When is the best time to rebuild?

[TheTroll]

This is the age old question. Do I stick it out or do I start early? Not sure there is a right or wrong answer but would love everyone’s opinions:

Team 1 below, I started my rebuild once I was barely making the playoffs. I’m still now in 9/10 place but feel 2024 will be great.

Team 2 I took over from a friend that passes away and was in full mode from the start. Came in last 2022 but the team now is in 2nd place and in good shape.

Regardless of my specifics, when is the proper time to rebuild? There is a feel/pulse on when to start it, but when you do, you need to be committed to it. If you meddle, you wind up in that middle zone of death

[Menace2010]

If you're not first, you're last.

Essentially the second you know you aren't going to meaningfully compete, you usually have an idea in the off season of where your team stands and if by week 5 or so those expectations are being met (e.g. by your record as well as by total points) then start making moves. Target teams that look good recordwise but that seem to be overperforming, like they may be 5-0 but have the lowest points scored, that's a prime target because their first could be perceived as late but end up mid to early.

Second reason why early is key, more teams think they are competing so you've got more buyers. If you wait to the trade deadline, only a handful of teams are still jockeying and they may not have assets you want/need (and any of those picks will be for sure late unlike the above scenario).

Third reason is that you beat other owners who will end up rebuilding to the punch. If a team is willing to part with a 1st to compete, they can only trade it once...

[Cameron Giles]

When there's a good draft class on the horizon and at the start of that season so you can accumulate picks before people pick up on it and become stingy with moving picks.

[ThirdWW]

For team one, after making the playoffs the first 8 of 9 years, I lightly started to rebuild in the 2021 season and went full last season. I say that for perspective as I’m in still in the process of my first rebuild. I went a year early as opposed to late, trading away the likes of Nuk, Godwin, KA13, Mixon and Kelce. I’ve also made a bunch of other trades along the ways.

Observations and lessons. It’s a bit more difficult than I anticipated. I believe I acquired high value young guys, but they’re really struggling. Not is all lost as if the season ended today, I’d have the 1.1 (would also own the 1.3). You not only need to get the value in the deal, but you gotta make sure those values hit. You’re gonna lose some trades bad, but you’ll win some too. You need a lot of dart throws, so try getting more assets back than you traded away.

All in all, it’s fun, but you will go through some dark days.

[CGW]

When I commit to rebuild I do it as soon as I possibly can. Usually well before the season starts. By the trade deadline in my leagues, there's usually 3-4 people who are racing to the bottom. I want to be way ahead of them by the time they decide to start selling pieces.

I don't worry much about draft class strength outside of the top one or two. It's really hard to know which classes will be good before hand, outside the occasional elite prospect.

[trc]

When there's a good draft class on the horizon and at the start of that season so you can accumulate picks before people pick up on it and become stingy with moving picks.

I find it harder getting proper value on vets before in season.

Though I agree it is best to be ahead of the curve.

[Shcritters]

While there are always examples of teams struggling early, barely making the playoffs, then going on a crazy run to win it all… I find that 90+% of the time you know which are the top 3-4 teams can win it all a couple weeks into the season. If you aren’t in that group then you should actively be trying to bottom out as quickly as possible. The worst spot to be is in the squishy middle who aren’t good enough to win but also not bad enough to get good picks.

Team 1 below has competed every year for the last 5 years. I keep trying to get into a rebuild but 1). Nobody will buy my aging players, and 2). I keep getting lucky later in drafts (AJB at 1.09, Musgrave st 1.12 for TE Super Prem, Flowers at 2.03) or making good trades to end up with earlier picks (Hall). I’m going to need to pull the trigger here on a rebuild SOON… like next year of the year after at the latest, and it is always better to be a year early on tearing it down than a year late.

[Space Cowboy]

If you’re not an annual playoff contender sell your vets and reboot. Football landscape moves fast.

[MacDaddy123]

I've always felt that the worst place to be is in the middle, so I try to decided as quickly as possible whether I am a contender or pretender,
Sometimes it is not so obvious, and takes longer than expected to find out.
Sometimes I know before the season starts where I stand.

Once you reach that point, and decide whether you are a legit contender or a pretender, it's best to move as quickly as possible in the new direction.
I'll either try to acquire a few aging assets, or sell off aging assets.

Sometimes both happen in the same season, like in one of my 12 team startups I did this summer, my team started out looking better than I expected due to progress of rookies like Addison and Downs.
After 4 weeks I was in 6th place, so I traded for Mostert and Amari from a team racing for the 1.01.
Then in week 5 the 1st place team crushed me, so I did nothing, as I fell into 7th place.
In week 6 I had another big week, and climbed back into 6th place, so I went out and bought Keenan Allen.
In week 7 I got crushed by the 2nd place team, and fell back to 7th.
That was when I finally realized that this was not my year.

Since then I have sold Mostert and Keenan Allen, and still looking to sell Amari too.

Obviously waiting so long in the game to go towards the rebuild side, I have almost no chance at a top 4 pick in the 2024 draft.
Since the sooner one knows what direction their team is headed, the better jump start they have in arriving at their destination.

There is no one definable point, IMO, just a process of reading the tea leaves as the season moves on.

[Cameron Giles]

When there's a good draft class on the horizon and at the start of that season so you can accumulate picks before people pick up on it and become stingy with moving picks.

I find it harder getting proper value on vets before in season.

Though I agree it is best to be ahead of the curve.

It can be tough, but you also risk impacting your own picks if you decide to keep them for full value too. Also, if they're older players, you may lose out on more value if they decline.

If you're getting insulting offers, then I get holding, but I wouldn't wait for homerun deals for each player.

[trc]

When there's a good draft class on the horizon and at the start of that season so you can accumulate picks before people pick up on it and become stingy with moving picks.

I find it harder getting proper value on vets before in season.

Though I agree it is best to be ahead of the curve.

It can be tough, but you also risk impacting your own picks if you decide to keep them for full value too. Also, if they're older players, you may lose out on more value if they decline.

If you're getting insulting offers, then I get holding, but I wouldn't wait for homerun deals for each player.

Absolutely agree - great example is Kupp on one of my rebuilders. I can’t get a single mid/late 1st for him. At least now. A mid/late 2nd is simply to cheap imo, but perhaps I need to bite it.

[tstafford]

For me it's in-season and the minute you know you aren't likely to make the playoffs.

It has to be in-season. In my leagues you aren't going to get full value for vets any other time. In-season the contenders are plugging holes and getting stronger, NFL players are getting hurt creating trade opportunities and the less active managers are participating fully. Or at least as fully as they ever will.