Black Monday 2024 & Offseason Coaching Changes

[mild]

Are those last 2 posts spot on. Johnson got everything he could out of Hurts’ limitations. The league just caught up to them and after that it was a free fall.

You can't seriously tell me that the Eagles 2023 offense was "getting everything you can out of Hurts" when we literally have Steichan's 2022 version of "the exact same offensive personnel" to look back on.

It regressed majorly this year.

A new perspective, new ideas - which Kellen Moore will provide - is sorely needed. If Brian Johnson was such a good OC "getting the most" out of Hurts and this offense... then you'd think he might still have a job right now. Or be sought after. He's unemployed.

[Anteaters]

Are those last 2 posts spot on. Johnson got everything he could out of Hurts’ limitations. The league just caught up to them and after that it was a free fall.

You can't seriously tell me that the Eagles 2023 offense was "getting everything you can out of Hurts" when we literally have Steichan's 2022 version of "the exact same offensive personnel" to look back on.

It regressed majorly this year.

A new perspective, new ideas - which Kellen Moore will provide - is sorely needed. If Brian Johnson was such a good OC "getting the most" out of Hurts and this offense... then you'd think he might still have a job right now. Or be sought after. He's unemployed.

Sounds like you're saying Hurts talent and ability isn't enough to be great in an ordinary system. But in a perfectly designed and well-run scheme, he can do a lot better. That sounds a lot like a QB who should be described as a game manager. No shame in that, but I want to make sure we're all on the same page.

[Sriracha]

I think Hurts has peaked. I'd be shocked if he hasn't, TBH.

He's done more than most, including myself, ever expected, out of college. He is still, however, hampered by a lot of the things that made him a 2nd round pick, and he's now in the top tier of cap hits for QB's.

Betting against Jalen Hurts, huh. This sounds familiar.

Just so we can get your take on the record, because we all know how important that is: you're saying that Hurts will no longer have any further Top 5 fantasy seasons at the QB position?

Some of us would like more clarity from you, oh great freak of fantasy...

QB2 overall in 2023 fantasy
QB3 overall in 2022 fantasy
QB9 overall in 2021 fantasy

What's interesting to me is that it's almost like the receiving pieces that helped him get to those finishes in 2022 and 2023 are all coming back... keen to hear more about this alleged "peaking".

https://twitter.com/NFLTrenchBattle/sta ... 2337876293

Since Nick Bosa said that the Eagles have gone from 10-1 with wins over LAR, KC and BUF to 1-6 with their only win over the NYG (and they were getting smoked the 2nd time they played them). Excluding the 2nd NYG's game where he injured his finger (even though he was playing poorly even before that) Hurts has thrown for 226 yards per game with a good chunk of that coming in garbage time, he has a 5-5 TD/INT ratio (with 3 of those coming vs the worst pass D in the NFL, ARZ). In the games preceeding this he was throwing for 245 yards per game (not boosted by garbage time) with an 18-10 TD/INT ratio.

Maybe this is just a coincidence and this is solely due to him perseveering through injuries he shouldn't have but there is definitely a chance we're seeing the beginning of a downward swing in his career.

If you go back through his career it's pretty clear which year was his outlier passing year.

I own a ton of AJB so I'm hoping he rights the ship but I'm worried.

[mild]

Sounds like you're saying Hurts talent and ability isn't enough to be great in an ordinary system. But in a perfectly designed and well-run scheme, he can do a lot better. That sounds a lot like a QB who should be described as a game manager. No shame in that, but I want to make sure we're all on the same page.

Are you nuts? You might be nuts.

If the QB2 in Fantasy who went 11-6 with no run game this season is a "Game Manager" in your world then I really don't know what to tell you.

[cazzie33]

Hurts played hurt from about week7 on that limited his mobility then hurt his finger late. Some was up to regression but it just was a over all bad 2nd half of the season. Lane Johnson, Goedert & Hurts needed a full offseason to recover from injury.

I project Hurts to still be top 5. If that’s his peak then there is not too much to complain about. Not much room to rise in rankings but I’d expect his overall numbers to be better next year if healthy even if he stays @ 5th ish

[ThirdWW]

What do we think of Grubb going to the Seahawks, specifically for JSN?

[Shoreline Steamers]

What do we think of Grubb going to the Seahawks, specifically for JSN?

I very much like this hire, and generally what Seattle has done during this coaching cycle. Grubb was a very successful OC with the University of Washington under coach DeBoer, and was widely expected to stay with him in Alabama (until Friday). There's always a lot of "talk" about what direction a team will take with new coaching, but I'm choosing to believe what I'm hearing. Namely that these coaches will evaluate their roster's strengths and weaknesses, building an offense around the skills of the players they have. They will not be working to fit square pegs in round holes.

Overall, the staff is fairly young (and inexperienced) by NFL standards. But I find that exciting as well. I'd rather Seattle take a shot building something new rather than relying on retreads as seems to happen every year in the NFL. Just shuffling the same deck over and over.

Hard to say specifically what this will look like offensively. UW was pass heavy with Penix and an excellent WR group, and a decent, but not stellar running game. The plan was predicated on maximizing the players on their roster. By MacDonald's own admission regarding the Seahawks, "To have a specific answer for you what it's going to look like, I can't do that now. But that'll come into focus here sooner than later."

