Gap Between AJB & DK?

[Sriracha]

Whether you like it or not, the gap is a 1st as it stands today and it's entirely due to QB play IMO. AJB is tied to Jalen for the foreseeable future, whereas DK is tied to Geno for maybe 1-2 years and unknown after that. They are very similar in terms of talent IMO, both big bodied guy who rack up YAC but in order to get consistency, you'll have to give up a 1st most likely.

AJB is just a more complete receiver that can win in a multitude of ways.

DK is an elite deep threat but isn't great in space and will never have a varied route tree. The only way I could see him approaching AJB is if he finds himself in a high volume offense coupled with a deep ball specialist -- someone like Mahomes or Stafford.

Geno isn't that far off from Hurts as a passer.

[mild]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

I know, I know, KTC... but...

https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankin ... filters=WR

If this is any wider reflection of how the community views these two WR's, they are viewed as multiple dynasty asset tiers apart - Tier 3 vs. Tier 7.

AJB is on pace for a 282 pt season in 0.5 PPR (16.6 pts per game / ppg)
DK is on pace for a 206 pt season in 0.5 PPR (12.9 ppg + missed a game)

AJB outscored DK 255 pts to 181 pts in 2022.

I'm sorry, but I don't think these two WR's are similarly talented.

[hoos89]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal if DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb literally 2 days before he tore his ACL. Felt pretty bad about turning those down after that happened!

[hoos89]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week. If your metric for making a deal is "would I still want to do this deal if the main piece I'm receiving in return suffers a season ending injury next week" then I don't see how you make any trade that isn't for picks or injured players.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal and DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte for Hurts a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb for Conner and a late 1st literally 2 days before he blew up his knee. Felt pretty bad about those after the fact!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal if DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb literally 2 days before he tore his ACL. Felt pretty bad about turning those down after that happened!

Yeah but I’d still have the 1st. That’s the whole point. You still have the 1st and you’ll get DK back eventually.

I traded for Breece his rookie season. Tears his acl. Ok no big deal, back to full strength this year/next year, age 22/23. Not the same when you’re talking about a 26 yo wr.

As for similarly talented, that’s just my opinion. I understand that is not the consensus. AJB has a better overall skill set, but in terms of upside if in similar situations I’d say they are about equal.

Edit: it’s not “oh any trade you could say this or that”, I’m saying when the players are similar as in this scenario, adding a 1st is stupid in my opinion. You don’t know the future, I don’t know the future, give me the side with the 1st

[murphysxm]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal if DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb literally 2 days before he tore his ACL. Felt pretty bad about turning those down after that happened!

Yeah but I’d still have the 1st. That’s the whole point. You still have the 1st and you’ll get DK back eventually.

I traded for Breece his rookie season. Tears his acl. Ok no big deal, back to full strength this year/next year, age 22/23. Not the same when you’re talking about a 26 yo wr.

As for similarly talented, that’s just my opinion. I understand that is not the consensus. AJB has a better overall skill set, but in terms of upside if in similar situations I’d say they are about equal.

Edit: it’s not “oh any trade you could say this or that”, I’m saying when the players are similar as in this scenario, adding a 1st is stupid in my opinion. You don’t know the future, I don’t know the future, give me the side with the 1st

If you truly see their values as similar, I understand your stance. I just think you might be the biggest DK truther we out there if you believe they are even close to the same value.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal if DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb literally 2 days before he tore his ACL. Felt pretty bad about turning those down after that happened!

Yeah but I’d still have the 1st. That’s the whole point. You still have the 1st and you’ll get DK back eventually.

I traded for Breece his rookie season. Tears his acl. Ok no big deal, back to full strength this year/next year, age 22/23. Not the same when you’re talking about a 26 yo wr.

As for similarly talented, that’s just my opinion. I understand that is not the consensus. AJB has a better overall skill set, but in terms of upside if in similar situations I’d say they are about equal.

Edit: it’s not “oh any trade you could say this or that”, I’m saying when the players are similar as in this scenario, adding a 1st is stupid in my opinion. You don’t know the future, I don’t know the future, give me the side with the 1st

If you truly see their values as similar, I understand your stance. I just think you might be the biggest DK truther we out there if you believe they are even close to the same value.

Ignoring touchdowns since they’re volatile and both players score a decent amount of tds (it’s really only last year ajb had a big edge in td), ajb is only giving you around a 2-3 ppg advantage over DK with his extra yardage. I’m not paying a 1st for that.

[MontrealBen]

this is why picks aren't a great way to close gaps IMO. Their level of variance is too great to measure. I would trade AJB for DK + 2nd + and a player like Michael Wilson or Rashee Rice. I generally don't trade for players at their peak. I generally always trade down. For example if I had Metcalf I would prefer to trade for Tee Higgins + than trade Metcalf + for AJB.

This can be true, but it obviously helps if both sides are willing to share the risk/reward of picks. Feels to me like AJB and a mid to late 2nd for DK and a decent 1st would be about right…

[hoos89]

this is why picks aren't a great way to close gaps IMO. Their level of variance is too great to measure. I would trade AJB for DK + 2nd + and a player like Michael Wilson or Rashee Rice. I generally don't trade for players at their peak. I generally always trade down. For example if I had Metcalf I would prefer to trade for Tee Higgins + than trade Metcalf + for AJB.

