2023 Year End Update Post
2022 Report
2022 Year End Update Post
2021 Report
2021 Year End Update Post
2020 Report
2020 Year End Update Post
PFF Grade Analysis
Historical Rookie Open Scores
Hit Rate via NFL Draft Capital
Studs emerging from 27-46ypg group analysis
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- Just as everyone predicted, Puka Nacua is a certified G. I'm sure the stats will come down with Kupp returning, but he's done so much already there's basically no way he doesn't make the upper portion of the list unless he suffers an injury.
- Just a little reminder, hit rates plummet when players don't play most (9+ games) of their rookie season, for whatever reason.
- I feel like there's more wildly productive rookie WR's early this year than most other years. I'm suspecting some of them will fall off, and maybe others will rise up to take their place? We'll see...
- It's still really early, so expect some changes to come with the sample size being on the smaller side. That said, things are not looking that great for JSN and QJ right now... JSN would need to average 57 YPG just to make it to the lowest tier, and QJ would need to average 58 YPG. JSN has nearly double (20) the targets as Mims (11), but only a fraction of the production. Targets are not really the issue with JSN, he's had as many or more targets than Mims, Wilson or Addison.
- The TE indicators was new last year and identified Chig Onkonkwo. We'll see how that pans out. But Chig is probably a decent buy low right now as that entire offense seems to be in the tank. But situations can change fast in the NFL.
- At the bottom is the TE report. Things could change but Sam LaPorta is crushing it right now and seems like a solid buy if his owner doesn't realize what they have in him.
- I hope you bought low on Aiyuk last year.
- I feel like I have to note that Marvin Mims snap percentage and target total is extremely low. It's possible those things continue to rise, and he continues to be equally if not more productive. But it's also possible they stay the same and he doesn't connect on those big explosive plays at the same rate (which would become a problem).
edit: I should add, I made the case for Mingo being a better prospect than most people realize HERE. He's had a rough start (in part b/c of Bryce Young's rough start), but he could make for a good buy low if a disgruntled owner is just giving him away.
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Update for Week 4
67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Puka Nacua [125]
57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Tank Dell [66]
Zay Flowers [61]
Marvin Mims [60]
Michael Wilson [59]
47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Jayden Reed [50]
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Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Jordan Addison [46]
Josh Downs [39]
Rashee Rice [35]
Demario Douglas [29]
Jalin Hyatt [24]
Jonathan Mingo [21]
Dontayvion Wicks [21]
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [15]
Quentin Johnston [11]
Trey Palmer [10]
+ 12 others...
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*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
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This is overall hit rate by draft round for WR from 1995-2019.
Hit rate
-- 26% -- 1st round WRs [25 of 95]
-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs [13 of 113]
-- 11% -- 3rd round WRs [12 of 105]
--- 2% -- 4th round WRs [2 of 105]
--- 3% -- 5th round WRs [3 of 87]
--- 1% -- 6th round WRs [1 of 94]
--- 4% -- 7th round WRs [4 of 100]
- Looks like there are really 3 main tiers [Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3], and the draft round order within a tier doesn't really make a difference in terms of getting a stud.
- It should be noted that there are several 2nd round WRs that could still be hits and elevate the 2nd round hit percentage. AJB, Deebo, DK, Sutton, and Juju would be the top names. Also several 3rd round WRs such as McLaurin, Kupp, Godwin, and Diontae Johnson. The only realistic names to reach "stud" status remaining from Round 1 would be Mike Williams, Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley.
*** Writing this little note on 10/04/2023 - I need to go through and update all the hits/busts/percentages, but they should all be pretty similar to what is above.
*A "hit" is 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
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Rookie TE Report
Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+
These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.
Sam LaPorta is checking all the boxes and looks like a future stud at the position.
Luke Musgrave checks YPG (31) and Catch % (75%), but he is just falling short on YPT (7.8). He's a fast, explosive player, so I'd imagine he will eventually clear the YPT mark (albeit it could be at the expense of Catch %, we'll see).
Dalton Kincaid checks YPG (24.8) and Catch % (88%), but is falling short on YPT (5.8). He's been trending down in snap percentage, and when they cut to the Bills games on redzone I see Knox getting a lot of love from Josh Allen. Although he looked like a natural receiver in college, his explosiveness was hard to judge and he didn't complete any athletic testing before the draft. This is a tough one to gauge.
Andrew Ogletree checks YPG (26) and YPT (9.9), but is falling short on catch percentage (62.5%).
Will Mallory also is checking all the boxes but has only played in 1 game. From what I am reading he's been a healthy inactive.
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Another interesting nugget where you can see if a player is trending up or down;
Trending Up
Trey Palmer
Jayden Reed
Rashee Rice
Trending Down
Dalton Kincaid
_______________________________________Jigga94 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:05 pm Rookie Snap Share % Week 1-4
*left early/injury
WR
Flowers - 84, 77, 93, 98
Puka - 78, 86, 96, 95
Palmer - 34, 49, 72, 75
Downs - 79, 75, 80, 73
Wilson - 90, 43, 67, 70
Dell - 48, 79, 61, 70
Reed - 53, 56, 66, 67
Addison - 56, 69, 71, 58
Mingo - 87, 98, 33*, 0*
Wicks - 62, 50, 66, 58
JSN - 59, 56, 44, mnf
QJ - 27, 15, 24, 51
Rice - 31, 18, 51, 46
Mims - 27, 24, 24, 35
Hyatt - 36, 21, 32, mnf
Douglas- 41, 8, 24, 33
Boutte - 69, 0, 0, 0
TE
Laporta - 83, 82, 74, 80
Musgrave - 75, 88, 86, 25*
Kincaid - 80, 60, 51, 52
Schoonmaker- 28, 36, 23, 56
Mayer - 49, 40, 47, 51
Washington- 38, 48, 47, 42
, and don't usually hold one in the offseason
