time of year. The position seems to carry extra risk from FA and the Draft. However like all trends in FF, when the pendulum swings too far the contrarian play starts to make sense.

To that end, which RBs (and why) do we think are relatively safe bets and which do we see as particularly risky (and why)? Obviously that assessment could also be tied to the acquisition cost as well.

I'll start with a couple (not comprehensive) that pop to mind for me:

Safer Side:
High end:
Bijan/Gibbs/Hall - situations are set, they are young, this is the elite tier
JT - seems safe after signing a huge deal
Achane - although he has inherent risk (size/injury) I think his job is relatively safe. MIA might keep Mostert or get another Mostert but Achane is useful on 15 change of pace touches

Mid range:
Spears - same argument as Achane. Best case: he's the guy, Likely case: he's a change of pace but FF useful. Had a surprising 49 receptions on 67 targets as a rookie
Warren/Najee - you know what they are, the backfield is set, Tomlin is safe. Maybe they are meh, but you know what you're getting

Riskier Side:
Elite:
Kyren - there's a non-zero chance that the draft capital catches up with him. Is he Pacheco or Pierce? TBD, want to believe it's the former, but we don't know. The cost is really high right now given the risk

Mid-range:
Mixon - is it possible that Mixon is the next D.Cook or Fournette? That was an incredible FF RB class but it's nearly closing time. I'm not buying Mixon right now

[TheTroll]

Just look to Allgeier and the surprise pick of Bijan. Your list is great and spot on but the curveballs (or even knuckleballs) are yet to come. It’s always a fun ride like Roulette…. Sometimes you are holding the winner and sometimes it’s taken away from you. The reality of how the NFL teams view the position, dictates a high and low tide. I have always just tried to stockpile as many 2nd and 3rd strings as possible to see who hits.

This is a great string Staf. I’m sure the amount of posts will be close to equal to the various opinions.

[Two Cents]

I tend to swing for the fences in this regard. By that I mean digging deep for low investment big dividend players. I would love to hoard the RB's below

Zack Moss
Antonio Gibson (I have high hopes for him landing in GB)
Devin Singletary
Zamir White
AJ Dillon
Chase Brown

Most of the players in the original post are risks because of the price tag. Thats not the risk game I would want to play, unless Im giving up someone that I believe Im selling high on. I would rather the price tag be low, and the payout high, than the payout mid-range to high with minimal upside. Kyren might be the exception only because people might think of him as a fluke. But even then I don't believe people would sell him at a discount.

[FantasyFreak]

Achane is a massive sell for me. Super risky. I don't see how the Dolphins don't add a RB to that roster. Tua is on a rookie deal. FA has a lot of good backs. I don't see him as safe at all. With how injury laden that RB room was, and Moster being in his 30's, I don't see how they don't add a quality back.

[FantasyFreak]

Just look to Allgeier and the surprise pick of Bijan. Your list is great and spot on but the curveballs (or even knuckleballs) are yet to come. It’s always a fun ride like Roulette…. Sometimes you are holding the winner and sometimes it’s taken away from you. The reality of how the NFL teams view the position, dictates a high and low tide. I have always just tried to stockpile as many 2nd and 3rd strings as possible to see who hits.

This is a great string Staf. I’m sure the amount of posts will be close to equal to the various opinions.

It wasn't a surprise pick. It was the predictable pick. A ton of people expected the Falcons to take him at 8. It didn't surprise many people.

There isn't a RB close to him in this draft, either. One of the worst RB classes in recent memory. FA is the risk this year, not the draft.

[BabyChark23]

Barkley and Josh Jacobs seem pretty safe, if you can get them at a good price. They should be bell cows wherever they end up.

[CGW]

This free agent class is crazy. If you haven't taken a look...

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents ... ding-pages

[81-]

I tend to swing for the fences in this regard. By that I mean digging deep for low investment big dividend players. I would love to hoard the RB's below

Zack Moss
Antonio Gibson (I have high hopes for him landing in GB)
Devin Singletary
Zamir White
AJ Dillon
Chase Brown

Most of the players in the original post are risks because of the price tag. Thats not the risk game I would want to play, unless Im giving up someone that I believe Im selling high on. I would rather the price tag be low, and the payout high, than the payout mid-range to high with minimal upside. Kyren might be the exception only because people might think of him as a fluke. But even then I don't believe people would sell him at a discount.

Yes to white and brown. The rest put me to sleep

[tstafford]

Barkley and Josh Jacobs seem pretty safe, if you can get them at a good price. They should be bell cows wherever they end up.

As a Barkley manager on a serious contender, I hope you're right. I'd be fine with high end RB2 results. I'm a tad worried.

[Bronco Billy]

Achane has already missed 35% of possible games played and he’s considered safe? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a FF force when healthy, but he’s hardly someone to be considered to be safe so far. He might be an asset to try to wring top value out of right now in a trade if there is a concern that he’ll miss games in a similar manner moving forward. I’m on board with FF’s position.

[BabyChark23]

Barkley and Josh Jacobs seem pretty safe, if you can get them at a good price. They should be bell cows wherever they end up.

As a Barkley manager on a serious contender, I hope you're right. I'd be fine with high end RB2 results. I'm a tad worried.

What kind of return would tempt you if someone made an offer for him? I’ve considered buying in a few of my leagues.

