Black Monday 2024 & Offseason Coaching Changes

[yinzername]

I was already in the “sell JSN now” camp, which is honestly only about three tents and a cooler full
of a few White Claws in lukewarm water, lol. This doesn’t change that for me tho. I’m ready to bust out a bottle of bourbon, stoke the fire, and wait for my friends to come up the trail

Taking him with a 1st round pick I'm holding for quite a while.

Seems like you still don’t understand the concept of the sunk cost fallacy.

My thought too

[mild]

This Grubb/DeBoer offense was really well designed, and really cemented Penix on the map as a possible Day 1 pick this year. Grubb worked with him personally as the QB's coach, too - there is always chance that out of the DeBoer/Grubb pairing, that Grubb's contributions were as significant - maybe even more-so. (Not likely, but it also wouldn't be the first time.) I'm excited for JSN for sure, and I think DK owners should be pretty jazzed too.

The Huskies ran a pass-first, aggressive offense - there is a lot of stuff on film (if you've been scouting Penix/Odunze) where it's aggressive downfield shots, and then there's a massive component of the offense that is "horizontal raid" (ie. screens and quick-game focussed - helloooo JSN)

Whilst we should always be rightly sceptical of a first-time OC making the jump from College - I will gently argue the case for Grubb and general offensive excitement here:

- the best Defensive Mind in the NFL last season (Mike McDonald) just looked at all the options available to him at OC, and picked this one.
- ergo, Mike McDonald has evaluated the Huskies scheme, and believes that there is enough sound scheme there that it will make the leap at the Pro level.
- if there's ever a case for iron sharpening iron, this is a good one - MM will quickly destroy anything that's not ready for the Pros in Practice, and likewise, he will be able to tell Grubb how he's wanting these modern defenses to be attacked. I think it could be a really good partnership.

He might be wrong, the Seahawks might be wrong. That's always a risk. But REALLY sharp Defensive Minds - especially ones responsible for slowing down some of the most "in vogue" offenses right now - have a really good handle on what will work, and what won't. If he's liked what he's seen on Grubb's film, then I think that bodes very well for the choice.

Remember - MM is only 1 year removed from College / Michigan. He has his ear to the ground here - if he says Grubb is the guy, then I'm inclined to believe him.

[Bronco Billy]

You're not wrong BB. I'm taking heads, sounds like you're leaning tails. We'll just have to wait and see how the coin flips. Admittedly, I'm a homer!

Well, if Geno ends up staying there I hope he does two things (or rather his GM does one and then he does the other) is first bolstering their O line by more than just a little and then secondly that he limits Geno’s pass attempts per game and leans more on the running game, especially as he gets his legs under him and he learns just how sophisticated and fast NFL Ds are. He hasn’t seen anything close to even mediocre NFL Ds yet and Geno seems to be more effective when he’s not throwing a bunch and his running game is setting up his pass game.

I don't think Geno is a QB you hide.

He's a lot better than people give him credit for. Maybe a notch below the Dak, Kirk Cousins tier.

Very capable of running a high volume offense if need be. Just needs the SEA O-line to not get ravaged by injuries.

Geno when he throws between 25-34 pass attempts per game vs when he throws 35 pass attempts or more:

31.4% more completions in 32.6% more attempts, There’s a reduction of 0.91% in his completion pct when he throws more.

26.6% higher ypg, which is lower than the increased attempts that results in a 4.54% reduction in his ypa when he throws more.

His TD rate increases by 43.8% when he throws more but his INT rate increases by 60.2%. His TD/INT ratio drops 10.2% when he throws more.

Pretty sure that’s indicative of his being less effective when he throws more.

[wickerkat1212]

Taking him with a 1st round pick I'm holding for quite a while.

Seems like you still don’t understand the concept of the sunk cost fallacy.

My thought too

There's also the "sell low" concept. All I was saying is I'm not moving him based on one year. I try to give high draft picks three years. I don't see the point in moving him when he's had ONE year, and a year where two very good WRs are in front of him. When Locket goes, hie'll move up. There's "sunk cost fallacy" and there's giving a player time to develop, as well as his current situation.

I'm happy to trade or move on from guys that I took in the 3rd or 4th. I follow the WR thread here, so I'm trying not to keep the roster cloggers. I think JSN is special.

