Divisional Round Thread

[FantasyFreak]

I've been out on McDermott since they blew the game in KC a few years back. Allen is a top tier talent, but IMO, his best football was played under Daboll. I know Daboll did a great job with DJ for a year before DJ got extended, and screwed everybody in that organization, including Daboll, with that contract, but Daboll as HC is still my wish for that franchise. I think Allen would have been better off.

I heard this conversation recently on a podcast, and I have had the same thought for a while. A good offensive HC will always be better than a good Defensive one, if you have a franchise QB. The reason being, they are paired together for the duration of that QB's prime. While the OC may change, the driving offensive mind coupled with that QB remains the same. At least in this era, it matters. Some guys like Manning or Brady who are all timers, had some fluctuation, but even Tom was with Josh for a large part of it.

Mahomes/Reid, Montana/Walsh, Brees/Payton etc etc.

It's always more desirable to have a long term coach that's offensive, with a franchise caliber QB. Or else the OC keeps flipping, as they get gigs elsewhere as they elevate an offense. The Lions will be hard pressed to replace Ben Johnson.

At some point, if Stroud keeps balling, that OC will get a HC gig, and he'll lose his guy. That won't happen with Jordan Love, if Love keeps balling, as a contrast. Not saying Ryans wasn't a good hire, he was. Just that the tie breaker for a quality QB is definitely an offensive HC, as the system remains in place, and that duo of QB/HC does.

It's more desirable. Someetimes we find out the real talent behind an offensive HC may be the OC, too. Steichen looks like he may be that case. The Eagles weren't the same without him, and he elevated the Colts this year.

I think the Bills are "cursed" in the sense that they stuck with the known, that wasn't likely to get them over the hump, in McDermott, rather than making the tough decision and keeping Daboll with Allen, which would have been the most important thing to keep, IMO.

I still think the bold move to compete in the AFC for the next 5-10 years would have been to pair the guy that seemed to get the best out of Josh, but hey, the shoulda woulda coulda, is a part of sports. I have just been consistent in this thought process from the time they decided to let Daboll walk.

Who know's how it would have worked out?

The Bills just seem like a team destined to be in this limbo of good, but not good enough.

[mild]

I guess the fake punt wasn't necessarily a planned play, they just ran it when realizing that KC only had 10 men on the field. Still, yes, it was not a well executed play. You could tell from the moment Hamlin took the snap that it was doomed to fail.

And I absolutely agree with regard to the field goal attempt at the end of the game. McDermott has usually been a 4th down gambler, and yet in that position he wilts and attempts a field goal in a windy stadium that would have merely tied the game leaving Mahomes and Co. plenty of time for a drive of their own? Just doesn't add up.

With Buffalo's defense as banged-up as it was from the outset, you'd think the coach wouldn't choose to lean on them down the stretch when the game was on the line. But that's exactly what he was doing by attempting that field goal instead of trying to convert on 4th down. Granted, he'd get second guessed either way if the team failed. But if you want to leave the outcome to your best players, that's not trotting out Tyler Bass in that situation.

Absolutely bang on there, felt exactly the same way. They would have lost in even more heart-breaking (but perhaps more normal) circumstances to a Patrick Mahomes winning drive ending in a FG. The Chiefs Offense were averaging 9 yards a play at one point of this game (it came down to a mere 7.7 by the end)

With the fake punt, my main gripe with it was that it was a running play on 4th and 5. (And on their own 30 to boot)

It was like a play you run when you're tilted on Madden or some sh--. Just not smart football. I would have preferred something where you try a 5 yard pass at least, rather than trying to pick it up on the ground. Not even a well designed rushing play is guaranteed 5 yards on a "got to have it" down, there's simply too many bodies in the way - let alone if you're trying it with a 4th string CB.

And more to the point, I would have MUCH rathered trying to get 5 yards with the ball in Josh Allen's hands in that situation.

[mild]

Bad take on blaming the kicker. Can't blame this game on the GB kicker. Can't give the QBs a pass on weather and not the Kickers. Both teams had a missed FG opportunity. GB made the decision to go with young players and develop them, they drafted this kicker and will develop him too. GB was not about having 1 year rental type players.

The kicker has been a problem all year. It's not ONE play that cost the game, but it was a huge miss. Gronk felt it was when they started to implode. It was a huge miss, from a distance that should be near automatic.

Freak is right on this one. The Packers sticking with this guy wasn't a truly competitive decision. It cost them.

He had at least one miss in 10 of the last 12 games.

To quote Nate Tice when talking about this exact thing in the game preview two weeks ago: "enough from the clown"

[Anteaters]

Diggs
is
done
.

[Jigga94]

Buffalo feels a bit like Indy with Peyton. Puts up numbers, great in regular season and constantly getting bested in the playoffs by a superior QB.

