Jerry Jeudy Official Thread

[Cameron Giles]

Sutton is a good player but he didn't really compare to Juedy when he came out. Juedy is a far better route runner with better top end speed.

Denver should be glad to have both but Juedy is the more versatile player by a pretty wide margin as he can play all 3 positions.

Hard to say who will ultimately be better but Juedy would be my long term choice pretty easily.

That may have been true when Sutton came out, but his route running has really improved the past two seasons... and he's far more suited to the X receiver role than Jeudy will ever be. Jeudy is limited in the contested catch department, and it remains to be seen if his YAC translates to the NFL; where Sutton led all NFL WRs (by a lot) in broken tackles last year.

Contested catches are an overvalued part of being a WR. The game is about getting open and Jeudy does that better than any WR in this class. Contested catches are simply an x-factor if the defense is equal to the offense. And even then, it's not a high percentage play.

Sutton and Jeudy are completely different WRs, which is why they can work really well together. But, make no mistake...Jeudy is a better prsopect coming in than Sutton was and is more advanced at the finer aspects of being a WR than Sutton is.

[FantasyFreak]

Sutton is a good player but he didn't really compare to Juedy when he came out. Juedy is a far better route runner with better top end speed.

Denver should be glad to have both but Juedy is the more versatile player by a pretty wide margin as he can play all 3 positions.

Hard to say who will ultimately be better but Juedy would be my long term choice pretty easily.

That may have been true when Sutton came out, but his route running has really improved the past two seasons... and he's far more suited to the X receiver role than Jeudy will ever be. Jeudy is limited in the contested catch department, and it remains to be seen if his YAC translates to the NFL; where Sutton led all NFL WRs (by a lot) in broken tackles last year.

Contested catches are an overvalued part of being a WR. The game is about getting open and Jeudy does that better than any WR in this class. Contested catches are simply an x-factor if the defense is equal to the offense. And even then, it's not a high percentage play.

Sutton and Jeudy are completely different WRs, which is why they can work really well together. But, make no mistake...Jeudy is a better prsopect coming in than Sutton was and is more advanced at the finer aspects of being a WR than Sutton is.

If you are a receiver at Sutton's size, vs Jeudy, it's totally different. A guy like Jeudy SHOULD get open more to a degree, he's smaller and quicker. If he can't, he has little shot to be as productive. WR's who can be thrown open will always have a place, just not if it's ALL you can do. The idea being thrown a 50/50 ball that is actually is a 70/30 ball due to size/ball skills isn't valuable just isn't right, IMO. That makes it a high percentage play. Again, if that's your entire game, I agree that you won't make it.

Jeudy will NEVER be a contested catch guy. He will need to separate, that's the only way he can win. If a player like Sutton can separate to a large degree, but when he doesn't, still come down with the pass, he's going to be the better player. If Sutton can't separate at all, and is only a contested catch guy, Jeudy will probably be better. It can somehow meet in the middle, too, where Jeudy separates more than Sutton, but Sutton can still make more of contested catches, especially further down the field, and they can produce similarly, with different skill sets. If you can make a 30 yard grab on a contested catch, the QB may throw that ball over a 7 yard pass to a player who has created a bit of separation. Really depends on the situation of the game, and your level of trust in that WR, and his abilities.

The idea that a WR that is 6 ft 4 and 216 should have the exact same skill set as a guy who is 6 ft 1 and 193 isn't really realistic. There are things that both can do better than the other.

[Cameron Giles]

If you are a receiver at Sutton's size, vs Jeudy, it's totally different. A guy like Jeudy SHOULD get open more to a degree, he's smaller and quicker. If he can't, he has little shot to be as productive. WR's who can be thrown open will always have a place, just not if it's ALL you can do. The idea being thrown a 50/50 ball that is actually is a 70/30 ball due to size/ball skills isn't valuable just isn't right, IMO. That makes it a high percentage play. Again, if that's your entire game, I agree that you won't make it.

