Marvin Harrison Jr or Bijan Robinson?

[BradyT]

Pre-draft 2023 and pre-draft 2024.. who do you chose as your cornerstone out of these supposed generational kind of players?

I hold the 1.01 pick in my 2nd oldest dynasty league(traded for it some years ago) and just wanna see we're I am at with it.

[Menace2010]

I'm a build around young WRs type of guy. So to me it's definitely MHJr. Bijan is elite. I'm certainly not put off by his year 1 production. But even if he's exactly what we hope he's done in 5ish years. If MHJr is what we all think and legitimately a top 5 WR from year 1, give me 10 years of that please and thank you.

[abloom]

I will always give a big edge to the wr.

[Jigga94]

MHJ

[Cameron Giles]

Almost every RB gets injured or struggles because of a poor offensive line or something. WRs are a better long-term bet to building. RBs put you over the top in short windows.

Harrison is the better real life prospect and would have a shot at going #1 overall if Caleb Williams wasn't considered all-time elite.

[MacDaddy123]

MHJ for me!!!

I felt this way since the 2023 rookie draft in May.
I said back then that Caleb, MHJ, and maybe even Drake Maye would have more value coming out in 2024 than Bijan did in 2023.

If Bijan was in the 2024 class he probably would not go until 1.05 at the earliest in SF leagues, IMO.

[DJB]

MHJ for me!!!

I felt this way since the 2023 rookie draft in May.
I said back then that Caleb, MHJ, and maybe even Drake Maye would have more value coming out in 2024 than Bijan did in 2023.

If Bijan was in the 2024 class he probably would not go until 1.05 at the earliest in SF leagues, IMO.

Yeah I’m going to disagree on this. The top 3 would be Harrison, Caleb and Bijan and they would all be interchangeable depending on need and team makeup.

And everyone loves owning a top tier RB.

The hype for Bijan last year was “the best RB prospect since Saquon” and we saw some wild trade ups for him. Once Arthur Smith is gone he will be unleashed.

[JoeJoe88]

MHJ for me!!!

I felt this way since the 2023 rookie draft in May.
I said back then that Caleb, MHJ, and maybe even Drake Maye would have more value coming out in 2024 than Bijan did in 2023.

If Bijan was in the 2024 class he probably would not go until 1.05 at the earliest in SF leagues, IMO.

Yeah I’m going to disagree on this. The top 3 would be Harrison, Caleb and Bijan and they would all be interchangeable depending on need and team makeup.

And everyone loves owning a top tier RB.

The hype for Bijan last year was “the best RB prospect since Saquon” and we saw some wild trade ups for him. Once Arthur Smith is gone he will be unleashed.

Agreed. There’s no way Bijan would be any worse than 1.03 in this class in SF.

[TheTroll]

I will always give a big edge to the wr.

This is the proper methodology to live by

[Bronco Billy]

So much of this decision is dependent on your league’s size/scoring/starting requirements, and I’m honestly surprised at this board that no one has asked for that information.

In a standard league that requires you to start 2 RBs, 2 WRs and flex the no-brainer answer is Bijan. Top RBs have much more value than top WRs in that kind of league.

If you’re in a full ppr start 1 RB and 3 WRs plus flex the top WRs will have more value and the answer is Harrison.

I don’t buy into looking at 10 year windows. There’s way too much career/team variability to be able to reasonably anticipate outcomes that far out. Hell, look at Garrett Wilson’s value differential within the first 5 minutes of the start of the season this year. I do believe in trying to gage 3 years windows, possibly extending to 5 years.

Also something to consider is this coming draft where we look like we’re going to have strong to very strong QB and WR classes where RBs look pretty weak. That adds value to top RBs in a 3 to 5 year window and dilutes WR values.

Then there’s your leaguemates and their philosophies. In a RB crazy league using a top pick on a RB when all other factors are relatively equal makes more sense because you can capture greater trade value, whereas using a midround pick in that league on a WR when greater talent is falling makes more sense.

There are a lot of factors to go into this decision. More information would go a long way in getting better answers.

[BradyT]

So much of this decision is dependent on your league’s size/scoring/starting requirements, and I’m honestly surprised at this board that no one has asked for that information.

In a standard league that requires you to start 2 RBs, 2 WRs and flex the no-brainer answer is Bijan. Top RBs have much more value than top WRs in that kind of league.

If you’re in a full ppr start 1 RB and 3 WRs plus flex the top WRs will have more value and the answer is Harrison.

