Tank Dell - Never Not Open

[mild]

Size: used to be that small WRs struggled to deliver FF value. Moore, Atwell, Austin, etc, etc. I think NFL systems (and rules) have changed that. This seems pretty obvious and an adjustment we need to make in rookie rankings.

...

Any POVs on how Dell/Puka/Downs will change draft strategies?

This shift has already been happening before this year's class. Tank is just another (tremendous) data point. I think Devonta Smith was probably the last time that the size-ists truly took a stand on these boards... and since then, we've had successive drafts of a new breed of target hog WR that is taking over the league, and (most of us) have adjusted.

No longer is the alpha receiver strictly the domain of 220lb X-receivers (though they are still out there, and are still awesome to have in their own right) - many of these new-breed space receivers taking over the game are sub-200lb guys with outrageous skill, twitch, and body control - Devonta Smith (175lbs), Olave (187lbs), Garrett Wilson (188lbs) were all successive 1st rounders the last 3 years - and now Dell (165lbs) joins this illustrious list as the lightest hit yet to this degree of production.

The NFL agrees with you, too, and is getting better at spotting these guys, and being open to drafting lighter and lighter. Look no further than two of the more "keyed in" organisations selecting Jordan Addison (173lbs) and Zay Flowers (182lbs) in the first round this year - the lightest 1st round receiver hits yet.

[Jigga94]

Yeah this should make people 2nd guess writing off a WR because they are small (should have already happened but here we are), but we know that's not how reality works. People will still clamor over 6'3" 215 WR more than 5'10" 180. The truth is, that little WR won in college due to speed and most likely route running/separation. Meanwhile the bigger WR won on contested catches and just being taller/bigger than everyone in college. One translates to today's NFL and the other doesn't. Flowers, Addison, Dell, Downs all win with route running and quickness and they are arguably 4 of the top 5 or so rookie WR.

Idk how you plan on changing your draft strategy to hit on a guy like Puka though

[tstafford]

Idk how you plan on changing your draft strategy to hit on a guy like Puka though

Maybe I don't understand what you mean. But the heavy metrics guys had him nailed. I tend to be sort of anti-metric, but when it got late in drafts I figured why not?

[Jigga94]

Idk how you plan on changing your draft strategy to hit on a guy like Puka though

Maybe I don't understand what you mean. But the heavy metrics guys had him nailed. I tend to be sort of anti-metric, but when it got late in drafts I figured why not?

What heavy metrics? I've posted about it before but all his numbers are just average at best

[wickerkat1212]

Yeah, I used to avoid WRs that were shorter, smaller. I did love Downs, he had the top catch percentage coming out, IIRC, and I got him late 2nd/early 3rd in a few leagues. Totally whiffed on Dell and mostly missed Puka, only one share of him.

[tstafford]

Idk how you plan on changing your draft strategy to hit on a guy like Puka though

Maybe I don't understand what you mean. But the heavy metrics guys had him nailed. I tend to be sort of anti-metric, but when it got late in drafts I figured why not?

What heavy metrics? I've posted about it before but all his numbers are just average at best

I meant guys heavy in to metrics. One that I recall was Jacob Gibbs of SportsLine. He is all about the analytics and was constantly beating the drum for Puka. I took him largely based off of that (and Ryan McDowell). I have no idea what metrics Jacob was using to build the case. Like I said I'm more of an eye test, pedigree and situation guy.

[Jigga94]

Maybe I don't understand what you mean. But the heavy metrics guys had him nailed. I tend to be sort of anti-metric, but when it got late in drafts I figured why not?

What heavy metrics? I've posted about it before but all his numbers are just average at best

I meant guys heavy in to metrics. One that I recall was Jacob Gibbs of SportsLine. He is all about the analytics and was constantly beating the drum for Puka. I took him largely based off of that (and Ryan McDowell). I have no idea what metrics Jacob was using to build the case. Like I said I'm more of an eye test, pedigree and situation guy.

But Puka wasn't an analytics darling at all. He has the size, but that's it.

Transferred out of the PAC12 after 2 unsuccessful years at Washington. Broke out at BYU, but his numbers weren't eye popping either. 4.60 40. 10th percentile Agility score and 26th percentile Burst. Good size at 6'2" 200, but was average everywhere else including Speed Score. RAS was 5.1. He had good TS/DR, but nothing that stood out. I can't even remember watching him but know that I did.

