Bryce Young

[Anteaters]

no shite sherlock!

well, young isn't the new drew brees (though brees didn't start too hot either, but i can't remember him being that bad).
as for selling, i wouldn't right now. he's coming off three straight completely garbage games, might as well wait a few more good-ish games, reich fired and some preseason hype at this point. sell low is one thing, sell lowest is another.

Probably running into some disagreement on what his lowest is. It can definitely get lower (or higher)

well, sure, when you hit the bottom, you can always start digging.

Ask Lance owners if it's possible to hold too long by waiting waiting waiting for a slight rebound to a higher price.

That's not to say Bryce is absolutely a lost cause. However, if an owner has lost faith in Bryce and is holding (instead of trading now) waiting for a rebound in value before trading ... waiting longer may only result in the price to fall further and further down if Bryce never shows improvement.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Probably running into some disagreement on what his lowest is. It can definitely get lower (or higher)

well, sure, when you hit the bottom, you can always start digging.

Ask Lance owners if it's possible to hold too long by waiting waiting waiting for a slight rebound to a higher price.

That's not to say Bryce is absolutely a lost cause. However, if an owner has lost faith in Bryce and is holding (instead of trading now) waiting for a rebound in value before trading ... waiting longer may only result in the price to fall further and further down if Bryce never shows improvement.

Right, and the thing is, let's say selling "low" right now is a late-1st. Even if Bryce rebounds and plays well, he's basically never going to be worth more than that unless he becomes a complete stud. Goff rebounded and is playing well and he's still only worth a late-1st. Holding onto Bryce just makes no sense if you can get that kind of return. Proven QB's in superflex are always available for a late-1st in most leagues. Obviously there is some league difference and timing involved, but players like Goff, Purdy, and others can potentially be had for a late-1st.

[Bronco Billy]

, but players like Goff, Purdy, and others can potentially be had for a late-1st.

Wait. What?

[Anteaters]

well, sure, when you hit the bottom, you can always start digging.

Ask Lance owners if it's possible to hold too long by waiting waiting waiting for a slight rebound to a higher price.

That's not to say Bryce is absolutely a lost cause. However, if an owner has lost faith in Bryce and is holding (instead of trading now) waiting for a rebound in value before trading ... waiting longer may only result in the price to fall further and further down if Bryce never shows improvement.

Right, and the thing is, let's say selling "low" right now is a late-1st. Even if Bryce rebounds and plays well, he's basically never going to be worth more than that unless he becomes a complete stud. Goff rebounded and is playing well and he's still only worth a late-1st. Holding onto Bryce just makes no sense if you can get that kind of return. Proven QB's in superflex are always available for a late-1st in most leagues. Obviously there is some league difference and timing involved, but players like Goff, Purdy, and others can potentially be had for a late-1st.

The bolded is where I think some people get hung up on.

The feeling one gets when trading a dynasty 1.01-1.02 draft pick is you're trading a stud and you should get at least two 1sts back. But we've seen enough for some people to decide Bryce Young is no fantasy stud. He might turn out to be a good real life QB for Carolina, but he hasn't shown anything that says he's going to be a T12QB for fantasy. Not to mention the obvious fact that he could bust altogether.

I get holding, but in this case the holders should acknowledge it's basically sell now for a 1st or hold till he's worth much less. I have no problem with holding till a player is a complete bonafied bust. I just don't want the guys who want to get out to wait too late.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

, but players like Goff, Purdy, and others can potentially be had for a late-1st.

Wait. What?

I just traded a late-1st for him in a league to a rebuilder. Not every league, but these deals do happen. Gotta keep your eyes open. Cousins was a late-1st for years too. Stafford. Russ.

[Sriracha]

I'd disagree. Bryce has already missed one game and his size has definitely been an issue with evading tackles in the NFL. Bryce isn't the most athletic QB, doesn't have the strongest arm and while his accuracy is a strength of his he isn't on the same level as Drew Brees or even Tua in terms of ball placement. A big part of what got him drafted at the 1.01 were the improvisational skills he showed when he broke the pocket in college. In the NFL those plays are becoming harder and harder to come by because he's unable to break free from arm tackles and the defenders are way more athletic meaning he's a lot less elusive. The fact that he's largely looked to be unable to excel outside of structure is a big reason he's failed to live up to expectations.

