Rookie WR Production 2023

[CGW]

The issue I have with Downs is he put this up with Minshew at QB and things will probably be much worse for him in the near future with AR as his QB

I thought he had good splits with AR too? I know it was early on in his rookie year too though

Such a small sample size, it's hard to tell. Wish we could have seen more than just one full game from AR.

[Bronco Billy]

Just did a quick on the active top xx active players.
Initially it seems like ideally a target share as a rookie should be above 20%.
Some didn't exceed that threshold, but still got success:
Aiyuk (17 %), Davanta Adams (12 %), Lamb (18 %), Diggs (19 %), Kupp (18 %)

The players above 20%
Chase, JJ, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra, Olave Waddle, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, DK, Evans, London.

Perhaps the 20% threshold is to high.. 18 % could be the sweet spot.

I'm fully aware, that I haven't done the opposite research of who exceeded the 20 % (or 18 %) in their rookie seasons and still ended up busting.

That’s so important. Until we get the full data set any conclusions are unsound.

[wickerkat1212]

Thanks, DD. This is a GREAT thread. Appreciate all of your hard work.

[grooner]

I echo all the thank yous here, love this thread (and the RB report).

[Dynasty DeLorean]

DD - I really appreciate what you have been doing all through the season (and prior seasons), absolutely top class!


I can't recall if you have been investigating if target share in a rookie season has any correlation to future success?
My thought is that if a rookie has a high target share, then that rookie is trusted by the team and most likely will continue to get opportunities/targets in future as well.
Reason I ask is that someone a few pages back compared JSN to Lamb in terms of what they accomplished as a rookie and I did a napkin calculation that both of them had a 18% target share in their rookie season. I'm in now way saying JSN=Lamb, just got me curious.

Full year target share for other rookies this year:
Flowers 22% (team leader)
Reed 17 % (team leader with Doubs)
Wicks 10%
Douglas 14 % (team leader)
Puka 29 % (team leader)
Dell 13 % (quite high with only 11 games played)
Rice 17%
Downs 18 %

Hmm, I have not. I would just assume a higher target share = more production, and thus it'd show up on the ypg. But I haven't looked into it.

According to playerprofiler, Dell's target share is 20% (I'm guessing they didn't count the games he didn't play in). It also shows Flowers target share as 24%.

Listing some busts in the 47+ grouping
Claypool 16.7%
Elijah Moore 18.6%
Darius Slayton 16.6%
Eddie Royal 22.4%
Sammy Watkins 22.4%
Martavis Bryant 12.7%

I only looked up a few. Kind of hard to say. Would really need to look them up for every player and then see. Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from but maybe different sites have different numbers, so that could be confusing. Could be something there? Hard to tell.

Edit: to address the lamb/JSN more specifically, playerprofiler has JSN at 17% and Lamb at 18%

[trc]

Ah yeah, I just did the lazy calculation of taking full year stats (napkin calculation )
I don't have access to on per game data.

But still ran the numbers (pulled from pro-football-reference), even though there is a flaw in it, that it doesn't account for injuries or similar.
And combined with that YPG in rookie season and your definition of Good and Stud, It really doesn't seem like target share does anything at all. So a big nothing burger

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Ah yeah, I just did the lazy calculation of taking full year stats (napkin calculation )
I don't have access to on per game data.

But still ran the numbers (pulled from pro-football-reference), even though there is a flaw in it, that it doesn't account for injuries or similar.
And combined with that YPG in rookie season and your definition of Good and Stud, It really doesn't seem like target share does anything at all. So a big nothing burger

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

I still have to crunch some more numbers but this seems to explain a piece of it
viewtopic.php?p=2228773#p2228773

viewtopic.php?p=2221859#p2221859

viewtopic.php?p=2221855#p2221855

[Sriracha]

Ah yeah, I just did the lazy calculation of taking full year stats (napkin calculation )
I don't have access to on per game data.

But still ran the numbers (pulled from pro-football-reference), even though there is a flaw in it, that it doesn't account for injuries or similar.
And combined with that YPG in rookie season and your definition of Good and Stud, It really doesn't seem like target share does anything at all. So a big nothing burger

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

Appreciate all of you guys doing the heavy lifting here, but I'm curious if target rate would yield better results?

Would make sense imo given that a lot of rookies start out the year with minimal snap share but excel when they're on the field. Rashee Rice for instance has held a pretty steady elite target rate despite only seeing his target share rise in the back half of the season (due to increased snaps).

