SF: Jefferson VS Olave & Stroud (full ppr)

[Johnny Canuck]

Simply what side would you prefer in a dynasty SF league, Jefferson or Stroud & Olave?

[gogobradyarm]

Olave is a great young WR and Stroud i'm not sure about but I lean the Olave/Stroud side.

[tstafford]

If this is the only way to get a QB and the need for one is desperate, I can see the logic of this deal.

But I'd look for most any other approach to add a QB. I'd prefer to trade for a lesser one like Carr/Rodgers/Purdy/etc. and hold on to the best WR in FF. Especially if the team is competitive.

[TheTroll]

JJ and then find another way to QB land

[Needalife]

JJ and then find another way to QB land

This ^. I just don’t trust Stroud enough to move off of the best WR in the game. Stroud has immense bust factor IMO.

[Anteaters]

JJ and then find another way to QB land

This ^. I just don’t trust Stroud enough to move off of the best WR in the game. Stroud has immense bust factor IMO.

Any rookie QB could bust. I think it's up to each manager to decide if he believes in a specific QB. Not discounting your opinion, because it's definitely one possibility. I *think* Stroud will succeed, but we all know nothing is guaranteed when it comes to rookie QBs.

Also, it's hell having only 1 viable starting QB in a dynasty SF league. When the opportunity to add one comes along, it should be seriously consisered by teams who need a QB.

If OP believes Stroud is not a bust and will succeed, I think the trade makes sense. It's very difficult to get any QB taken 1.02 in the NFL draft. It's extremely costly to trade for a T12QB in fantasy/dynasty and often requires an overpay. It's up to the OP to decide which rookie/2ndYear QBs (with QB1 potential) he wants to gamble on to try to acquire.

If the OP has decided Stroud can be the guy, now is the time to go get him. If Stroud finishes the first half of the season averaging 225yds/1.5TDs/.75int, his value will skyrocket.

If someone believes Stroud is a future T12QB, I think this is a reasonable trade. Jefferson is one of those special dynasty players, but Olave is a real high-value player and helps lessen the loss of JJ. Besides, the OP knows his league and outlook best. The OP has a feel for how long it might take to acquire a potential very good starting QB without trading JJ. If the outlook doesn't point to a direct path, what's the point of holding JJ for three more seasons without a decent 2nd QB, knowing your team will never bottom out and never truly contend?

For a team that rarely ends up bad enough to get a T4 pick in SF, it's almost impossible to draft a quality starting QB. OTOH, it's very possible to draft WR1s anywhere in the first round of rookie drafts.

[Gator Sens]

JJ and then find another way to QB land

x2 - Olave is a solid young WR, but he is not in Jeffersons range.

[Johnny Canuck]

Thanks everyone, I have the Stroud and Olave side of this deal.

I decided to keep Stroud and Olave. Based on beat writers it sounds like Olave is going to take another jump this yr, which wouldn’t put him too far behind JJ in dynasty rankings - and he can prob get me 90% of JJs production.

So I decided on 90% of JJs production with a shot at a top rookie QB. Even if Stroud turns out to be ‘just’ a top 24 QB I feel like this is still the better side of the coin to be on. Getting QBs is just too tough in a dynasty SF.

Thanks for the input.

[dblj1199]

I'm all about JJ here. Even in a SF, and (yes I'm a OSU fan) I'm higher on Stroud than most I still prefer JJ alone.

[moishetreats]

Thanks everyone, I have the Stroud and Olave side of this deal.

I decided to keep Stroud and Olave. Based on beat writers it sounds like Olave is going to take another jump this yr, which wouldn’t put him too far behind JJ in dynasty rankings - and he can prob get me 90% of JJs production.

So I decided on 90% of JJs production with a shot at a top rookie QB. Even if Stroud turns out to be ‘just’ a top 24 QB I feel like this is still the better side of the coin to be on. Getting QBs is just too tough in a dynasty SF.

Thanks for the input.

I'm on the Jefferson side (pretty easily), and I completely get your preference to keep your guys. But I wouldn't hold your side predicated on Olave getting 90% of JJ's production. I just don't see that at all.

If Olave is 50% better than last year (and that's a MASSIVE jump), his line will be 98 / 1,563 / 6
That's still not 90% of Jefferson's line from last year, which is 115 / 1,628 / 7

I'm not saying the gap won't close and potentially by a good amount, but it's a verrrrrrrry far off bet that Olave will net you 90% of Jefferson's production. Again, I just wouldn't use that baseline as the reason to decline this trade.

[Johnny Canuck]

Thanks everyone, I have the Stroud and Olave side of this deal.

I decided to keep Stroud and Olave. Based on beat writers it sounds like Olave is going to take another jump this yr, which wouldn’t put him too far behind JJ in dynasty rankings - and he can prob get me 90% of JJs production.

So I decided on 90% of JJs production with a shot at a top rookie QB. Even if Stroud turns out to be ‘just’ a top 24 QB I feel like this is still the better side of the coin to be on. Getting QBs is just too tough in a dynasty SF.

Thanks for the input.

I'm on the Jefferson side (pretty easily), and I completely get your preference to keep your guys. But I wouldn't hold your side predicated on Olave getting 90% of JJ's production. I just don't see that at all.

If Olave is 50% better than last year (and that's a MASSIVE jump), his line will be 98 / 1,563 / 6
That's still not 90% of Jefferson's line from last year, which is 115 / 1,628 / 7

I'm not saying the gap won't close and potentially by a good amount, but it's a verrrrrrrry far off bet that Olave will net you 90% of Jefferson's production. Again, I just wouldn't use that baseline as the reason to decline this trade.

The funny thing is…using the numbers you gave, that technically gives Olave 90.7% of JJs production from last yr lol.

And that’s not a true 50% increase in production, receptions should be at 108 instead of 98 for a true 50% increase across the board - which would jump Olave to 93.9% of JJs 2022 production. But that is semantics and would be a huge jump in stats…I believe he can, but who knows, would be a big jump.

I personally don’t think 98/1563/6 is out of reach for Olave, but we all have our own thoughts on the matter.

Thanks for your opinion regardless!

[Anteaters]

Also, this (reverse) trade isn't a failure if Olave never averages 90% of JJ, or even 80%. If Stroud becomes QB7-12 and Olave consistently puts up 95/1200/8 for a few years, I think the O+S side of this trade is a runaway success.