Trey McBride: It’s Time to Take Notice

[StripesOfKC]

He was largely written off by the dynasty community after his rookie year and the first few games of year 2 when Ertz showed he still has some juice

But these last couple weeks he seems to have firmly taken the TE1 role—even before Ertz’ placement on the IR today

His underlying metrics look leaps and bounds ahead of his rookie season with a 2.04 YPRR, 70.1 PFF receiving grade and a target rate or percent of routes where a target is earned of 21.7% (2nd, 7th, 7th among TEs)

The lines from the last two weeks are not eye popping (4 for 62 and 3 for 29 on a combined 15-16% target share) but looking deeper and combined with his excellent prospect profile (high end athlete, produced early and with domination, draft capital) it is clear that he should be firmly back on the dynasty radar and has a real chance to increase his value in the next month or so

Especially considering the return of Kyler Murray being a rising tide for this whole offense (whatever you think of Kyler he is undoubtedly better for a passing game than Joshua Dobbs as much as the latter has defied expectations)

[jordanzs]

In a non TE premium league in which I have Kelce & Goedert already, I moved Evan Engram for McBride straight up back in May. I might've taken a value hit, but I think it'll help my team since Engram isn't sniffing my lineup, and Kelce can't play forever.....can he?

[Sriracha]

He was largely written off by the dynasty community after his rookie year and the first few games of year 2 when Ertz showed he still has some juice

But these last couple weeks he seems to have firmly taken the TE1 role—even before Ertz’ placement on the IR today

His underlying metrics look leaps and bounds ahead of his rookie season with a 2.04 YPRR, 70.1 PFF receiving grade and a target rate or percent of routes where a target is earned of 21.7% (2nd, 7th, 7th among TEs)

The lines from the last two weeks are not eye popping (4 for 62 and 3 for 29 on a combined 15-16% target share) but looking deeper and combined with his excellent prospect profile (high end athlete, produced early and with domination, draft capital) it is clear that he should be firmly back on the dynasty radar and has a real chance to increase his value in the next month or so

Especially considering the return of Kyler Murray being a rising tide for this whole offense (whatever you think of Kyler he is undoubtedly better for a passing game than Joshua Dobbs as much as the latter has defied expectations)

Solid sleeper right now.

But I'm being forced to recoginze that so much of TE production is situation based even for the talented receiving TEs.

Noah Fant leads all TEs in YPRR and is 2nd among TEs behind only Kelce in PFF receiving grade. Doesn't matter because SEA is a run oriented attack and he's not the best blocker + he's competing for targets with 2 top 20 WRs.

Marquise Brown is solid target competition so the deciding factor on if he truly fires is dependent on how well Michael Wilson meshes with Murray down the stretch or if Murray becomes a Kirk Cousins level of volume passer.

Wilson is a rookie who's yet to demand a substantial target share so I like the McBride bet for this season.

[Prison_Mike]

He was largely written off by the dynasty community after his rookie year and the first few games of year 2 when Ertz showed he still has some juice

But these last couple weeks he seems to have firmly taken the TE1 role—even before Ertz’ placement on the IR today

His underlying metrics look leaps and bounds ahead of his rookie season with a 2.04 YPRR, 70.1 PFF receiving grade and a target rate or percent of routes where a target is earned of 21.7% (2nd, 7th, 7th among TEs)

The lines from the last two weeks are not eye popping (4 for 62 and 3 for 29 on a combined 15-16% target share) but looking deeper and combined with his excellent prospect profile (high end athlete, produced early and with domination, draft capital) it is clear that he should be firmly back on the dynasty radar and has a real chance to increase his value in the next month or so

Especially considering the return of Kyler Murray being a rising tide for this whole offense (whatever you think of Kyler he is undoubtedly better for a passing game than Joshua Dobbs as much as the latter has defied expectations)

Solid sleeper right now.

But I'm being forced to recoginze that so much of TE production is situation based even for the talented receiving TEs.

Noah Fant leads all TEs in YPRR and is 2nd among TEs behind only Kelce in PFF receiving grade. Doesn't matter because SEA is a run oriented attack and he's not the best blocker + he's competing for targets with 2 top 20 WRs.