As for blaming the system and WRs for his inability to be productive.. these are the same players and system that Andy Dalton ran much more effectively in one game than Bryce has in any game this season.

I'm not saying that these are an all-star group of receivers but Adam Thielen is a multi year pro-bowler and DJ Chark has a 1,000 yard season under his belt. Thielen is 33 years old and is coming off a down injury plagued year but he's still playing at a high level with a 79.6 PFF grade. For reference, the highest graded Packers receiver is Doubs at a 70.6

There have been rookie QBs that have done more with less and a lot of them have proven to not be the answer over time. Marcus Mariota with Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham as his top options and Baker Mayfield with Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Rashard Higgins for instance. In both cases they were eventually found out by defenses and were unable to overcome their deficIiencies... In Bryce's case he hasn't even had the initial break through period.

So while he could definitely improve there's also the chance he falls in line with other 1.01 busts like Jameis Winston and David Carr and I'd blame no one for trying to re-roll next year at a slight loss instead of hoping he rights the ship as an extreme size outlier.

I don't see how anyone's who following all the injuries to starting QBs this year could say that Bryce Young's ankle injury is directly related to his size. It just seems like low-hanging fruit. Obviously it's better to be 6'3 than 5'10, but ankles injuries happen regardless of size in the NFL.

I disagree with what you think made Bryce Young the #1 pick. It wasn't his improvision, though that certainly was a strength of his. Bryce Young's pocket instincts, advanced ability to speed through progressions, and his ability to throw players open made him look like a special talent in the SEC. He was a very structured QB at Alabama and he was elite at executing it. The feather in his cap was simply being able to improvise when it did break down. On top of it, he showed elite football IQ and simply had a knack for making the right decision consistently. I'm not going to compare his ball placement to Drew Brees the NFL player or Tua the NFL player, but it definitely was comparable to Tua the prospect. Brees was a 2nd rounder in a different era of football, so I think that's a difficult conversation.

Young isn't failing because he can't execute outside the structure. He's failing, because he is not getting a chance to play the position. He's been sacked 4+ times in 6 of his 9 games. If you go back and watch games, he's rarely even able to get to his first read without pressure in the pocket. How does any of that give you an ability to execute in or outside the structure? You're practically a sitting duck.

The Andy Dalton angle is so overblown. Dalton is a 13-year veteran. There are absolutely things he should know how to do compared to a rookie who had only made two starts to that point. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Remind me what those offensive lines in Tennessee and Cleveland looked like when those players were doing "a lot with less". Carolina has one of the worst offensive lines in the league in terms of pass protection. You can break down what Thielen and Chark have done in the past, but Panthers WRs are objectively not getting open this season. Thielen is doing better than the rest of them, but it's still a 33-year-old Adam Thielen. Their offense rarely can get anything vertical, because the line can't protect that long for a play to develop. So, the entire offense is compressed into the short level of the field.

I think there's valid criticism for Young, as there is for any rookie QB. But, right now he's in a situation where they can't even give him a chance. Like I said, his best passes this season are largely under pressure throws. The degree of difficulty is too high to develop someone in.

Of course the off-schedule plays can't be all that you do and he was also good within structure at Alabama; However it was the assumed separating factor between him and Stroud and is likely what won him over CAR's owner.

He's failing for a lot of reasons but it is a major factor in his inability to elevate this offense like many expected coming into the year.

The TEN O-line got Mariota killed was the prevailing narrative that off-season. Amy Adams Strunk fired the coach for "not protecting" Marcus. Hired Mike Mularkey because he was committed to his "exotic smash mouth" football that emphasized the running game in an effort to keep him healthy. Then they drafted Jack Conklin in the 1st the next year + signed Ben Jones to a 4 year contract.

You can point to a lot of excuses for any player failing and the O-line is a common scape goat. The fact of the matter is that Bryce isn't getting it done and came into the NFL as an extreme size outlier (while you're focusing on his height that isn't nearly as big of an issue as his weight, imo).

