Offseason Shopping List

[StripesOfKC]

Every year around this time I have some guys who I am set on throwing out offers for and in some cases even ones I've decided I absolutely need on my roster by the start of the following year (even if I have to get creative)

I'd presume others think similarly. Here are my targets this offseason by position (ranked from top buys to more situational)

QB:

Trevor Lawrence: injured, bad weapons, still locked in starter for the foreseeable future and was playing great before the Bengals game where he got hurt the first time and had Kirk

Kyler Murray: locked in starter and producing as a rusher immediately after his knee injury but still not priced like a league winning fantasy upside type player; also likely getting a premium WR asset

Patrick Mahomes: seriously might be your only chance to buy him low

Bryce Young: a buy low not a simple "buy" but premium prospects who have awful first seasons often turn it around---it is not a rare thing; I don't believe it can get much worse from a weapons and coaching POV and I don't buy that his bad season is comparable to the bad seasons of prospects who were never good like Kenny Pickett, EJ Manuel, Josh Rosen, etc

Aaron Rodgers: he is ranked QB28 on KTC which is insane (between trash like Kenny Pickett and Derek Carr!)---I don't see him ending his career with a week 1 injury and if he plays it's hard for me to see how he is not a QB2; if you're contending sell your Goff or Baker for Rodgers++

RB: I really don't like buying RBs in the offseason in general because the draft and FA shakes up so much here but I nonetheless have a few guys in mind. Just a note to tread with caution

Tyjae Spears: tricky because a Spears owner is likely not selling for market value but I made a post earlier this year on just how remarkable it is that a 3rd round rookie is taking work from Derrick Henry---throw in pass catching and the fact that a Henry return makes little sense for either him or the Titans and we may be seeing 2024's Rachaad White except with better rushing peripherals

Joe Mixon: cheap, proven workload and point production, good offense; of course tread carefully with the offseason's uncertainty but he quietly produced this season even after Chase Brown's emergence and should do so again

Derrick Henry: likely headed to a contender with an RB34 price and still produced this year despite a terrible OL; his days of winning you championships are over but a low RB1 season is still well within the range of outcomes

Aaron Jones: similarly cheap, proven production with pass catching upside on an ascending offense; the Packers likely add to the backfield with Dillon's contract up but at Jones' price point I am still in; take your Brian Robinsons, Javonte Williams and D'Andre Swifts and flip them an old guy+ (all have the same job security but for the young guys it's not as priced in)

Zamir White: puts the LOW in buy low but the Raiders have tons of needs and seem cool on giving Jacobs what he wants; throw in the surprising competence White showed these last few weeks and the odds that he has a chance at getting the preseason Mattison like value boost from being the projected starter are higher than he is priced at

Rico Dowdle: Pollard is almost certainly walking after a meh year as the lead back while the Zeke deal showed the Cowboys what paying for an RB gets you; do I think he is the lead back week 1? no, but is it more probable than most realize especially with the down RB class? Absolutely, and worse case you have a high value handcuff which is his current price anyways

Ty Chandler: wasn't sure to include him but his price point is low enough to merit consideration as he overtook Mattison with solid rushing peripherals, who could possibly be cut (though not a certainty) and has an FO that is analytically minded enough to devalue the RB position as they already showed once

WR

Rashee Rice: I didn't think he'd be here but at WR22 his price is still too low behind the likes of bleep JSN, DK and 10 spots behind Jordan Addison; the discourse on him reminds me so much of rookie Amon Ra where people just shrugged it off because of lack of target competition while ignoring his peripherals and the fact that no other targets in that offense showed his level of domination

Diontae Johnson: a QB upgrade is coming to Pittsburgh and he still earned targets at an excellent clip this past year---being priced around bums like Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson is just ridiculous and shows the discount an injury plagued year can provide

Stefon Diggs: probably not super tempting after an awful end to the season but he is still an elite target earner whose peripherals remain among the top of league---even with the ADOT and volume drop in the second half of the year; he is not yet old enough for me to be putting him around George Pickens and Jayden Reed

Dontayvion Wicks: very underrated rookie season despite a crowded WR room (but notably: one without a true alpha who has separated himself) on an ascending offense; excellent peripheral stats and even pretty good volume ones despite not getting a featured role until late in the year---no reason to be priced around longshots like Elijah Moore and Treylon Burks