[tstafford]

Barkley and Josh Jacobs seem pretty safe, if you can get them at a good price. They should be bell cows wherever they end up.

As a Barkley manager on a serious contender, I hope you're right. I'd be fine with high end RB2 results. I'm a tad worried.

What kind of return would tempt you if someone made an offer for him? I’ve considered buying in a few of my leagues.

He's on my SC team which makes it kind of complicated. His contract is ($34, 2) against a $250 cap. This makes him valuable in a way because all of that cash frees up in '26 (and he can be cut for a 20% penalty). Since I'm a contender it doesn't make sense to sell him. I'm better off just seeing what kind of production I can get out of him and recovering the cash whenever I want.

[tstafford]

Achane has already missed 35% of possible games played and he’s considered safe? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a FF force when healthy, but he’s hardly someone to be considered to be safe so far. He might be an asset to try to wring top value out of right now in a trade if there is a concern that he’ll miss games in a similar manner moving forward. I’m on board with FF’s position.

Impossible to ignore that. I was referring to his risk of losing his job to competition and I think he's fairly safe on that. I think he's useful for FF if he's in a change of pace role. But maybe he can't even hold up for that.

[TheTroll]

Just look to Allgeier and the surprise pick of Bijan. Your list is great and spot on but the curveballs (or even knuckleballs) are yet to come. It’s always a fun ride like Roulette…. Sometimes you are holding the winner and sometimes it’s taken away from you. The reality of how the NFL teams view the position, dictates a high and low tide. I have always just tried to stockpile as many 2nd and 3rd strings as possible to see who hits.

This is a great string Staf. I’m sure the amount of posts will be close to equal to the various opinions.

It wasn't a surprise pick. It was the predictable pick. A ton of people expected the Falcons to take him at 8. It didn't surprise many people.

There isn't a RB close to him in this draft, either. One of the worst RB classes in recent memory. FA is the risk this year, not the draft.

FF let me clarify, yes there were rumors of Bijan getting selected by ATL, however Allgeier didn’t do anything wrong to effectively lose his role from his 2022 performance. The point is that the position is unpredictable and change happens faster there than anywhere else.

90% of my friends are ATL fans and they were pissed that ATL picked Bijan so early when they already had Allgeier.

[Bronco Billy]

Just look to Allgeier and the surprise pick of Bijan. Your list is great and spot on but the curveballs (or even knuckleballs) are yet to come. It’s always a fun ride like Roulette…. Sometimes you are holding the winner and sometimes it’s taken away from you. The reality of how the NFL teams view the position, dictates a high and low tide. I have always just tried to stockpile as many 2nd and 3rd strings as possible to see who hits.

This is a great string Staf. I’m sure the amount of posts will be close to equal to the various opinions.

It wasn't a surprise pick. It was the predictable pick. A ton of people expected the Falcons to take him at 8. It didn't surprise many people.

There isn't a RB close to him in this draft, either. One of the worst RB classes in recent memory. FA is the risk this year, not the draft.

FF let me clarify, yes there were rumors of Bijan getting selected by ATL, however Allgeier didn’t do anything wrong to effectively lose his role from his 2022 performance. The point is that the position is unpredictable and change happens faster there than anywhere else.

90% of my friends are ATL fans and they were pissed that ATL picked Bijan so early when they already had Allgeier.

Why were they pissed? ATL was getting (and has) a very dynamic asset that can completely change the way a D has to defend and can make the O so much more agile and deceptive. The biggest problem I saw in ATL was a severe mismatch between the vision of the GM and the philosophy/capability of the HC.

It was painfully clear early on that Smith had no clue how to utilize an asset like Bijan. He tried to run him between the tackles too much (Bijan’s biggest weakness) and didn’t get him the ball in space, especially in the intermediate level of the field (Bijan’s greatest strength) nearly enough. Even when Smith tried to run Bijan outside it was at high speed instead of stretch concepts, where Bijan was hitting the outside lane at speed instead of being able to wait for his seam and then running to daylight to use his open field skills into the second level.

On the other hand, Allgeier is the hammer that Smith loves, getting upfield as quickly as possible and not worrying about 2nd and 3rd level scheming much. And true to Smith’s nature (and assisting the opponent’s D scheming) even though Allgeier got a lot fewer snaps - fewer than half as many as Bijan - he got nearly as many carries despite being significantly less productive with his carries.

Smith had an offense in TEN that fit his limited mentality perfectly. Give Henry the ball 300+ times, slam him into the D, and let Henry and his extraordinary skills do the rest. Let Henry force the SS into the box and force the DBs to take a first look into the backfield which allowed the passing game to function. Allgeier is solid as a hammer but he ain’t Henry and Smith had no clue how to properly use the tools he was given in ATL.

Fontenot was pretty clearly drafting pieces that would make ATL very flexible and dynamic on O - which would be assisted by a QB who was limited as a passer but might be better in a more dynamic scheme - while Smith was extraordinarily limited in his imagination and scheming. Allgeier and Bijan should have complimented each other and allowed Smith to do a lot of variable things, including getting both guys on the field at the same time, and turning up the pressure on the D. That in turn would have made Ridder more effective and would have given him easier throws to make.

Drafting Bijan into that offense showed some great insight by Fontenot IMO. His problem was having such a mismatch of a HC running the show, and I’m guessing Blank had a lot of say in perpetuating that mismatch.