Generally speaking when an outlier prospect fails his rookie year it's not a good sign and even if he does rebound he has a long way to go before he's worth more than a mid 1st. Jared Goff was mentioned as a possible success case for him and he's having a career year this season... he's still QB16 in ppg

[FantasyFreak]

There's just so little upside for FF.

This isn't pretty.

https://twitter.com/KevinCole___/status ... 55/photo/1

[Cameron Giles]

Of course the off-schedule plays can't be all that you do and he was also good within structure at Alabama; However it was the assumed separating factor between him and Stroud and is likely what won him over CAR's owner.

He's failing for a lot of reasons but it is a major factor in his inability to elevate this offense like many expected coming into the year.

The TEN O-line got Mariota killed was the prevailing narrative that off-season. Amy Adams Strunk fired the coach for "not protecting" Marcus. Hired Mike Mularkey because he was committed to his "exotic smash mouth" football that emphasized the running game in an effort to keep him healthy. Then they drafted Jack Conklin in the 1st the next year + signed Ben Jones to a 4 year contract.

You can point to a lot of excuses for any player failing and the O-line is a common scape goat. The fact of the matter is that Bryce isn't getting it done and came into the NFL as an extreme size outlier (while you're focusing on his height that isn't nearly as big of an issue as his weight, imo).

Generally speaking when an outlier prospect fails his rookie year it's not a good sign and even if he does rebound he has a long way to go before he's worth more than a mid 1st. Jared Goff was mentioned as a possible success case for him and he's having a career year this season... he's still QB16 in ppg

I just don't understand how this is a realistic expectation. At one point in the Dallas game yesterday, Young had 15 pressures and 5 sacks on 33 dropbacks. What are you supposed to be elevating when you are getting pressured on damn near half of your dropbacks? Dallas finished with 23 pressures and 7 sacks yesterday.

Pass block grades from yesterday:

LT - 23.6
LG - 10.7
C - 22.5
RG - 11.5
RT - 72.6

Figure it out, Bryce.

Young has one of the lowest rates of throwing to his first read in the NFL. You can't elevate an offense when you aren't even running the actual offense to begin with.

- Baker Mayfield was sacked 25 times in 14 games as a rookie.
- Marcus Mariota was sacked 38 times in 12 games as a rookie.
- Bryce Young is on pace to be sacked 68 times in 16 games.

The offensive line isn't a scapegoat. Scapegoating implies that something is being unfairly blamed to cover up more important reasons why something isn't succeeding. It's a logical reason to explain why the offense is not executing. I'd completely get your stance if they were giving him chances, but the offense is so functionally doomed right now and can't execute anything. On top of it, they have WRs who are among the league's worst in gaining separation. None of that has anything to do with a QB being 5'10.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Of course the off-schedule plays can't be all that you do and he was also good within structure at Alabama; However it was the assumed separating factor between him and Stroud and is likely what won him over CAR's owner.

He's failing for a lot of reasons but it is a major factor in his inability to elevate this offense like many expected coming into the year.

The TEN O-line got Mariota killed was the prevailing narrative that off-season. Amy Adams Strunk fired the coach for "not protecting" Marcus. Hired Mike Mularkey because he was committed to his "exotic smash mouth" football that emphasized the running game in an effort to keep him healthy. Then they drafted Jack Conklin in the 1st the next year + signed Ben Jones to a 4 year contract.

You can point to a lot of excuses for any player failing and the O-line is a common scape goat. The fact of the matter is that Bryce isn't getting it done and came into the NFL as an extreme size outlier (while you're focusing on his height that isn't nearly as big of an issue as his weight, imo).

Generally speaking when an outlier prospect fails his rookie year it's not a good sign and even if he does rebound he has a long way to go before he's worth more than a mid 1st. Jared Goff was mentioned as a possible success case for him and he's having a career year this season... he's still QB16 in ppg

I just don't understand how this is a realistic expectation. At one point in the Dallas game yesterday, Young had 15 pressures and 5 sacks on 33 dropbacks. What are you supposed to be elevating when you are getting pressured on damn near half of your dropbacks? Young has one of the lowest rates of throwing to his first read in the NFL. You can't elevate an offense when you aren't even running the actual offense to begin with.