Wan'Dale Robinson: cheap buy yes bit one whose target earning ability has gone totally unnoticed thanks to how terrible the passing offense is and how boring it is when non rookies have this type of year (as opposed to say Demario Douglas); I see the Giants adding to their WR room but he is still a 2nd round pick from this regime and should have a path to volume in an offense that cannot be worse next year---a WR3 at WR7 prices is very much worth a shot


TE:

Mark Andrews: TE2 at TE5 prices right now thanks to injury and Zay Flowers' emergence---not much else to be said: not many get to be elite TEs: Andrews has shown he is

Michael Mayer: has solid peripherals that address the YAC and contested catch knocks people had on him as a prospect and got hurt just as he was becoming a bigger part of the offense---the price hasn't fallen quite as much as I'd have liked (TE13) but with the prospect of a QB upgrade I feel like he is the strongest candidate for next year's Mcbride

Greg Dulcich and Jelani Woods: Dulcich was legitimately awesome as a rookie and Woods flashed some ability to play football on an ascending offense for a good/creative coach top of his insane athleticism---no one else has stepped into those roles for their teams and they are basically throw ins/free (especially Woods)

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I read for 2 seconds and had to reply. TLaws weapons are overrated but they’re not bad. I’d say worst case scenario they’re league average.

[mild]

Diontae Johnson: a QB upgrade is coming to Pittsburgh and he still earned targets at an excellent clip this past year---being priced around bums like Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson is just ridiculous and shows the discount an injury plagued year can provide

I must have missed it, but why are we sure there's a QB upgrade coming?

Perhaps more to the point: why do you think Diontae will be there when it does? (UFA in 2025 in his age 29 season)

[StripesOfKC]

Diontae Johnson: a QB upgrade is coming to Pittsburgh and he still earned targets at an excellent clip this past year---being priced around bums like Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson is just ridiculous and shows the discount an injury plagued year can provide

I must have missed it, but why are we sure there's a QB upgrade coming?

Perhaps more to the point: why do you think Diontae will be there when it does? (UFA in 2025 in his age 29 season)

Nobody can be worse than Kenny Pickett—-Mason Rudolph included

Russell Wilson or Justin Fields would be an upgrade

As for Diontae either way if he leaves that is still a QB upgrade—-that said I don’t think he does. The amount his production has been limited by their current trash QBs will limit his price tag

[StripesOfKC]

I read for 2 seconds and had to reply. TLaws weapons are overrated but they’re not bad. I’d say worst case scenario they’re league average.

Without Kirk they’re pretty bad IMO

Calvin Ridley’s fantasy production was fine but in reality he was terrible this year

Evan Engram was a meme before the last season and a half

Ridley is probably not getting a deal meaning I see heavy investment at the position

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I read for 2 seconds and had to reply. TLaws weapons are overrated but they’re not bad. I’d say worst case scenario they’re league average.

Without Kirk they’re pretty bad IMO

Calvin Ridley’s fantasy production was fine but in reality he was terrible this year

Evan Engram was a meme before the last season and a half

Ridley is probably not getting a deal meaning I see heavy investment at the position

Hmm, we’ll just have to agree to disagree then. Just don’t forget Etienne also, who is at least a league average or better receiving back. Caught 53 balls this year.

[StripesOfKC]

I read for 2 seconds and had to reply. TLaws weapons are overrated but they’re not bad. I’d say worst case scenario they’re league average.

Without Kirk they’re pretty bad IMO

Calvin Ridley’s fantasy production was fine but in reality he was terrible this year

Evan Engram was a meme before the last season and a half

Ridley is probably not getting a deal meaning I see heavy investment at the position

Hmm, we’ll just have to agree to disagree then. Just don’t forget Etienne also, who is at least a league average or better receiving back. Caught 53 balls this year.

Etienne is definitely a good RB but that’s probably the least important position in a supporting cast unless it’s incredible/terrible

Still leaves him as not having played with a number 1 WR in his career

[Orenthal Shames]

Dowdle was only on a one year deal. He may not even be in Dallas in 2024. Worth a flier, but wouldn't pay more than a 4th.

[CGW]

Herbert is someone I'm after as a buy low this off season.

[mild]

I must have missed it, but why are we sure there's a QB upgrade coming?

Perhaps more to the point: why do you think Diontae will be there when it does? (UFA in 2025 in his age 29 season)

Nobody can be worse than Kenny Pickett—-Mason Rudolph included

Russell Wilson or Justin Fields would be an upgrade

As for Diontae either way if he leaves that is still a QB upgrade—-that said I don’t think he does. The amount his production has been limited by their current trash QBs will limit his price tag

As someone who has had Denver WR shares, and watched enough of Fields in the passing game to be sated...

