CJ Stroud versus the 2024 1.01

[MacDaddy123]

Just like topic says, I am trying to decide if I should trade my 1.01 for CJ Stroud.
I realize that Caleb abd Drake are higher ranking prospects, but Stroud has already proven himself at the NFL level.

12 team SF TEP PPR Start 11.

[TheTroll]

Is do you know the 1.01 already. Is your team that bad it’s guaranteed? Regardless, the value of 1.01 is only going to go up massively in the future. I would hold even with the prospect of getting Stroud who looks good. Who are your other QBs right now?

[tstafford]

I think the edge is to the 1.01 on value and Troll is right the pick will continue to climb.

I wouldn't fault someone for taking Stroud over the pick. Not that start-up ranks/ADP are the end all be all, but I would expect Stroud to go before either CW or MHJR in '24 start-ups unless he craters down the stretch (and no reason to think he will). The only knock I see on Stroud is that he doesn't run much - didn't in college either. Although he is totally capable of doing so - just ask UGA.

FWIW - I would be making more or less the same argument if you thought the pick was the 1.02. For the most part I believe CW should be the 1.01 but depending on team need and league settings I can see in some cases MHJR going 1.01. I'd for sure rather have Stroud than the 1.03.

[Gator Sens]

As mentioned previously, the 1.01 value gets wild in the offseason and is worth holding. Outside of a huge overpay, I would never move the 1.01 in season before the annual offseason frenzy begins. You are likely losing value moving the pick too early despite Stroud looking solid.

[tstafford]

Outside of a huge overpay, I would never move the 1.01 in season before the annual offseason frenzy begins.

Totally right. And we saw it last year - the Bijan value just kept climbing and climbing.

I believe that the 1.01 (and even the 1.02) are close to Bijan level value next draft season. CW and MHJR are generational talents just the same as Bijan is/was. The hype is going to be insane on both players. It already is really.

[Bulletproof]

I would happily take Stroud

[Menace2010]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

[MacDaddy123]

Interesting, as of right now the votes seem to be split right down the middle at 5/5.
Pretty much what I was expecting.

[TheTroll]

Interesting, as of right now the votes seem to be split right down the middle at 5/5.
Pretty much what I was expecting.

Happy to help!

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

100% this.

[TheTroll]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

100% this.

Not to be greedy here but you don’t think you could get CJ+ later for the confirmed 1.01?

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

100% this.

Not to be greedy here but you don’t think you could get CJ+ later for the confirmed 1.01?

I can’t imagine in SF that’s a possibility for most managers except for very specific scoring situations.

We have seen 50% of qbs bust even with high draft capital. Caleb has struggled lately and no one knows where he will end up. It could easily be a Trevor situation where a guy is supposedly all world and doesn’t play up to expectation/terrible management.

I’d call anyone crazy that’s trading CJ+ for 1.01. I just paid for CJ and I’d no way trade him for Caleb.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

Yeah. If your plan is to draft a qb, you might as well just go stroud and know you got a real one. If the plan is not to take a qb, then holding is fine too.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I've missed on WAY too many QB evaluations to not take the guy already performing at an exceptionally high level in the NFL. I vividly remember when Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were a sure thing...

Yeah. If your plan is to draft a qb, you might as well just go stroud and know you got a real one. If the plan is not to take a qb, then holding is fine too.

You think MHJ is 1.01 or meaning trade back from 1.01?

[tstafford]

You think MHJ is 1.01 or meaning trade back from 1.01?

Not that you asked me, but I'll chime in anyway.

Although I think CW will and should be the 1.01 in the majority of SF leagues, I think there will be times when MHJR is a reasonable selection at 1.01. Not all SF leagues and teams are the same.

I am in one where I anticipate having the 1.01 and will have a tough choice to make. There are a host of reasons that are specific to that team, but the biggest two are 1) I'm already strong at QB - stronger than any other position, 2) the league requires that eight position players are started in addition to QB/SF. That number of starters reduces the relative impact of the QBs on the weekly results. The fewer the starters, the more important the QBs become and vice versa.

Both MHJR and CW are generational prospects. While I get the conventional wisdom is to take the QB. I think MHJR will be a highly impactful player for many years. They are close enough IMO where it's fine to "get your guy" particularly if your team and/or league makes that more sensible.