This can be true, but it obviously helps if both sides are willing to share the risk/reward of picks. Feels to me like AJB and a mid to late 2nd for DK and a decent 1st would be about right…

This wouldn't* come close to getting AJB from me unless "decent 1st" means "top 4". [Edit]

Ignoring touchdowns since they’re volatile and both players score a decent amount of tds (it’s really only last year ajb had a big edge in td), ajb is only giving you around a 2-3 ppg advantage over DK with his extra yardage. I’m not paying a 1st for that.

Don't think it makes sense to just completely ignore TDs...also AJB only has 1 more TD than DK on the season. Really not as big of a difference as the extra 32 catches for 350 yards. Still about a 4.4 ppg gap if you ignore that 1 extra TD. Age more or less equal, moving from a mid WR2 to a mid WR1 is worth at LEAST a late 1st. Especially in leagues that don't have super deep lineups (e.g. 12 team start 8).

[FantasyFreak]

The vast majority of deals look bad if the most valuable piece you're getting back tears his ACL the next week.

On the flip side...how would you feel if you turned down the deal if DK Metcalf tore his ACL next week? I turned down an offer last season to flip Javonte a couple weeks before he tore his ACL and this season to flip Chubb literally 2 days before he tore his ACL. Felt pretty bad about turning those down after that happened!

Yeah but I’d still have the 1st. That’s the whole point. You still have the 1st and you’ll get DK back eventually.

I traded for Breece his rookie season. Tears his acl. Ok no big deal, back to full strength this year/next year, age 22/23. Not the same when you’re talking about a 26 yo wr.

As for similarly talented, that’s just my opinion. I understand that is not the consensus. AJB has a better overall skill set, but in terms of upside if in similar situations I’d say they are about equal.

Edit: it’s not “oh any trade you could say this or that”, I’m saying when the players are similar as in this scenario, adding a 1st is stupid in my opinion. You don’t know the future, I don’t know the future, give me the side with the 1st

If you truly see their values as similar, I understand your stance. I just think you might be the biggest DK truther we out there if you believe they are even close to the same value.

The biggest difference is stabilty, to me. AJB has a stable QB situation, and an offensive staff wanting to feature him. DK doesn't have either.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

this is why picks aren't a great way to close gaps IMO. Their level of variance is too great to measure. I would trade AJB for DK + 2nd + and a player like Michael Wilson or Rashee Rice. I generally don't trade for players at their peak. I generally always trade down. For example if I had Metcalf I would prefer to trade for Tee Higgins + than trade Metcalf + for AJB.

This can be true, but it obviously helps if both sides are willing to share the risk/reward of picks. Feels to me like AJB and a mid to late 2nd for DK and a decent 1st would be about right…

This would come close to getting AJB from me unless "decent 1st" means "top 4".

Ignoring touchdowns since they’re volatile and both players score a decent amount of tds (it’s really only last year ajb had a big edge in td), ajb is only giving you around a 2-3 ppg advantage over DK with his extra yardage. I’m not paying a 1st for that.

Don't think it makes sense to just completely ignore TDs...also AJB only has 1 more TD than DK on the season. Really not as big of a difference as the extra 32 catches for 350 yards. Still about a 4.4 ppg gap if you ignore that 1 extra TD. Age more or less equal, moving from a mid WR2 to a mid WR1 is worth at LEAST a late 1st. Especially in leagues that don't have super deep lineups (e.g. 12 team start 8).

This year there is a disparity is catches, but historically they garner about the same in a season. Same with touchdowns? Historically they are similar. The only main difference is the yardage.

[hoos89]

True they are historically similar in catches and TDs for their entire careers, but I think it is relevant that AJB is now with Philly instead of Tennessee and DK is no longer catching balls from Russ (back when he was good).

AJB in 2 seasons with Philly (29 games) - 169/2660/18
Metcalf in 2 seasons with Geno (28 games) - 139/1860/12

The offense is worse this year than last. I guess if you really believe that last year was the real Geno then I can see thinking the catches are abnormally low, but even with Geno putting up top 10 fantasy numbers last season Metcalf only had 6 TDs so that might just be his new normal in his current situation.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

True they are historically similar in catches and TDs for their entire careers, but I think it is relevant that AJB is now with Philly instead of Tennessee and DK is no longer catching balls from Russ (back when he was good).

AJB in 2 seasons with Philly (29 games) - 169/2660/18
Metcalf in 2 seasons with Geno (28 games) - 139/1860/12

The offense is worse this year than last. I guess if you really believe that last year was the real Geno then I can see thinking the catches are abnormally low, but even with Geno putting up top 10 fantasy numbers last season Metcalf only had 6 TDs so that might just be his new normal in his current situation.

Yeah totally fair. Just not going to give 2 solid assets for 1 solid asset, given the talent levels imo.

[natjjohn]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

This is really peculiar thinking to me? What trade are you still thinking positively about if the key player you paid for gets significantly hurt. That’s gonna bring the excitement levels down pretty quickly.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I get it, but whenever I’m loading up to get 1 asset back I always ask myself if this player gets injured (let’s say acl) is this still a good deal. Or, doesn’t have to be a good deal but is it still a fair enough deal. And in this case, since I’d argue they’re similarly talented and similar in age, it’d be a really bad deal if AJb tore his acl next week.

This is really peculiar thinking to me? What trade are you still thinking positively about if the key player you paid for gets significantly hurt. That’s gonna bring the excitement levels down pretty quickly.

I stated Breece Hall as an example