The next big milestone comes next Friday, when Geno Smith's contract becomes guaranteed for 2024. I'd expect him to be back, but we'll see. I also wouldn't be surprised if Schneider decides to move down from 16 to add additional draft picks, and then goes after Penix later in the 1st round to ensure a 5th year option. Sure it's a guess, but it makes a lot of sense to add a QB that Grubb has had success working with in the past.

With regard to JSN. No matter what system the team ultimately employs, I'd expect him to have a larger role than Lockett in 2024. Tyler can still contribute, but he's clearly on the downward arc of his career, while JSN is ascending. I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in stats for DK, and JSN, with Lockett contributing similar numbers to what he had in 2023, but we'll see.

Apologies for the novel, this is just a topic I'm excited to discuss. Change for our favorite teams generally brings out a lot of different opinions. Mine is that this will be a net positive for Seattle. Not that they'll instantly ascend to the top of the division or anything like that. It does take time to build culture. But I very much like the direction they're heading and the coaches they've hired in the post-Pete era.

[Bronco Billy]

What do we think of Grubb going to the Seahawks, specifically for JSN?

Massive reach. Never coached at the NFL level and only a couple of years experience at the Power 5 level.

Not sure how this pans out, and I hope it works out well, but there is every bit as good a chance he’s way in over his head as he implements a successful system and is an effective play caller.

[Shoreline Steamers]

What do we think of Grubb going to the Seahawks, specifically for JSN?

Massive reach. Never coached at the NFL level and only a couple of years experience at the Power 5 level.

Not sure how this pans out, and I hope it works out well, but there is every bit as good a chance he’s way in over his head as he implements a successful system and is an effective play caller.

You're not wrong BB. I'm taking heads, sounds like you're leaning tails. We'll just have to wait and see how the coin flips. Admittedly, I'm a homer!

[Bronco Billy]

What do we think of Grubb going to the Seahawks, specifically for JSN?

Massive reach. Never coached at the NFL level and only a couple of years experience at the Power 5 level.

Not sure how this pans out, and I hope it works out well, but there is every bit as good a chance he’s way in over his head as he implements a successful system and is an effective play caller.

You're not wrong BB. I'm taking heads, sounds like you're leaning tails. We'll just have to wait and see how the coin flips. Admittedly, I'm a homer!

Well, if Geno ends up staying there I hope he does two things (or rather his GM does one and then he does the other) is first bolstering their O line by more than just a little and then secondly that he limits Geno’s pass attempts per game and leans more on the running game, especially as he gets his legs under him and he learns just how sophisticated and fast NFL Ds are. He hasn’t seen anything close to even mediocre NFL Ds yet and Geno seems to be more effective when he’s not throwing a bunch and his running game is setting up his pass game.

[Sriracha]

Massive reach. Never coached at the NFL level and only a couple of years experience at the Power 5 level.

Not sure how this pans out, and I hope it works out well, but there is every bit as good a chance he’s way in over his head as he implements a successful system and is an effective play caller.

You're not wrong BB. I'm taking heads, sounds like you're leaning tails. We'll just have to wait and see how the coin flips. Admittedly, I'm a homer!

Well, if Geno ends up staying there I hope he does two things (or rather his GM does one and then he does the other) is first bolstering their O line by more than just a little and then secondly that he limits Geno’s pass attempts per game and leans more on the running game, especially as he gets his legs under him and he learns just how sophisticated and fast NFL Ds are. He hasn’t seen anything close to even mediocre NFL Ds yet and Geno seems to be more effective when he’s not throwing a bunch and his running game is setting up his pass game.

I don't think Geno is a QB you hide.

He's a lot better than people give him credit for. Maybe a notch below the Dak, Kirk Cousins tier.

Very capable of running a high volume offense if need be. Just needs the SEA O-line to not get ravaged by injuries.

[yinzername]

I was already in the “sell JSN now” camp, which is honestly only about three tents and a cooler full
of a few White Claws in lukewarm water, lol. This doesn’t change that for me tho. I’m ready to bust out a bottle of bourbon, stoke the fire, and wait for my friends to come up the trail

[wickerkat1212]

I was already in the “sell JSN now” camp, which is honestly only about three tents and a cooler full
of a few White Claws in lukewarm water, lol. This doesn’t change that for me tho. I’m ready to bust out a bottle of bourbon, stoke the fire, and wait for my friends to come up the trail

Taking him with a 1st round pick I'm holding for quite a while.

[yinzername]

I was already in the “sell JSN now” camp, which is honestly only about three tents and a cooler full
of a few White Claws in lukewarm water, lol. This doesn’t change that for me tho. I’m ready to bust out a bottle of bourbon, stoke the fire, and wait for my friends to come up the trail

Taking him with a 1st round pick I'm holding for quite a while.

Legit curiosity; what’s your expectation in year 2? Year 3? What have you seen that gives you posi vibes, and can you honestly say what negatives you see?

[Bronco Billy]

I was already in the “sell JSN now” camp, which is honestly only about three tents and a cooler full
of a few White Claws in lukewarm water, lol. This doesn’t change that for me tho. I’m ready to bust out a bottle of bourbon, stoke the fire, and wait for my friends to come up the trail

Taking him with a 1st round pick I'm holding for quite a while.

Seems like you still don’t understand the concept of the sunk cost fallacy.