[BabyChark23]

Yes

I don't know anybody who is a Bills fan. I'm sure they're out there somewhere in the country. I would hate to be one though. As if the 4 superbowl losses in a row back in the early 90's wasn't enough, now they have this.

And don't forget "13 seconds" as well.

I feel awful for their fans. That's as heartbreaking as it gets.

I also hated the fake punt design AND the field goal attempt that at best would have tied it and given the ball back to Mahomes. I feel like McDermott needs to be sentenced to another offseason of grinding the Madden ladder...

If I'm going down with the ship by trying to win, I'm making sure the ball is in the hands of my best player on every big down.

And I'm not trying to frickin' tie the game against Patrick Mahomes + timeouts + 90 seconds left. Sheesh.

I guess the fake punt wasn't necessarily a planned play, they just ran it when realizing that KC only had 10 men on the field. Still, yes, it was not a well executed play. You could tell from the moment Hamlin took the snap that it was doomed to fail.

And I absolutely agree with regard to the field goal attempt at the end of the game. McDermott has usually been a 4th down gambler, and yet in that position he wilts and attempts a field goal in a windy stadium that would have merely tied the game leaving Mahomes and Co. plenty of time for a drive of their own? Just doesn't add up.

With Buffalo's defense as banged-up as it was from the outset, you'd think the coach wouldn't choose to lean on them down the stretch when the game was on the line. But that's exactly what he was doing by attempting that field goal instead of trying to convert on 4th down. Granted, he'd get second guessed either way if the team failed. But if you want to leave the outcome to your best players, that's not trotting out Tyler Bass in that situation.

We can talk about Bass, but Josh Allen put them in the situation where they had to decide whether to go for it on fourth down or go for 3. He had open receivers on 2nd and 3rd down, but he wanted to get the TD in one play instead of picking up the first down and working methodically down the field. Plenty of blame to go around. Personally, I don’t think the decision to go for 3 there was a significant part of the problem.

[remedy29]

Now we want the Bills to go for it on 4th and 9 vs attempting the FG? Wow, McDermott would not have made it out of the stadium alive if he did that.

The Bills were banged up on defense and the only stopped KC once from scoring one punt and fumble out of bounds. The Bills were overmatched and lucky to be in the position to tie the game. Sure, the fake punt didn't work, but the decision to steal a possession from KC was not a bad Head Coach decision. And why leave it to Josh Allen to pick up, on 4th down and long, 5 yards on the fake punt play amd 9 yards at the end, I would not trust Josh Allen to pick it up. He is a great talent, not a great QB. KC would have clamped down, ensure Josh Allen doesn't run for the 1st and I wouldn't trust Josh Allen and the Bills to convert a pass play in a gotta have situation.

[remedy29]

4th and 9 has a 29.6% chance of converting since 2013;

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... majxqkfipp

Now, maybe you can criticize the Bills for not having a better than a 4th and 9 situation, two down field pass incompletes on that possession, but you cant criticize the 4th and 9 FG decision.

[Bronco Billy]

Do we really need statistical confirmation (in a generic environment no less) that going for it on 4th & 9 is a terrible decision unless there is no other realistic alternative?

[Cameron Giles]

Kicking was the right call. bleep just happens in Buffalo.

[frerichs5]

4th and 9 has a 29.6% chance of converting since 2013;

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... majxqkfipp

Now, maybe you can criticize the Bills for not having a better than a 4th and 9 situation, two down field pass incompletes on that possession, but you cant criticize the 4th and 9 FG decision.

Not arguing for or against the decision, but I certainly understand those questioning it (which I’m sure is mostly hindsight).

Yes, 4th and 9 is low probability. But is it lower probability than making the field goal AND stopping KC with 1:40 and two timeouts? Which they hadn’t done all night as you said earlier. I don’t know.

[Bronco Billy]

4th and 9 has a 29.6% chance of converting since 2013;

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... majxqkfipp

Now, maybe you can criticize the Bills for not having a better than a 4th and 9 situation, two down field pass incompletes on that possession, but you cant criticize the 4th and 9 FG decision.

Not arguing for or against the decision, but I certainly understand those questioning it (which I’m sure is mostly hindsight).

Yes, 4th and 9 is low probability. But is it lower probability than making the field goal AND stopping KC with 1:40 and two timeouts? Which they hadn’t done all night as you said earlier. I don’t know.

If a team is scheming with an expectation of failure, then they deserve to lose. Those kinds of decisions were already in place when they decided to throw on 2nd and 3rd down and trying to take the lead instead of going for the tie at that time.

Some of this 20/20 hindsight and Monday morning HCing is getting pretty farfetched to the point that it’s advocating idiocy.

[Paul717]

Gotta imagine the majority of the country will be rooting for Detroit next week. Nice to see that franchise have some success!

I heard it from "sources" they are beating the Chiefs in the SB, because it's rigged. Cat got let out of the bag.

Honestly though, I think they have a real shot, but Goff needs to play well, and get some protection.