If you have receipts from someone using numbers/analytics/metrics to pound the table for Puka prior to August, I'd love to see them. Him succeeding is more about his motivation and drive as well as situation (Stafford, Kupp injury) than it is about what he was coming out of college

[Cameron Giles]

What heavy metrics? I've posted about it before but all his numbers are just average at best

I meant guys heavy in to metrics. One that I recall was Jacob Gibbs of SportsLine. He is all about the analytics and was constantly beating the drum for Puka. I took him largely based off of that (and Ryan McDowell). I have no idea what metrics Jacob was using to build the case. Like I said I'm more of an eye test, pedigree and situation guy.

But Puka wasn't an analytics darling at all. He has the size, but that's it.

Transferred out of the PAC12 after 2 unsuccessful years at Washington. Broke out at BYU, but his numbers weren't eye popping either. 4.60 40. 10th percentile Agility score and 26th percentile Burst. Good size at 6'2" 200, but was average everywhere else including Speed Score. RAS was 5.1. He had good TS/DR, but nothing that stood out. I can't even remember watching him but know that I did.

If you have receipts from someone using numbers/analytics/metrics to pound the table for Puka prior to August, I'd love to see them. Him succeeding is more about his motivation and drive as well as situation (Stafford, Kupp injury) than it is about what he was coming out of college

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2023/5/6/ ... ua-profile

This was written in March. It's pretty accurate in hindsight. If I'm remembering correctly, the few things people kept hammering about Puka:

- Impressive YPRR against zone coverage
- YAC ability
- Early breakout (though misleading)
- Injuries clouded the evaluation
- Great high school career

I don't know if Puka is necessarily an analytics type of approach though. I think it's a combination of the above factors and McVay having an extremely friendly WR offense that matched Puka's strengths. Plus, he was literally getting 15-20 targets in games. It's really hard not to put up numbers when you get insane volume like that, though you of course have to credit him for getting the volume in the first place.

I don't think we quite realized to what degree that could play out. Plus, he was a 5th round pick.

Every now and then some things in fantasy just happen and there's not really a pinpoint explanation. You just tip your hat to the people who were ahead of it and keep perspective that this isn't something that will happen repeatedly.

[Jigga94]

I meant guys heavy in to metrics. One that I recall was Jacob Gibbs of SportsLine. He is all about the analytics and was constantly beating the drum for Puka. I took him largely based off of that (and Ryan McDowell). I have no idea what metrics Jacob was using to build the case. Like I said I'm more of an eye test, pedigree and situation guy.

But Puka wasn't an analytics darling at all. He has the size, but that's it.

Transferred out of the PAC12 after 2 unsuccessful years at Washington. Broke out at BYU, but his numbers weren't eye popping either. 4.60 40. 10th percentile Agility score and 26th percentile Burst. Good size at 6'2" 200, but was average everywhere else including Speed Score. RAS was 5.1. He had good TS/DR, but nothing that stood out. I can't even remember watching him but know that I did.

If you have receipts from someone using numbers/analytics/metrics to pound the table for Puka prior to August, I'd love to see them. Him succeeding is more about his motivation and drive as well as situation (Stafford, Kupp injury) than it is about what he was coming out of college

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2023/5/6/ ... ua-profile

This was written in March. It's pretty accurate in hindsight. If I'm remembering correctly, the few things people kept hammering about Puka:

- Impressive YPRR against zone coverage
- YAC ability
- Early breakout (though misleading)
- Injuries clouded the evaluation
- Great high school career

I don't know if Puka is necessarily an analytics type of approach though. I think it's a combination of the above factors and McVay having an extremely friendly WR offense that matched Puka's strengths. Plus, he was literally getting 15-20 targets in games. It's really hard not to put up numbers when you get insane volume like that, though you of course have to credit him for getting the volume in the first place.

I don't think we quite realized to what degree that could play out. Plus, he was a 5th round pick.

Every now and then some things in fantasy just happen and there's not really a pinpoint explanation. You just tip your hat to the people who were ahead of it and keep perspective that this isn't something that will happen repeatedly.

That's my whole point, we can't really gain anything by looking back on Puka. He's an outlier and there wasn't much to clue us in on him. Sure, some metrics were good, but every prospect has something good going for them.