I don't really find this definition of a "QB upgrade" anything that moves the needle.

Seems like a "QB lateral move within half a step forward or backwards" to me. Even if you got either of those "Quarterbacks", my guess is that both guys would sooner target Pickens as that fits more of the archetype of WR they've had success throwing to.

Besides all of that, I get the feeling it's just going to be Pickett and Rudolph again. Steelers have a late pick as it currently stands, and it's only going to get later when they beat the Ravens backups this week and make the playoffs.

[Sriracha]

I like the WR shopping cart.

I’m not touching Bryce with a 10 foot pole at his price point.

He could turn things around but you’re underestimating how bad this rookie season has been. It’s absolutely comparable to Josh Rosens.

Trevor Lawrence seems to be stuck in that tier 3 Zone. If you want to pay tier 2 prices for Mobile Derek Carr have at it. He relies way too much on the TE position for a supposedly elite talent.

[StripesOfKC]

I must have missed it, but why are we sure there's a QB upgrade coming?

Perhaps more to the point: why do you think Diontae will be there when it does? (UFA in 2025 in his age 29 season)

Nobody can be worse than Kenny Pickett—-Mason Rudolph included

Russell Wilson or Justin Fields would be an upgrade

As for Diontae either way if he leaves that is still a QB upgrade—-that said I don’t think he does. The amount his production has been limited by their current trash QBs will limit his price tag

As someone who has had Denver WR shares, and watched enough of Fields in the passing game to be sated...

I don't really find this definition of a "QB upgrade" anything that moves the needle.

Seems like a "QB lateral move within half a step forward or backwards" to me. Even if you got either of those "Quarterbacks", my guess is that both guys would sooner target Pickens as that fits more of the archetype of WR they've had success throwing to.

Besides all of that, I get the feeling it's just going to be Pickett and Rudolph again. Steelers have a late pick as it currently stands, and it's only going to get later when they beat the Ravens backups this week and make the playoffs.

Fields got DJ Moore into the WR1 tier

Russell Wilson threw for 26 touchdowns/8 interceptions, got Denver closer to the AFC West title than they have been in more than half a decade, Courtland Sutton to low WR2 numbers and Jerry Jeudy to (nearly) 1000 yards

Both are NFL quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett is the worst QB an NFL team has started the season with on purpose in a few years excluding Zach Wilson. He has once in his career thrown for more than a touchdown in a game.

He is not comparable to Fields or Wilson

[StripesOfKC]

I like the WR shopping cart.

I’m not touching Bryce with a 10 foot pole at his price point.

He could turn things around but you’re underestimating how bad this rookie season has been. It’s absolutely comparable to Josh Rosens.

Trevor Lawrence seems to be stuck in that tier 3 Zone. If you want to pay tier 2 prices for Mobile Derek Carr have at it. He relies way too much on the TE position for a supposedly elite talent.

Lawrence has had stretches of QB1 production. He could fizzle out and end up like Carr but his peripherals didn't really decline much this year (PFF passing grade, big time throws, etc) and he was near top of the league in dropped balls

And I'm saying Bryce's rookie year isn't comparable to Rosen's not because of the rookie numbers but because Bryce the prospect isn't comparable to Rosen the prospect.

Bad prospects having bad rookie years means it's over. Premium prospects having bad rookie years certainly isn't good but they end up working out regardless often enough

[tstafford]

London - I've been a buyer since day one. Still buying.

Downs - Seems there's could be a disconnect on market value vs. the player trajectory. Worry here is the impact of AR.

Young - highly price dependent. For a mid-2nd, yes. Higher than that, no. The draft capital means he'll get plenty of chances. I worry however about the culture in CAR.

JSN - For a late first in SF if possible. Need rookie draft fever to kick in to high gear.

[TheTroll]

Justin Fields: Shop for a new home with plenty of free acres to roam.

Assassin for Hire: Someone to contract taking out Artie Smith for the draft insurance benefits to live comfortably on

BOGO Deals: I have no 2024 picks (team two). Looking for deals involving existing player for another + a pick

Consignment Shops & Goodwill: You never know when you can find a great deal on "gently used" players for cheap that can at least help you stay warm thru the winter.