Jeudy will NEVER be a contested catch guy. He will need to separate, that's the only way he can win. If a player like Sutton can separate to a large degree, but when he doesn't, still come down with the pass, he's going to be the better player. If Sutton can't separate at all, and is only a contested catch guy, Jeudy will probably be better. It can somehow meet in the middle, too, where Jeudy separates more than Sutton, but Sutton can still make more of contested catches, especially further down the field, and they can produce similarly, with different skill sets. If you can make a 30 yard grab on a contested catch, the QB may throw that ball over a 7 yard pass to a player who has created a bit of separation. Really depends on the situation of the game, and your level of trust in that WR, and his abilities.

The idea that a WR that is 6 ft 4 and 216 should have the exact same skill set as a guy who is 6 ft 1 and 193 isn't really realistic. There are things that both can do better than the other.

I didn't say that contested catches are not valuable, I said they are overvalued.

Julio Jones is the only WR in the NFL with 20+ contested catches in each of the last two seasons. Just process that. The amount of contested catches that happens throughout the regular season for a single WR is extremely low volume and for most players it's low percentage. It simply does not happen enough for a player to win consistently with. So, I'm not sure how many contested catches you think Sutton is realistically going to get. He might get 1 a game.

Running a route and getting open happens repeatedly. That's why players who do that at a high level are much more coveted in today's NFL. The game is simply about getting open at the highest volume possible. Sutton is not a bad route runner and I think he's actually improved at it. However, Jerry Jeudy has a chance to be an ELITE high volume route runner and separator, which to me, makes him someone I would project more favorably than Sutton long-term.

[ericanadian]

If you are a receiver at Sutton's size, vs Jeudy, it's totally different. A guy like Jeudy SHOULD get open more to a degree, he's smaller and quicker. If he can't, he has little shot to be as productive. WR's who can be thrown open will always have a place, just not if it's ALL you can do. The idea being thrown a 50/50 ball that is actually is a 70/30 ball due to size/ball skills isn't valuable just isn't right, IMO. That makes it a high percentage play. Again, if that's your entire game, I agree that you won't make it.

Jeudy will NEVER be a contested catch guy. He will need to separate, that's the only way he can win. If a player like Sutton can separate to a large degree, but when he doesn't, still come down with the pass, he's going to be the better player. If Sutton can't separate at all, and is only a contested catch guy, Jeudy will probably be better. It can somehow meet in the middle, too, where Jeudy separates more than Sutton, but Sutton can still make more of contested catches, especially further down the field, and they can produce similarly, with different skill sets. If you can make a 30 yard grab on a contested catch, the QB may throw that ball over a 7 yard pass to a player who has created a bit of separation. Really depends on the situation of the game, and your level of trust in that WR, and his abilities.

The idea that a WR that is 6 ft 4 and 216 should have the exact same skill set as a guy who is 6 ft 1 and 193 isn't really realistic. There are things that both can do better than the other.

I didn't say that contested catches are not valuable, I said they are overvalued.

Julio Jones is the only WR in the NFL with 20+ contested catches in each of the last two seasons. Just process that. The amount of contested catches that happens throughout the regular season for a single WR is extremely low volume and for most players it's low percentage. It simply does not happen enough for a player to win consistently with. So, I'm not sure how many contested catches you think Sutton is realistically going to get. He might get 1 a game.

Running a route and getting open happens repeatedly. That's why players who do that at a high level are much more coveted in today's NFL. The game is simply about getting open at the highest volume possible. Sutton is not a bad route runner and I think he's actually improved at it. However, Jerry Jeudy has a chance to be an ELITE high volume route runner and separator, which to me, makes him someone I would project more favorably than Sutton long-term.

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

[PR0v3]

If you are a receiver at Sutton's size, vs Jeudy, it's totally different. A guy like Jeudy SHOULD get open more to a degree, he's smaller and quicker. If he can't, he has little shot to be as productive. WR's who can be thrown open will always have a place, just not if it's ALL you can do. The idea being thrown a 50/50 ball that is actually is a 70/30 ball due to size/ball skills isn't valuable just isn't right, IMO. That makes it a high percentage play. Again, if that's your entire game, I agree that you won't make it.