[tstafford]

If you have receipts from someone using numbers/analytics/metrics to pound the table for Puka prior to August, I'd love to see them. Him succeeding is more about his motivation and drive as well as situation (Stafford, Kupp injury) than it is about what he was coming out of college

You'd have to go back an listen to CBS podcast Beyond the Box Score from the spring. All I remember is Jacob being high on Puka. Like I said I sort of tune out some of the deep metrics so I don't remember what was driving his enthusiasm. But he is a metrics/analytics guy so I suspect there is something there.

[wickerkat1212]

I heard chatter about Puka, but not enough to take him in the 1st or 2nd. Every league I was in he was 4th round or WW. Outlier, yeah, like Tom Brady or something, right?

[Anteaters]

I read hype about Puka targeting him as a sleeper choice.

Obviously there are two levels to this. All the "experts" more or less mention the same group of Top X guys to focus on drafting early in fantasy drafts. Neither Puka nor Dell were making any of those lists.

The other lists are Sleeper lists, Late Round Gems and stuff like that. That's where i saw Puka being mentioned repeatedly. Then I looked at a little tape and agreed he wasn't a bum with stone hands. Then I saw his landing spot and figured the situation was very favorable to him. Didn't end up getting any shares.

Dell was mentioned in a few of those Non-Stud look out lists. I watched some of his film and was blown away. I loved his landing spot and situation. I got a share of him and it's been great.

Neither of these guys were making the Top Stud early round list from fantasy gurus. Small school guys with perceived negative physical traits (slow for Puka, small for Dell) always start behind the eight ball with those lists. But there was enough smoke there to attract my attention, and when I bothered to take a look with my own eyes, I made a reminded to try to get both guys.

I think there was something replicable with the fantasy draft experience of both guys.

[wickerkat1212]

I read hype about Puka targeting him as a sleeper choice.

Obviously there are two levels to this. All the "experts" more or less mention the same group of Top X guys to focus on drafting early in fantasy drafts. Neither Puka nor Dell were making any of those lists.

The other lists are Sleeper lists, Late Round Gems and stuff like that. That's where i saw Puka being mentioned repeatedly. Then I looked at a little tape and agreed he wasn't a bum with stone hands. Then I saw his landing spot and figured the situation was very favorable to him. Didn't end up getting any shares.

Dell was mentioned in a few of those Non-Stud look out lists. I watched some of his film and was blown away. I loved his landing spot and situation. I got a share of him and it's been great.

Neither of these guys were making the Top Stud early round list from fantasy gurus. Small school guys with perceived negative physical traits (slow for Puka, small for Dell) always start behind the eight ball with those lists. But there was enough smoke there to attract my attention, and when I bothered to take a look with my own eyes, I made a reminded to try to get both guys.

I think there was something replicable with the fantasy draft experience of both guys.

Great thoughts here. Puka was on my sleepers list, too, and when it got late, I tried to grab shares. Got one. Dell I just ignored as being "too small." I should have watched the tape, like you did. I'll just add, if you like a guy, get that guy. Often we defer to lists and experts, when the film is showing us something different. Film, landing spot, off scheme, combine, etc...it all adds up.

[hoos89]

KTC's SF rankings now have Dell in the top 12 WRs and I don't think it's an example of KTC overreacting...heck if anything I could see compelling arguments to move him above Aiyuk, Smith, and maybe even Waddle. That said, he's only played against 3 top 10 WR fantasy defenses all season and has put up single digits in all 3. He's got a pretty tough schedule RoS: I'm interested to see how he and Stroud do against the Browns, Jets and Broncos (who have had a pretty shocking turnaround since week 5).

[gpaok]

KTC's SF rankings now have Dell in the top 12 WRs and I don't think it's an example of KTC overreacting...heck if anything I could see compelling arguments to move him above Aiyuk, Smith, and maybe even Waddle. That said, he's only played against 3 top 10 WR fantasy defenses all season and has put up single digits in all 3. He's got a pretty tough schedule RoS: I'm interested to see how he and Stroud do against the Browns, Jets and Broncos (who have had a pretty shocking turnaround since week 5).

Totally agree with you!!! This weekend will be a real test for both Stroud and Dell!