With how the Bucs literally just gave up….I could almost believe it. Lions screw up kneeing the ball. Didn’t let time run down on 2nd down. How they don’t call a timeout with 35 seconds left after the 3rd down kneel? Make them try a field goal…maybe they miss and you still have a chance. Who knows. Weird to not even try…

x2 !! Why isn't that ^ being talking about more? Was there an explanation provided after the game? Am I missing something super obvious here? (E.G. was the time on screen incorrect? Those numbers did seem to move around a lot...felt at time like this was their first time covering an NFL game, it was that amateur-ish). Etiquette or not...why not at least try?

[jhhdynasty]

I've been out on McDermott since they blew the game in KC a few years back. Allen is a top tier talent, but IMO, his best football was played under Daboll. I know Daboll did a great job with DJ for a year before DJ got extended, and screwed everybody in that organization, including Daboll, with that contract, but Daboll as HC is still my wish for that franchise. I think Allen would have been better off.

I heard this conversation recently on a podcast, and I have had the same thought for a while. A good offensive HC will always be better than a good Defensive one, if you have a franchise QB. The reason being, they are paired together for the duration of that QB's prime. While the OC may change, the driving offensive mind coupled with that QB remains the same. At least in this era, it matters. Some guys like Manning or Brady who are all timers, had some fluctuation, but even Tom was with Josh for a large part of it.

Mahomes/Reid, Montana/Walsh, Brees/Payton etc etc.

It's always more desirable to have a long term coach that's offensive, with a franchise caliber QB. Or else the OC keeps flipping, as they get gigs elsewhere as they elevate an offense. The Lions will be hard pressed to replace Ben Johnson.

At some point, if Stroud keeps balling, that OC will get a HC gig, and he'll lose his guy. That won't happen with Jordan Love, if Love keeps balling, as a contrast. Not saying Ryans wasn't a good hire, he was. Just that the tie breaker for a quality QB is definitely an offensive HC, as the system remains in place, and that duo of QB/HC does.

It's more desirable. Someetimes we find out the real talent behind an offensive HC may be the OC, too. Steichen looks like he may be that case. The Eagles weren't the same without him, and he elevated the Colts this year.

I think the Bills are "cursed" in the sense that they stuck with the known, that wasn't likely to get them over the hump, in McDermott, rather than making the tough decision and keeping Daboll with Allen, which would have been the most important thing to keep, IMO.

I still think the bold move to compete in the AFC for the next 5-10 years would have been to pair the guy that seemed to get the best out of Josh, but hey, the shoulda woulda coulda, is a part of sports. I have just been consistent in this thought process from the time they decided to let Daboll walk.

Who know's how it would have worked out?

The Bills just seem like a team destined to be in this limbo of good, but not good enough.

As a Bills fan I absolutely hated reading this post while at the same agreeing with it entirely.

[remedy29]

I heard it from "sources" they are beating the Chiefs in the SB, because it's rigged. Cat got let out of the bag.

Honestly though, I think they have a real shot, but Goff needs to play well, and get some protection.

With how the Bucs literally just gave up….I could almost believe it. Lions screw up kneeing the ball. Didn’t let time run down on 2nd down. How they don’t call a timeout with 35 seconds left after the 3rd down kneel? Make them try a field goal…maybe they miss and you still have a chance. Who knows. Weird to not even try…

x2 !! Why isn't that ^ being talking about more? Was there an explanation provided after the game? Am I missing something super obvious here? (E.G. was the time on screen incorrect? Those numbers did seem to move around a lot...felt at time like this was their first time covering an NFL game, it was that amateur-ish). Etiquette or not...why not at least try?

Honestly, Bowles should be fired over it. Detroit screwed up just as bad by not taking the time down all the way, not sure if that was on Campbell or Goff. But 30+ seconds were left on the clock in a 1 score game and TB ate their timeout. At that point, if I were Todd Bowles, I would beg Detroit to attempt a FG, that their kicker in no way was prepared for. Tampa Bay had a decent chance, at least 20% of getting the ball down 1 score with 25 seconds to go near the 40 yard line. And if Detroit punted, maybe TB blocks it, bad snap, or get the ball at the 25 with 25 seconds down 1 score. Either way, plenty of time to complete a pass in play for chunk yardage and then have 1 or 2 attempts at a Hail Mary to the end zone.

Bowles explanation was even worse than his awful coaching. He said he would have had 12 seconds left, which is probably what his coaches told him was the amount of time he would have left if he took the timeout. Which, in by itself you take the time out to get the ball back with 12 seconds. But that is not what happened at all, Detroit, snapped the ball quickly, twice, which would have given TB the ball with around 30 seconds.

Awful coaching, inexcusable. Shows how clueless he is. He looks, talks and acts clueless, so it should not be a surprise. Not to mention Bowles coaching as if he had the leagues best defense, he was too conservative during that game.