Jeudy will NEVER be a contested catch guy. He will need to separate, that's the only way he can win. If a player like Sutton can separate to a large degree, but when he doesn't, still come down with the pass, he's going to be the better player. If Sutton can't separate at all, and is only a contested catch guy, Jeudy will probably be better. It can somehow meet in the middle, too, where Jeudy separates more than Sutton, but Sutton can still make more of contested catches, especially further down the field, and they can produce similarly, with different skill sets. If you can make a 30 yard grab on a contested catch, the QB may throw that ball over a 7 yard pass to a player who has created a bit of separation. Really depends on the situation of the game, and your level of trust in that WR, and his abilities.

The idea that a WR that is 6 ft 4 and 216 should have the exact same skill set as a guy who is 6 ft 1 and 193 isn't really realistic. There are things that both can do better than the other.

I didn't say that contested catches are not valuable, I said they are overvalued.

Julio Jones is the only WR in the NFL with 20+ contested catches in each of the last two seasons. Just process that. The amount of contested catches that happens throughout the regular season for a single WR is extremely low volume and for most players it's low percentage. It simply does not happen enough for a player to win consistently with. So, I'm not sure how many contested catches you think Sutton is realistically going to get. He might get 1 a game.

Running a route and getting open happens repeatedly. That's why players who do that at a high level are much more coveted in today's NFL. The game is simply about getting open at the highest volume possible. Sutton is not a bad route runner and I think he's actually improved at it. However, Jerry Jeudy has a chance to be an ELITE high volume route runner and separator, which to me, makes him someone I would project more favorably than Sutton long-term.

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

I'm pretty sure that every reception that is not a contested catch would be the result of good route running, what else could it be? What other way is there to make a reception besides being open, if we are excluding contested catches? And what other way is there to get open besides running a route?

[FantasyFreak]

I didn't say that contested catches are not valuable, I said they are overvalued.

Julio Jones is the only WR in the NFL with 20+ contested catches in each of the last two seasons. Just process that. The amount of contested catches that happens throughout the regular season for a single WR is extremely low volume and for most players it's low percentage. It simply does not happen enough for a player to win consistently with. So, I'm not sure how many contested catches you think Sutton is realistically going to get. He might get 1 a game.

Running a route and getting open happens repeatedly. That's why players who do that at a high level are much more coveted in today's NFL. The game is simply about getting open at the highest volume possible. Sutton is not a bad route runner and I think he's actually improved at it. However, Jerry Jeudy has a chance to be an ELITE high volume route runner and separator, which to me, makes him someone I would project more favorably than Sutton long-term.

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

I'm pretty sure that every reception that is not a contested catch would be the result of good route running, what else could it be? What other way is there to make a reception besides being open, if we are excluding contested catches? And what other way is there to get open besides running a route?

Defenses playing zone, blowing a coverage, falling etc. Lots of reasons. There are tons of catches where great route running isn't required, you just need to run to a spot in the zone.

[PR0v3]

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

I'm pretty sure that every reception that is not a contested catch would be the result of good route running, what else could it be? What other way is there to make a reception besides being open, if we are excluding contested catches? And what other way is there to get open besides running a route?

Defenses playing zone, blowing a coverage, falling etc. Lots of reasons. There are tons of catches where great route running isn't required, you just need to run to a spot in the zone.

I mean, I would say that running to a soft spot in a zone is a good route. If it were so easy to run to an open spot in the zone, zone defense wouldn't be a thing. The objective of route running isn't to look cool or make fancy moves, it's to get from point A to B, as specified by the play call, on time and open. If a player does that, then to me it was a good route since the mission was accomplished, regardless of how it looked. Contested catches are just a result of the route failing, but being thrown the ball anyways. Fancy moves, cuts, and jukes are a result of not being able to get open otherwise.

In the end, all that really matters is catching the pass and moving the ball, it doesn't really matter how it is accomplished. I think Jeudy is better at what he does than Sutton is at what he does, so I expect Jeudy to eventually become the more productive player.

[Sriracha]

I'm pretty sure that every reception that is not a contested catch would be the result of good route running, what else could it be? What other way is there to make a reception besides being open, if we are excluding contested catches? And what other way is there to get open besides running a route?