- Baker Mayfield was sacked 25 times in 14 games as a rookie.
- Marcus Mariota was sacked 38 times in 12 games as a rookie.
- Bryce Young is on pace to be sacked 68 times in 16 games.

The offensive line isn't a scapegoat. Scapegoating implies that something is being unfairly blamed to cover up more important reasons why something isn't succeeding. It's a logical reason to explain why the offense is not executing. I'd completely get your stance if they were giving him chances, but the offense is so functionally doomed right now and can't execute anything. On top of it, they have WRs who are among the league's worst in gaining separation. None of that has anything to do with a QB being 5'10.

Zach Wilson on pace for 68 sacks. Doesn’t mean the line is that bad, many of those sacks he caused himself. I haven’t watched much Bryce Young but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities he’s to blame for much of it. Pressures and sacks are a qb stats almost as much as an offensive line stat, imo

[frerichs5]

Of course the off-schedule plays can't be all that you do and he was also good within structure at Alabama; However it was the assumed separating factor between him and Stroud and is likely what won him over CAR's owner.

He's failing for a lot of reasons but it is a major factor in his inability to elevate this offense like many expected coming into the year.

The TEN O-line got Mariota killed was the prevailing narrative that off-season. Amy Adams Strunk fired the coach for "not protecting" Marcus. Hired Mike Mularkey because he was committed to his "exotic smash mouth" football that emphasized the running game in an effort to keep him healthy. Then they drafted Jack Conklin in the 1st the next year + signed Ben Jones to a 4 year contract.

You can point to a lot of excuses for any player failing and the O-line is a common scape goat. The fact of the matter is that Bryce isn't getting it done and came into the NFL as an extreme size outlier (while you're focusing on his height that isn't nearly as big of an issue as his weight, imo).

Generally speaking when an outlier prospect fails his rookie year it's not a good sign and even if he does rebound he has a long way to go before he's worth more than a mid 1st. Jared Goff was mentioned as a possible success case for him and he's having a career year this season... he's still QB16 in ppg

I just don't understand how this is a realistic expectation. At one point in the Dallas game yesterday, Young had 15 pressures and 5 sacks on 33 dropbacks. What are you supposed to be elevating when you are getting pressured on damn near half of your dropbacks? Young has one of the lowest rates of throwing to his first read in the NFL. You can't elevate an offense when you aren't even running the actual offense to begin with.

- Baker Mayfield was sacked 25 times in 14 games as a rookie.
- Marcus Mariota was sacked 38 times in 12 games as a rookie.
- Bryce Young is on pace to be sacked 68 times in 16 games.

The offensive line isn't a scapegoat. Scapegoating implies that something is being unfairly blamed to cover up more important reasons why something isn't succeeding. It's a logical reason to explain why the offense is not executing. I'd completely get your stance if they were giving him chances, but the offense is so functionally doomed right now and can't execute anything. On top of it, they have WRs who are among the league's worst in gaining separation. None of that has anything to do with a QB being 5'10.

Zach Wilson on pace for 68 sacks. Doesn’t mean the line is that bad, many of those sacks he caused himself. I haven’t watched much Bryce Young but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities he’s to blame for much of it. Pressures and sacks are a qb stats almost as much as an offensive line stat, imo

Not arguing for or against Bryce Young. I believe I read somewhere that he had the 7th fastest average time to throw yesterday also. So despite getting the ball out quickly compared to average, they’re still giving up a large number of pressures.

[Cameron Giles]

Zach Wilson on pace for 68 sacks. Doesn’t mean the line is that bad, many of those sacks he caused himself. I haven’t watched much Bryce Young but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities he’s to blame for much of it. Pressures and sacks are a qb stats almost as much as an offensive line stat, imo

Pass block grades from yesterday:

LT - 23.6
LG - 10.7
C - 22.5
RG - 11.5
RT - 72.6 (0 sacks allowed, 2 pressures allowed)

They are currently starting a player who has a 7.2 pass block grade on the season. There's no way we're honestly going to sit here and pretend that Bryce Young is primarly responsible for the above.

