Is this a reasonable ask?

[Prison_Mike]

Team not in signature - 12tm PPR SF 0.5-TEP

A leaguemate of mine has been trying to swap his T-Law for my Kyler for weeks now, we haven't been able to reach an agreement. I view Kyler as a ceiling play that could take my contending team (5-2, 1st in PF and MaxPts) over the top. I view T-Law as expensive Dak Prescott.

This week he offered Lawrence + C.Watson for Kyler. I declined because I would never start Watson aside from the occasional bye/injury fill-in. I think Watson is a decent upside bench player, but isn't moving the needle for me to go from Kyler's ceiling to T-Law. (I know my Kyler/Lawrence stance probably goes against consensus)

I told him I'd only make the swap if I was adding a start-worthy player or upgrading at another position to supplement the ceiling I'd be sacrificing. I'm trying to find the angle here

Does this counter make sense? Is it reasonable?

Give: Kyler + Waddle + Jacobs + Warren
Get: TLaw + Hall + Hollywood + Watson

It's essentially a tier-down from Waddle to Hollywood/Watson, but an upgrade from Jacobs to Breece, and my team is built on RBs - (Saquon, Gibbs, Swift, Jacobs, Mostert, Warren, Edwards). Getting Waddle makes sense for him as he's in a bit of a retool and doesn't have a legit WR1, (I have Chase, Waddle, Keenan, Jakobi)

Thoughts?

Here's my team if it helps

Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 3Flex, 1SF
QB: Kyler, Dak, Cousins, Baker, AOC
RB: Saquon, Gibbs, Jacobs, Swift, Mostert, Warren, Gus
WR: Chase, Waddle, Keenan, Jakobi
TE: Njoku, Ertz, Woods

[murphysxm]

I don't covet Kyler, so would not be looking to pay this price

[Trevormortis]

Could just be me on this one, but I like (almost) all of the players you would be trading over what you'd be receiving. I'd pass.

[Prison_Mike]

Could just be me on this one, but I like (almost) all of the players you would be trading over what you'd be receiving. I'd pass.

I don't think it's just you. Any trade calc has this in my favor, but I don't agree. I think it's even at best, and I'm hesitant to even send the offer, hence the post lol

I think I'm probably overvaluing Hall, undervaluing Waddle, and attempting to lower my own bias to consensus on Kyler (who I prefer)

[Prison_Mike]

I don't covet Kyler, so would not be looking to pay this price

If you don't covet Kyler, doesn't that mean you would pay this price?
(I'd be sending Kyler)

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I think Tlaw is waaay safer than Kyler so would need nothing added. He will be playing in the league for a long time, though not at the level everyone might have hoped.

There has been some variance lately, imo. A lot of ETN tds have hidden Tlaws ceiling.

[Prison_Mike]

I think Tlaw is waaay safer than Kyler so would need nothing added. He will be playing in the league for a long time, though not at the level everyone might have hoped.

There has been some variance lately, imo. A lot of ETN tds have hidden Tlaws ceiling.

Yeah, this is usually the argument for those that prefer T-Law. By safer, I assume you mean some combination of health and longevity?

I think it's valid, I just prefer to chase elite ceilings in fantasy, even if that comes at the cost of longevity (and we don't know that it will)

[grooner]

So much going on in this trade lol. I will preface this by saying that I am generally way higher on young WRs over RBs, as they are so volatile season over season, where generally WRs are more consistent. This hasn't been the case so far this year, so maybe times are changing?

Tlaw >= Kyler imo (never been a huge fan of Kyler, thought he was quite overrated)
Jacobs << Hall (Hall seems like a top3 rb for at least the next few years)
Waddle > Watson (I think Watson can be a difference maker at the WR position, but still easily prefer waddle).
Warren < hollywood (Not a fan of hollywood, but not sure warren will ever be anything)

This is super close to me, and as you mentioned in a 1QB league Tlaw and Kyler are closer as Kyler definitely has the higher ceiling. You get a big upgrade at RB, but you downgrade at wr.