Defenses playing zone, blowing a coverage, falling etc. Lots of reasons. There are tons of catches where great route running isn't required, you just need to run to a spot in the zone.

I mean, I would say that running to a soft spot in a zone is a good route. If it were so easy to run to an open spot in the zone, zone defense wouldn't be a thing. The objective of route running isn't to look cool or make fancy moves, it's to get from point A to B, as specified by the play call, on time and open. If a player does that, then to me it was a good route since the mission was accomplished, regardless of how it looked. Contested catches are just a result of the route failing, but being thrown the ball anyways. Fancy moves, cuts, and jukes are a result of not being able to get open otherwise. In the end, all that really matters is catching the pass and moving the ball, it doesn't really matter how that is accomplished.

Quick question... how bad of a route runner do you think Sutton is at this point in his career? Do you think it's possible he gets better?

[Sriracha]

If you are a receiver at Sutton's size, vs Jeudy, it's totally different. A guy like Jeudy SHOULD get open more to a degree, he's smaller and quicker. If he can't, he has little shot to be as productive. WR's who can be thrown open will always have a place, just not if it's ALL you can do. The idea being thrown a 50/50 ball that is actually is a 70/30 ball due to size/ball skills isn't valuable just isn't right, IMO. That makes it a high percentage play. Again, if that's your entire game, I agree that you won't make it.

Jeudy will NEVER be a contested catch guy. He will need to separate, that's the only way he can win. If a player like Sutton can separate to a large degree, but when he doesn't, still come down with the pass, he's going to be the better player. If Sutton can't separate at all, and is only a contested catch guy, Jeudy will probably be better. It can somehow meet in the middle, too, where Jeudy separates more than Sutton, but Sutton can still make more of contested catches, especially further down the field, and they can produce similarly, with different skill sets. If you can make a 30 yard grab on a contested catch, the QB may throw that ball over a 7 yard pass to a player who has created a bit of separation. Really depends on the situation of the game, and your level of trust in that WR, and his abilities.

The idea that a WR that is 6 ft 4 and 216 should have the exact same skill set as a guy who is 6 ft 1 and 193 isn't really realistic. There are things that both can do better than the other.

I didn't say that contested catches are not valuable, I said they are overvalued.

Julio Jones is the only WR in the NFL with 20+ contested catches in each of the last two seasons. Just process that. The amount of contested catches that happens throughout the regular season for a single WR is extremely low volume and for most players it's low percentage. It simply does not happen enough for a player to win consistently with. So, I'm not sure how many contested catches you think Sutton is realistically going to get. He might get 1 a game.

Running a route and getting open happens repeatedly. That's why players who do that at a high level are much more coveted in today's NFL. The game is simply about getting open at the highest volume possible. Sutton is not a bad route runner and I think he's actually improved at it. However, Jerry Jeudy has a chance to be an ELITE high volume route runner and separator, which to me, makes him someone I would project more favorably than Sutton long-term.

Sutton was a terrible route runner, and he has definitely improved on it. Given his natural ability (99th percentile size adjusted agility) and his rate of improvement I don't understand how you can eliminate the possibility he becomes an elite route runner. His rate of improvement thus far reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall.

[PR0v3]

Defenses playing zone, blowing a coverage, falling etc. Lots of reasons. There are tons of catches where great route running isn't required, you just need to run to a spot in the zone.

I mean, I would say that running to a soft spot in a zone is a good route. If it were so easy to run to an open spot in the zone, zone defense wouldn't be a thing. The objective of route running isn't to look cool or make fancy moves, it's to get from point A to B, as specified by the play call, on time and open. If a player does that, then to me it was a good route since the mission was accomplished, regardless of how it looked. Contested catches are just a result of the route failing, but being thrown the ball anyways. Fancy moves, cuts, and jukes are a result of not being able to get open otherwise. In the end, all that really matters is catching the pass and moving the ball, it doesn't really matter how that is accomplished.

Quick question... how bad of a route runner do you think Sutton is at this point in his career? Do you think it's possible he gets better?

I think he is an above average route runner. Based on a quick google search, he only had 9 contested catches through week 15. Not sure what he had for the season, but it probably wasn't much more than that. Most players in the NFL didn't have 60+ uncontested catches, so he's definitely doing better than most at getting open.