[Sriracha]

I just don't understand how this is a realistic expectation. At one point in the Dallas game yesterday, Young had 15 pressures and 5 sacks on 33 dropbacks. What are you supposed to be elevating when you are getting pressured on damn near half of your dropbacks? Dallas finished with 23 pressures and 7 sacks yesterday.

Pass block grades from yesterday:

LT - 23.6
LG - 10.7
C - 22.5
RG - 11.5
RT - 72.6

Figure it out, Bryce.

Young has one of the lowest rates of throwing to his first read in the NFL. You can't elevate an offense when you aren't even running the actual offense to begin with.

- Baker Mayfield was sacked 25 times in 14 games as a rookie.
- Marcus Mariota was sacked 38 times in 12 games as a rookie.
- Bryce Young is on pace to be sacked 68 times in 16 games.

The offensive line isn't a scapegoat. Scapegoating implies that something is being unfairly blamed to cover up more important reasons why something isn't succeeding. It's a logical reason to explain why the offense is not executing. I'd completely get your stance if they were giving him chances, but the offense is so functionally doomed right now and can't execute anything. On top of it, they have WRs who are among the league's worst in gaining separation. None of that has anything to do with a QB being 5'10.

Just comes with the territory of being the 1.01

You were drafted to be the game changer a flailing franchise needed to turn their team around. Andrew Luck did it for the Colts. Cam Newton did it for the Panthers. Joe Burrow did it for the Bengals. Kyler Murray with the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield with the Browns.

Expecting a playoff team in year 1 might be overzealous.. but it's not unfair to expect an elite QB prospect (as you've called him) to at least field a competent offense regardless of their situation.

Again, I'm more concerned with his weight than his height (although that is an issue). The guy is very likely closer to 180lbs on game day and is one of the reasons he's sacked at such a high rate. He needs to make free rushers completely miss because if they get 1 hand on him he's going to get sacked.

Since you brought up Jordan Love he's a far more elusive runner because he's a legit 224 lbs.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b7w43dG9Tnw

Here he stiff arms one of the top pass rushers in the NFL

https://twitter.com/MattWaldman/status/ ... 2258299921

Steps up in the pocket, completely ignoring an attempted arm tackle from a basically free rusher

Both of those situations likely result in a sack for Bryce Young and it's directly related to his svelte frame.

Some more cold water on just how bad Bryce Young has been as a rookie

https://twitter.com/KevinCole___/status ... 7297234079

I get it though, Young was my (NFL) QB1 this off-season (whoops) but he was always overdrafted in fantasy 'because QB in SF'. His fantasy ceiling was always limited unless he became a Drew Brees level passer in the NFL which doesn't seem to be in the cards for him.

If people are still buying him for a mid 1st he's a very tempting sell candidate short of having a desperate need at QB.

[Cameron Giles]

Just comes with the territory of being the 1.01

You were drafted to be the game changer a flailing franchise needed to turn their team around. Andrew Luck did it for the Colts. Cam Newton did it for the Panthers. Joe Burrow did it for the Bengals. Kyler Murray with the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield with the Browns.

No it isn't. No team puts purposely puts a player with a dogcrap offensive line, trash receivers, and expects them to be really good anyway. If they are somehow really good, it's a revelation, not an expectation or a design. The Panthers misevaluated what they surrounded Young with and they don't have a shot to meaningfully develop him this season because of it unless dramatic improvement happens.

Bryce Young - on pace for 68 sacks in 16 games
Murray - 48 sacks in 16 games
Luck - 41 sacks in 16 games
Newton - 35 sacks in 16 games
Burrow - 32 sacks in 10 games

Expecting a playoff team in year 1 might be overzealous.. but it's not unfair to expect an elite QB prospect (as you've called him) to at least field a competent offense regardless of their situation.