[Prison_Mike]

So much going on in this trade lol. I will preface this by saying that I am generally way higher on young WRs over RBs, as they are so volatile season over season, where generally WRs are more consistent. This hasn't been the case so far this year, so maybe times are changing?

Tlaw >= Kyler imo (never been a huge fan of Kyler, thought he was quite overrated)
Jacobs << Hall (Hall seems like a top3 rb for at least the next few years)
Waddle > Watson (I think Watson can be a difference maker at the WR position, but still easily prefer waddle).
Warren < hollywood (Not a fan of hollywood, but not sure warren will ever be anything)

This is super close to me, and as you mentioned in a 1QB league Tlaw and Kyler are closer as Kyler definitely has the higher ceiling. You get a big upgrade at RB, but you downgrade at wr.

Not 1QB, it's a superflex - I'm realizing that I need to stop putting "1QB" at the beginning of my starting requirement list, and "1SF" at the end. I'm just listing it in the order it appears on my roster, but it always confuses people in long-form threads like this haha

I've always been a bit fascinated by the "Kyler is overrated" crowd. I guess I can understand not being a huge fan of him, because he coms across as a bit of a doucher lol. But he's done nothing but produce since he came into the league. His rookie season was better than any season-long performance from Lawrence to date (from a fantasy ppg standpoint). In his next two seasons, he smashed with QB3/QB4 finishes of 22+ ppg, and then averaged 20ppg last year before injury.

I actually think the only underrated players in this deal are the Cardinals players.

Hollywood also a consistent producer, and +25% target share guy that you can get in RD8

But all in all, I see your point and I think the crux of this trade boils down to Waddle/Jacobs vs. Hall/Brown/Watson - (Warren is just an ancillary piece that I think helps balance out the deal given his contingent upside). I agree that RBs are volatile and Waddle is probably the better long-term bet.

[murphysxm]

I don't covet Kyler, so would not be looking to pay this price

If you don't covet Kyler, doesn't that mean you would pay this price?
(I'd be sending Kyler)

Yep, read the post wrong. I think you are getting the better QB and RB and Waddle doesn't have the sizzle to bridge the gap. I don't think it gets accepted as it stands.

[Gator Sens]

I think the offer can go either way. With Waddle involved combined with Jacobs, that covers the value gap in ways for Hall. I think the Lawrence side is the better side and although I do not like C. Watson, he may be the piece tipping the value too much.

[Prison_Mike]

I don't covet Kyler, so would not be looking to pay this price

If you don't covet Kyler, doesn't that mean you would pay this price?
(I'd be sending Kyler)

Yep, read the post wrong. I think you are getting the better QB and RB and Waddle doesn't have the sizzle to bridge the gap. I don't think it gets accepted as it stands.

Maybe, but this is based on some back forth. So I know which guys he's interested in for the most part. He was on the fence for a long time with Breece and Hollywood involved (eventually declined), and has now demonstrated that he'd add Watson on top of Lawrence without getting anything back. Waddle could swing it. We'll see

[Prison_Mike]

I think the offer can go either way. With Waddle involved combined with Jacobs, that covers the value gap in ways for Hall. I think the Lawrence side is the better side and although I do not like C. Watson, he may be the piece tipping the value too much.

I don't either, but the masses seem to.
At the very least, it sounds like the offer is within range of an adjustment

[dblj1199]

If you can make that counter offer happen I'd be all over that. Young stud rb's are really hard to come by, so if you can make this happen I'd do it. It's a downgrade at wr, but you have the rb depth now to make a move to address that. And if Hollywood is moved, which has been rumored, it could be a big upgrade for him.

[tsarpepe]

I like when people have their own, independent evals of players. This is what fantasy should be all about. If you're confident in your low take on T-Law, sure go ahead and make the deal. If you're right, you'll feel like thousand bucks later, and come here to tell us all how wrong we were in hyping T-Law!