Marquise Brown is solid target competition so the deciding factor on if he truly fires is dependent on how well Michael Wilson meshes with Murray down the stretch or if Murray becomes a Kirk Cousins level of volume passer.

Wilson is a rookie who's yet to demand a substantial target share so I like the McBride bet for this season.

What I'm hearing is buy Noah Fant and hope he gets out from under Pete Carroll one day

[Sriracha]

What I'm hearing is buy Noah Fant and hope he gets out from under Pete Carroll one day

He is a FA after this season...

[frerichs5]

What I'm hearing is buy Noah Fant and hope he gets out from under Pete Carroll one day

He is a FA after this season...

Yep. I’m hoping he has an Evan Engram like revival if he can get to a team that might actually use his athleticism. But I’m from Iowa and have been a homer since his college days, so there’s that too. Lol

But back to McBride, I like him coming out last year. Hopefully he takes advantage of this opportunity.

[Prison_Mike]

What I'm hearing is buy Noah Fant and hope he gets out from under Pete Carroll one day

He is a FA after this season...

Yep. I’m hoping he has an Evan Engram like revival if he can get to a team that might actually use his athleticism. But I’m from Iowa and have been a homer since his college days, so there’s that too. Lol

But back to McBride, I like him coming out last year. Hopefully he takes advantage of this opportunity.

Same. Loved Fant as a prospect. I’m afraid I probably won’t be able to buy outside of the one league I’ve got him (Team 3). The same guy has him for my Team 1 & 2 leagues and isn’t likely to let him go

I liked McBride’s profile too. We were probably too quick to bury him

[Shcritters]

Took him late 1st in a TE Prem rookie draft last year and was scared at the end of year 1. But looking forward… Brown is likely out of town next year, there’s a chance they end up with Caleb, and if they do he’s likely 2nd in that passing offense, at worst 3rd (if they end up keeping Kyler and take Harrison).

He’s got significant upside… he’s just been capped by Ertz and used as a blocker (which he’s good at) year 1. The upside is there for a back-end top 12 dynasty TE.

[FantasyFreak]

I almost started him today in heavy TEP. It looks like it's happening.

[ButtFumbleCity]

Looks like a beast out there.

[Shcritters]

He could really be a thing. The question is if it continues when Kyler comes back.

[StripesOfKC]

He could really be a thing. The question is if it continues when Kyler comes back.

I mean whatever you think of Kyler him replacing Josh Dobbs should only be considered a win for anything related to the Cardinals passing attack

[FantasyFreak]

He could really be a thing. The question is if it continues when Kyler comes back.

I mean whatever you think of Kyler him replacing Josh Dobbs should only be considered a win for anything related to the Cardinals passing attack

I agree. I could be wrong, but QB's that run typically hurt RB's the most. Scrambling, you still look to throw, but it immediately the scramble usually takes away the RB in the flat, the TE just down the field is usually still an option, and often the first one free.

However, your main point, of a better QB creating a better offense as a whole, completely has merit, too.

McBride looks like he can hang, and TE is such a crap shoot, the fact he immediately stepped in and became a target hog vs the number 2 D vs TE's (10/14), once getting the full time role, given his profile, draft capital etc......this is obviously dots being connected, more than some random game of a day 3 TE going off due to injury, IMO.

[hoos89]

He was trending a up (a bit) prior to the Ertz injury too: McBride went from 7 total targets in weeks 1-4 to 14 in weeks 5-7 (versus Ertz going from 30 in weeks 1-4 to 13 in weeks 5-7). The fact that McBride's role was already expanding and then he had a blowup week against a good defense the first opportunity after an injury is a very good sign in my view. Top 10 dynasty TE in my book.

I do think it's a fair question how he will do with Kyler back. Last year TEs got ~6.5 targets/game and this year they're getting nearly 10. Nuk leaving might play a part there, though. Also McBride's play may demand more targets going forward compared to Ertz + McBride last season. We'll see.

[Jigga94]

Nailed it