Again, I'm more concerned with his weight than his height (although that is an issue). The guy is very likely closer to 180lbs on game day and is one of the reasons he's sacked at such a high rate. He needs to make free rushers completely miss because if they get 1 hand on him he's going to get sacked.

It's not the primary or even secondary reason he's getting sacked at a high rate. He literally had 4 offensive line men with <25 pass-pro grade yesterday and each averaged 5+ pressures.

If you watch the games and look at the numbers, there is no possibility for them to field a competent offense. They're not leaving meat on the bone. 23 pressures and 7 sacks yesterday. How is any rookie supposed to execute any sort of competence on 23 pressures? "Figure it out, anyway" only goes so far as logic.

These Love videos don't add anything to what we're talking about. Young has avoided arm tackles before this season. Here, he breaks an arm tackle after terrible pass pro by his RB and spins out to find the receiver. The logic can't be expecting him to do this on every other play as a rookie. At some point, you need your offensive line to give the QB time, and you need WRs who can beat their matchups. He doesn't have either.

The majority of, if not all of his best passes this season have been under pressure throws.

[Sriracha]

It's not the primary or even secondary reason he's getting sacked at a high rate. He literally had 4 offensive line men with <25 pass-pro grade yesterday and each averaged 5+ pressures.

If you watch the games and look at the numbers, there is no possibility for them to field a competent offense. They're not leaving meat on the bone. 23 pressures and 7 sacks yesterday. How is any rookie supposed to execute any sort of competence on 23 pressures? "Figure it out, anyway" only goes so far as logic.

I hear you, and you may very well be right; However I've heard the exact same talking points about numerous other QBs, like Justin Fields, that have then gone on to prove that they're part of the problem (and in most cases were the primary reason) for the O-line's struggles.

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/ ... 68/photo/1

It's a small sample with Andy Dalton but he was clearly sacked less behind this O-line, with these receivers. You can point to him being a 10+ year veteran.. but that's really just an excuse. Dalton is solid but he's a journeyman QB at this point in his career and the 1.01 is expected to perform better than those types of guys, period. To say otherwise is moving the goal posts on the expectations people have for QBs taken that high in the draft.

Just to be clear though, I'm not saying that Bryce is terrible and won't get better. We'll see what happens I just don't think it's the smart EV play to completely disregard a rookie season no matter how many excuses there may be.

[Cameron Giles]

I hear you, and you may very well be right; However I've heard the exact same talking points about numerous other QBs, like Justin Fields, that have then gone on to prove that they're part of the problem (and in most cases were the primary reason) for the O-line's struggles.

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/ ... 68/photo/1

It's a small sample with Andy Dalton but he was clearly sacked less behind this O-line, with these receivers. You can point to him being a 10+ year veteran.. but that's really just an excuse. Dalton is solid but he's a journeyman QB at this point in his career and the 1.01 is expected to perform better than those types of guys, period. To say otherwise is moving the goal posts on the expectations people have for QBs taken that high in the draft.

Just to be clear though, I'm not saying that Bryce is terrible and won't get better. We'll see what happens I just don't think it's the smart EV play to completely disregard a rookie season no matter how many excuses there may be.

You can also point to QBs who started and struggled behind horsecrap offensive lines, saw improvement in the personnel for it, and suddenly looked better. Trying to compare one random game in Week 3 to a 9 game sample is a really hard sell.

Per PFF, the Panthers OL gave up 23 Sacks + Hits + Hurries in Week 11 to the Cowboys. That is the 8th time in 10 games the OL has allowed 16-plus Sacks + Hits + Hurries. They have 190 in total on the season. Young had the 7th fastest time to throw last Sunday. I could go all day with stats like this. At some point, it becomes very clear what's happening. This isn't an issue of a QB making an offensive line look bad. Again....they are currently starting an offensive lineman with a <10 pass pro grade.

There is not an opportunity to elevate an offense when you are getting pressured at such high volume that you can't even run the offense to begin with. "Figure it out, because you're the 1.01" is not good logic, especially when that player is a rookie. There are absolutely things Young has to improve on, but they are missing a huge and obvious component as a starting point to an offense with a rookie QB.