Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.trc wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:41 amI understand the concept, the one I replied just don’t make any sense to me in the context of the other posts in the quote with wordings etc.Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 7:44 amHere's a simple way to grasp the concept.
Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.
Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?
I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?
We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.
So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.
That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.
To your last paragraph, I honestly just think it is way to soon to pass that judgement over young. It is 3 games in, a lot of football to be played.
You could end up being right.
Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.
The 2020 QB class had: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts as known 'hits' already with Jordan Love trending towards being a hit, as well. The idea that "some of these guys have to miss" is a fallacy. It's unlikely to happen but definitely not impossible.