[81-]

Well, if Geno ends up staying there I hope he does two things (or rather his GM does one and then he does the other) is first bolstering their O line by more than just a little and then secondly that he limits Geno’s pass attempts per game and leans more on the running game, especially as he gets his legs under him and he learns just how sophisticated and fast NFL Ds are. He hasn’t seen anything close to even mediocre NFL Ds yet and Geno seems to be more effective when he’s not throwing a bunch and his running game is setting up his pass game.

I don't think Geno is a QB you hide.

He's a lot better than people give him credit for. Maybe a notch below the Dak, Kirk Cousins tier.

Very capable of running a high volume offense if need be. Just needs the SEA O-line to not get ravaged by injuries.

Geno when he throws between 25-34 pass attempts per game vs when he throws 35 pass attempts or more:

31.4% more completions in 32.6% more attempts, There’s a reduction of 0.91% in his completion pct when he throws more.

26.6% higher ypg, which is lower than the increased attempts that results in a 4.54% reduction in his ypa when he throws more.

His TD rate increases by 43.8% when he throws more but his INT rate increases by 60.2%. His TD/INT ratio drops 10.2% when he throws more.

Pretty sure that’s indicative of his being less effective when he throws more.

Sounds like one scenario, the team is in the game or leading. The other they are in come back mode.
I could be wrong. Would have to look at the individual games .

[Bronco Billy]

I don't think Geno is a QB you hide.

He's a lot better than people give him credit for. Maybe a notch below the Dak, Kirk Cousins tier.

Very capable of running a high volume offense if need be. Just needs the SEA O-line to not get ravaged by injuries.

Geno when he throws between 25-34 pass attempts per game vs when he throws 35 pass attempts or more:

31.4% more completions in 32.6% more attempts, There’s a reduction of 0.91% in his completion pct when he throws more.

26.6% higher ypg, which is lower than the increased attempts that results in a 4.54% reduction in his ypa when he throws more.

His TD rate increases by 43.8% when he throws more but his INT rate increases by 60.2%. His TD/INT ratio drops 10.2% when he throws more.

Pretty sure that’s indicative of his being less effective when he throws more.

Sounds like one scenario, the team is in the game or leading. The other they are in come back mode.
I could be wrong. Would have to look at the individual games .

That’s why I looked at rates rather than just raw numbers. FWIW, in both the lesser and greater attempts Smith had 3 more losses than wins.

[Sriracha]

Geno when he throws between 25-34 pass attempts per game vs when he throws 35 pass attempts or more:

31.4% more completions in 32.6% more attempts, There’s a reduction of 0.91% in his completion pct when he throws more.

26.6% higher ypg, which is lower than the increased attempts that results in a 4.54% reduction in his ypa when he throws more.

His TD rate increases by 43.8% when he throws more but his INT rate increases by 60.2%. His TD/INT ratio drops 10.2% when he throws more.

Pretty sure that’s indicative of his being less effective when he throws more.

Sounds like one scenario, the team is in the game or leading. The other they are in come back mode.
I could be wrong. Would have to look at the individual games .

That’s why I looked at rates rather than just raw numbers. FWIW, in both the lesser and greater attempts Smith had 3 more losses than wins.

The problem with this that it's very possible they threw more because they were losing.. and typically you're losing because your offense is being inefficient; Compounding the problem.

Either way, it's a muddied correlation at best and far from significant evidence that he's less efficient because he was asked to throw more.

All I know is he's a very decisive decision maker with enough arm talent to make all the throws and mobility to extend plays. Even if he wasn't as productive as last year he more or less looked like the same player when he wasn't gutting through an injury or running for his life in the pocket.

He's a sneaky old player at 33 years old so hard to tell when he will start to physically fall off but he's much better than the average fan gives him credit for and has all the tools to be a successful NFL QB for the immediate future.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Seems like you still don’t understand the concept of the sunk cost fallacy.

My thought too

There's also the "sell low" concept. All I was saying is I'm not moving him based on one year. I try to give high draft picks three years. I don't see the point in moving him when he's had ONE year, and a year where two very good WRs are in front of him. When Locket goes, hie'll move up. There's "sunk cost fallacy" and there's giving a player time to develop, as well as his current situation.