[Cameron Giles]

Sutton was a terrible route runner, and he has definitely improved on it. Given his natural ability (99th percentile size adjusted agility) and his rate of improvement I don't understand how you can eliminate the possibility he becomes an elite route runner. His rate of improvement thus far reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall.

I do not see Sutton being an elite route runner or separator. I think he'll be more than competent at it though, as he currently is, but he can't do the things Jerry Jeudy does as a route runner. I know that's not a fair comparison, because they're different types of receivers, but it is what it is.

[Cameron Giles]

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

I just gave you a comparison.

For example, here are some of the elite contested catch totals from the 2019 season:

Tyreek Hill: 13/20
Stefon Diggs: 16/25
Mike Evans: 16/26
Allen Robinson: 14/24
DeAndre Hopkins: 25/43
AJ Green: 12/21
Kenny Golladay: 17/30

Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, most WRs are on average seeing about 1 contested catch a game. There are opportunities for more, but it's just 1.

Compare that to a WR, lining up, running a route, and getting open, and the volume is simply not comparable. You can not make a high volume living in the NFL as a contested catch WR. It's only an x-factor.

High volume separation is the most coveted skill you can find in a WR and Jerry Jeudy has the potential to be elite at it. Sutton, while solid, is not that type of player.

[Sriracha]

Sutton was a terrible route runner, and he has definitely improved on it. Given his natural ability (99th percentile size adjusted agility) and his rate of improvement I don't understand how you can eliminate the possibility he becomes an elite route runner. His rate of improvement thus far reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall.

I do not see Sutton being an elite route runner or separator. I think he'll be more than competent at it though, as he currently is, but he can't do the things Jerry Jeudy does as a route runner. I know that's not a fair comparison, because they're different types of receivers, but it is what it is.

Sutton has drastically improved his route running since college and you've agreed that he's currently more than competent at it right now. Why do you so strongly believe that he won't continue to get better in this area?

[FantasyFreak]

Not a fair comparison. Creating separation doesn’t necessarily result in a throw being directed to the receiver. A contested catch means that the receiver made the catch.

You’d need to compare how many receptions came to be due to good route running vs how many are due to contested catch. You could make an argument that a good contested catch guy is always open. Even there, it has limited application to this comparison as Sutton does get separation, and Jeudy has a greater than zero chance in contested catch situations.

I just gave you a comparison.

For example, here are some of the elite contested catch totals from the 2019 season:

Tyreek Hill: 13/20
Stefon Diggs: 16/25
Mike Evans: 16/26
Allen Robinson: 14/24
DeAndre Hopkins: 25/43
AJ Green: 12/21
Kenny Golladay: 17/30

Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, most WRs are on average seeing about 1 contested catch a game. There are opportunities for more, but it's just 1.

Compare that to a WR, lining up, running a route, and getting open, and the volume is simply not comparable. You can not make a high volume living in the NFL as a contested catch WR. It's only an x-factor.

High volume separation is the most coveted skill you can find in a WR and Jerry Jeudy has the potential to be elite at it. Sutton, while solid, is not that type of player.

Terry McLaurin led the league in contested catch rate, and is also viewed as a good route runner by some. That was what I was referring to earlier, when I commented, it's a skill that is not something you should base your game around, but certainly helps being a good overall receiver. McLaurin, if he becomes an elite separator, could become a top end WR in the league, with his ball skills, the problem of course, is the offense.

[Cameron Giles]

Terry McLaurin led the league in contested catch rate, and is also viewed as a good route runner by some. That was what I was referring to earlier, when I commented, it's a skill that is not something you should base your game around, but certainly helps being a good overall receiver. McLaurin, if he becomes an elite separator, could become a top end WR in the league, with his ball skills, the problem of course, is the offense.

I don't disagree. I'm simply noting that it's much easier for a WR to have a path towards becoming a good contested catch player, than it is for a player to master the art of route running and separation.

I'm not banking on Jeudy becoming one of 5 best players in the league at it, but I would not rule out that he can become solid to good at it. Either way, if his route running translates, then the ceiling for him is pretty damn high.