[trc]

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

I still have to crunch some more numbers but this seems to explain a piece of it

viewtopic.php?p=2221859#p2221859

Looking at the 27-37 group.
From 2008 and onwards the only hits were (from my list):
Michael Floyd
Godwin
Edelman
Emmanuel Sanders
Demaryius Thomas
Davante Adams

Small group, and I think they had something in common.
However, you just can't say that because there were stiff target competition for a rookie, then that player will emerge later in his career.
I guess for that group and below, raw data isn't sufficient. You need to evaluate the entire setting of the team and said rookies talent, before jumping to conclusions.


For the link.
I believe you could add Godwin to this as well. Mike Evans and Djax were on the team his rookie year.
Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown as well (though they are in your last bucket, <27 YPG)

[trc]

Ah yeah, I just did the lazy calculation of taking full year stats (napkin calculation )
I don't have access to on per game data.

But still ran the numbers (pulled from pro-football-reference), even though there is a flaw in it, that it doesn't account for injuries or similar.
And combined with that YPG in rookie season and your definition of Good and Stud, It really doesn't seem like target share does anything at all. So a big nothing burger

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

Appreciate all of you guys doing the heavy lifting here, but I'm curious if target rate would yield better results?

Would make sense imo given that a lot of rookies start out the year with minimal snap share but excel when they're on the field. Rashee Rice for instance has held a pretty steady elite target rate despite only seeing his target share rise in the back half of the season (due to increased snaps).

Isn't target share and target rate the same?
Or are you thinking of target rate, when on the field?

[Sriracha]

Ah yeah, I just did the lazy calculation of taking full year stats (napkin calculation )
I don't have access to on per game data.

But still ran the numbers (pulled from pro-football-reference), even though there is a flaw in it, that it doesn't account for injuries or similar.
And combined with that YPG in rookie season and your definition of Good and Stud, It really doesn't seem like target share does anything at all. So a big nothing burger

However I have looked at the list of good and stud below 47 ypg threshold.
My initial assumption is that most of these walked into a crowded receiving room with established veterans, is that completely off?

Appreciate all of you guys doing the heavy lifting here, but I'm curious if target rate would yield better results?

Would make sense imo given that a lot of rookies start out the year with minimal snap share but excel when they're on the field. Rashee Rice for instance has held a pretty steady elite target rate despite only seeing his target share rise in the back half of the season (due to increased snaps).

Isn't target share and target rate the same?
Or are you thinking of target rate, when on the field?

Target share is how much of the team's total targets they've garnered; Target rate is their target share when they're on the field.

In the example I gave, Rashee Rice's target rate is 27.4% 11th in the NFL; While his target share is 17.9% 45th in the NFL

[Ruggenater]

Appreciate all of you guys doing the heavy lifting here, but I'm curious if target rate would yield better results?

Would make sense imo given that a lot of rookies start out the year with minimal snap share but excel when they're on the field. Rashee Rice for instance has held a pretty steady elite target rate despite only seeing his target share rise in the back half of the season (due to increased snaps).

Isn't target share and target rate the same?
Or are you thinking of target rate, when on the field?

Target share is how much of the team's total targets they've garnered; Target rate is their target share when they're on the field.

In the example I gave, Rashee Rice's target rate is 27.4% 11th in the NFL; While his target share is 17.9% 45th in the NFL

You might find this helpful:
https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/re ... e-run-tprr

The site also has targets per route run percentages that you can look through in the “utilization” section of the memo. In addition to the top receivers you’d expect to see high on the list, there’s also a bunch of gadget players (Kadarius Toney). Might be useful to pair this with DD’s yards per game averages to weed out the guys that get targeted a lot on a really small percent of snaps, but also might not add anything (clearly, I didn’t do extra legwork).

[yinzername]

So based off opinions and metrics in this thread, what do you folsk think about this trade for my rebuild in sig:

give: Tillman and the 3.07
get: Chig-O and the 4.07

[Mike11]

So based off opinions and metrics in this thread, what do you folsk think about this trade for my rebuild in sig:

give: Tillman and the 3.07
get: Chig-O and the 4.07

Team advice... But pass

[Sriracha]

Isn't target share and target rate the same?
Or are you thinking of target rate, when on the field?

Target share is how much of the team's total targets they've garnered; Target rate is their target share when they're on the field.

In the example I gave, Rashee Rice's target rate is 27.4% 11th in the NFL; While his target share is 17.9% 45th in the NFL

You might find this helpful:
https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/re ... e-run-tprr

The site also has targets per route run percentages that you can look through in the “utilization” section of the memo. In addition to the top receivers you’d expect to see high on the list, there’s also a bunch of gadget players (Kadarius Toney). Might be useful to pair this with DD’s yards per game averages to weed out the guys that get targeted a lot on a really small percent of snaps, but also might not add anything (clearly, I didn’t do extra legwork).

Yeah, TPRR is pretty useful in isolation. I was also wondering if it would improve results here but I don't have access to the data (if anyone has a spare DB to point me to though I'd be more than happy to help)