I'm happy to trade or move on from guys that I took in the 3rd or 4th. I follow the WR thread here, so I'm trying not to keep the roster cloggers. I think JSN is special.

On year 3 then everyone has their same conclusion and you're potentially stuck with nothing. Use intuition and jettison the goods when you can. As been repeated over and over and over again...no one is saying sell for peanuts. You might get a believer that might send a 1st. More likely recoup a 2nd. Hold for a 3rd if you want. But any of those picks will be more valuable than when you have to cut dead weight in 3 years.

[Shoreline Steamers]

My thought too

There's also the "sell low" concept. All I was saying is I'm not moving him based on one year. I try to give high draft picks three years. I don't see the point in moving him when he's had ONE year, and a year where two very good WRs are in front of him. When Locket goes, hie'll move up. There's "sunk cost fallacy" and there's giving a player time to develop, as well as his current situation.

I'm happy to trade or move on from guys that I took in the 3rd or 4th. I follow the WR thread here, so I'm trying not to keep the roster cloggers. I think JSN is special.

On year 3 then everyone has their same conclusion and you're potentially stuck with nothing. Use intuition and jettison the goods when you can. As been repeated over and over and over again...no one is saying sell for peanuts. You might get a believer that might send a 1st. More likely recoup a 2nd. Hold for a 3rd if you want. But any of those picks will be more valuable than when you have to cut dead weight in 3 years.

The above thoughts are relevant, and certainly apply to all players.

In JSN's particular case though, selling this offseason (unless you can recoup enough draft capital to take a re-roll on a similarly valued WR prospect from the 2024 class) feels a touch too soon for me personally. I don't have him rostered anywhere, but I'd be very interested to see how he's utilized and what kind of numbers he can put up in the coming season.

He's going to be playing in a completely new system, with different offensive philosophy, looking to unseat a veteran WR who is clearly past his prime in Lockett. I would expect his stats to look materially different in 2024 versus 2023. While true that he could disappoint, it's also possible that he improves on his rookie season and begins to look more like the player many evaluated him to be coming into the league.

If you could get into the Odunze tier by trading him, I'd consider that a respectable return to move in a different direction. Much less than that and I'd probably hold to see what he looks like in his sophomore season.

[Menace2010]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

[wickerkat1212]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

Right on.

[BabyChark23]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

Right on.

I agree that a 2nd is crazy low. KTC has him equal to 1.08. That feels like it’s in the right ballpark.

[mild]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

Right on.

I agree that a 2nd is crazy low. KTC has him equal to 1.08. That feels like it’s in the right ballpark.

That does seem about right given that 1.07 (in SF) is where you might be getting Odunze or Bowers (at this point in the process)

If I could re-roll for one of the big 3 WR's this year, I'd definitely at least think about it.

[yinzername]

I'm riding the JSN train straight into the abyss if all I can get is a 2nd. I loved his profile and gametape. His NFL gametape looked quite good, even if his stats didn't meet the thresholds we'd hoped. I own him in 3 leagues, and if the going rate is a 2nd, I'll own him in more before next season kicks off...

I’m sure that’s a bit of hyperbole, but that’s dangerous thinking. I’m not saying u should take any 2nd you can get and run, but you should def stay flexible. If you have three shares and someone offered you a very early 2nd, you wouldn’t consider moving off at least that one share? Even just to mitigate some risk across your squads?

Hypothetically, if he stays same or gets worse through the end of next year, would you still ride that right into the ground, or would you take any late 2nd/early 3rd you could get at that point?

[yinzername]

Right on.

I agree that a 2nd is crazy low. KTC has him equal to 1.08. That feels like it’s in the right ballpark.

That does seem about right given that 1.07 (in SF) is where you might be getting Odunze or Bowers (at this point in the process)

If I could re-roll for one of the big 3 WR's this year, I'd definitely at least think about it.

1qb or SF? By all accounts, the WR3 this year is a better prospect that JSN ever was. I just don’t see anyone at all giving up Odunze/Nabers for JSN. Even the 1.08-1.09 in SF, that still looks like QB4/Bowers at worst. Then back end of the 1st in SF is WR4-6 or RB1 or another possible NFL 1st round QB. I’m taking that reroll over JSN.

1qb, different story. I’m not knocking anyone for taking JSN over about the 1.08ish there. But I’m not falling over myself trying to unload any 1st for him all the same