I don’t buy into looking at 10 year windows. There’s way too much career/team variability to be able to reasonably anticipate outcomes that far out. Hell, look at Garrett Wilson’s value differential within the first 5 minutes of the start of the season this year. I do believe in trying to gage 3 years windows, possibly extending to 5 years.

Also something to consider is this coming draft where we look like we’re going to have strong to very strong QB and WR classes where RBs look pretty weak. That adds value to top RBs in a 3 to 5 year window and dilutes WR values.

Then there’s your leaguemates and their philosophies. In a RB crazy league using a top pick on a RB when all other factors are relatively equal makes more sense because you can capture greater trade value, whereas using a midround pick in that league on a WR when greater talent is falling makes more sense.

There are a lot of factors to go into this decision. More information would go a long way in getting better answers.

League specifics:

1 QB
2 RB's
3 WR's
1 TE
1 Flex(not a SF)

0.5 ppr


My main interest is to get a grasp of what people see in the kind of talent that is waiting for me(hopefully he declares...) compared to the other ultra hyped talent.


Btw: not for the team below

[CGW]

MHJ for me, in pretty much all formats except maybe a start 3 non PPR scoring.

[wickerkat1212]

MHJ

[tstafford]

I'd rather have MHJR but I'm sure there are team specific situations where Bijan is a better asset. Bijan was wildly overvalued this preseason and many of were saying that. The common response to trade questions was "yeah, that's what's it's gonna cost and I wouldn't pay that". My bet is Bijan is still too pricey for my blood. Will be interesting to see how folks compare the value of MHJR to Bijan during draft season and leading up to week one. Bijan will be a better asset for contending teams in the short term. But that's only one aspect of value.

I'll add this: I hold the 1.01 in my SF league but believe I can contend this season. I will not trade it for Bijan. If I wanted to move it for a RB I'd rather get a "lesser" back plus something.

[Bronco Billy]

Full disclosure - I am a Bijan owner, and I also believe that both Bijan and MHJr are bonafide studs.

Given the information provided, I’d lean Robinson but it’s pretty close. Here’s why:

You start 2 RBs and 3 WRs. That puts positional value close because even though you start more WRs, significant WRs are also more plentiful than RBs. The 0.5 ppr helps RB value more than WR value. So RBs overall with all other things being equal are going to have more value in your league.

WRs generally are going to have more longevity than RBs, but Bijan is a very good receiver and also has a good running mate in Allgeier. That reduces the wear and tear on him. Kamara has had an 8 year career to date and entered the league a year older than Bijan, and he’s probably not done after this year yet. He may be a decent comp for career length assessment. It’s reasonable to expect similar longevity for Bijan, so it’s within reason to expect a decent 10 year career of productivity. That’s pretty solid - figure MHJr to last a couple of years longer but they’re pretty comparable.

We’ve seen that Bijan can play. His detractors can crow right now about how he’s not meeting expectations, but I see that as a false narrative. He’s already over 1200 yds from scrimmage and that’s with really poor QB play supporting him and some horrendous usage by his HC. If you start to get into the weeds on him, you’ll see things like lack of targets. He ought to be getting at least 6 targets a game with as good of a receiver as he is - and he is that good - yet he’s only had 6 or more targets in 6 games. That’s just stupid coaching. He also isn’t getting downfield on his targets. His average yds before contact receiving is -0.4 yds. That’s got to be in positive territory (Kamara’s career ave YBC is +0.4 yds) but again his usage is in serious question. Then you have many occasions where he’ll get a nice 5-7 yd gain on the first play of a drive and get pulled immediately. How does that figure in game flow?

You just can’t get around that his HC has no idea how to use a RB like Bijan. If we see Smith removed as HC and we see even mediocre QBing moving forward in ATL, it’s well within rational thought that Bijan’s productivity can improve by 10-15%, maybe more. There’s plenty of room for improvement in a system that chooses to optimize his talents.

That puts Bijan in the range of the premium RB talent that he was projected by many to be and doesn’t really get into his ceiling.

Looking at MHJr, I’m unabashedly a huge fan. I do believe he will be that good. I know we haven’t seen him in the bigs yet but he’s got all the earmarks. So I have no problem projecting him as a premium WR in the NFL.

If both projections are fairly accurate, then you’ve got a premium RB vs a premium WR going H2H here. That being the case, I’d default to value of each in your league and I do believe that Bijan will carry slightly better value. So I’d opt for Bijan between the two, but I don’t see the difference in value as being very much and think a strong case can be made for going with MHJr.