Bijan Trade

[jonesmaster]

Was offered a monster trade in a league with similar settings to the one in sig. (only diff being its 2 TE). Please let me know what side you'd take. The team offering is a very veteran, but good, team (His Starting Lineup: Josh Allen, Mixon, Conner, Ridley, Kupp, Adams, Cooper, Kelce, Andrews, Dimes)

[Gator Sens]

I think the value is okay on paper but with the 1sts multiple years out and hard to project, I think you can do better for Robinson. Even with Olave being a solid young asset.

Robinsons value is so high right now, a great package can likely be found.

[mgregoirec]

It's 2-TE and he has Kelce AND Andrews? His picks should be late and so I'm out.

[BigBawseRoss]

bijan, need something better with olave here i think, hes gaining a lot with a powerhouse already in place

[grooner]

Bijan for me. Firsts 2/3 years out form a contender aren't worth that much.

In an 8 team league studs are were it is at, and Bijan should be that stud.

[murphysxm]

Bijan for me. Firsts 2/3 years out from a contender aren't worth that much.

Agreed.

[MacDaddy123]

Yeah, I think I'd need more to move Bijan.

I did move Bijan in one of my leagues, for London + early 24 1st in 12 team SF TEP
Sleeper projections and Dynasty Daddy both rank the pick as 1.01 in 2024 by quite a bit.
So hopefully turns Bijan into London + Caleb OR MHJ at worst.

Also, I am higher on London than Olave personally.

[moishetreats]

Bijan for me. Firsts 2/3 years out form a contender aren't worth that much.

In an 8 team league studs are were it is at, and Bijan should be that stud.

I agree with the second part but less so the first.

Bijan is/should be a stud. Olave will probably be very good. In an 8-team, being "very good" has much diminished value.

But, being in an 8-team league significantly increases the value of 1st-round picks. At worst, it will be pick 1.08. And a middle-of-the-pack team is pick 1.03-1.06. So I'd argue that the future picks are VERY valuable. Even the 2nd-rounder.

That being said, I'd still hang onto Bijan here.

[dblj1199]

With two of the three picks in 2026 this is a no go for me, they are just too far out.

[FantasyFreak]

How many years out are you allowed to trade? Please tell me people have to pay for those picks to be traded.....

I'd side with Bijan, being so far out with the firsts.

[jonesmaster]

Bijan for me. Firsts 2/3 years out form a contender aren't worth that much.

In an 8 team league studs are were it is at, and Bijan should be that stud.

I agree with the second part but less so the first.

Bijan is/should be a stud. Olave will probably be very good. In an 8-team, being "very good" has much diminished value.

But, being in an 8-team league significantly increases the value of 1st-round picks. At worst, it will be pick 1.08. And a middle-of-the-pack team is pick 1.03-1.06. So I'd argue that the future picks are VERY valuable. Even the 2nd-rounder.

That being said, I'd still hang onto Bijan here.

Thanks - there's a lot of context here that is difficult to articulate in a post to make it easily digestible. His team is obviously very good, but it is not deep (he has literally no one relevant on the bench) and there are 2 other contenders with similar or better teams. He also has no picks in 2024. My team was an inherited orphan that is a total rebuild and would not be competitive for a min of 2 years regardless of whether I have Bijan. I will be picking 1st overall guaranteed in 2024 and 2025 with my picks. I own 6 firsts in 2024. 2 firsts in 2025 and 2 firsts in 2026. With that being said, I personally side with the sale as a value play - esp. given the fact that Bijan is already priced in at RB1 without playing a snap. I think I would be basically wasting 2 years of Bijan with a team that has no chance of winning only to take on injury risk and hope to get similar value if I wanted to move him. Although many are correct to say that the picks are far out, they are also guaranteed to increase in value over time - Bijan is not (esp. from his current price). Picks are valued highly by players in my league. I think I am increasing my team value by the time my team will be competitive by making the sale.

[moishetreats]

Bijan for me. Firsts 2/3 years out form a contender aren't worth that much.

In an 8 team league studs are were it is at, and Bijan should be that stud.

I agree with the second part but less so the first.

Bijan is/should be a stud. Olave will probably be very good. In an 8-team, being "very good" has much diminished value.

But, being in an 8-team league significantly increases the value of 1st-round picks. At worst, it will be pick 1.08. And a middle-of-the-pack team is pick 1.03-1.06. So I'd argue that the future picks are VERY valuable. Even the 2nd-rounder.

That being said, I'd still hang onto Bijan here.

Thanks - there's a lot of context here that is difficult to articulate in a post to make it easily digestible. His team is obviously very good, but it is not deep (he has literally no one relevant on the bench) and there are 2 other contenders with similar or better teams. He also has no picks in 2024. My team was an inherited orphan that is a total rebuild and would not be competitive for a min of 2 years regardless of whether I have Bijan. I will be picking 1st overall guaranteed in 2024 and 2025 with my picks. I own 6 firsts in 2024. 2 firsts in 2025 and 2 firsts in 2026. With that being said, I personally side with the sale as a value play - esp. given the fact that Bijan is already priced in at RB1 without playing a snap. I think I would be basically wasting 2 years of Bijan with a team that has no chance of winning only to take on injury risk and hope to get similar value if I wanted to move him. Although many are correct to say that the picks are far out, they are also guaranteed to increase in value over time - Bijan is not (esp. from his current price). Picks are valued highly by players in my league. I think I am increasing my team value by the time my team will be competitive by making the sale.

Hearing your thought process, I'm getting pretty convinced. My first response when reading your initial post was to strongly consider the offer. Then I thought along with many of the comments here. But you've articulated why I do think it's a compelling offer.

I also might have missed that your competitive window probably won't be open for a couple of years. That's important. I'll add one other note: in a rebuild, we often look for perfect value before we sell, not recognizing two things:

1) Sometimes, a player's sell value drops.
2) Sometimes, a trade available now isn't on the table later.

Of course, the opposite of both is true. I think we typically consider the optimistic possibilities while discounting the other side. With all that in mind, I do think the trade is fair value. World beater? Clearly not. Massive loss? Clearly not. And I think fair value is actually pretty solid in a long-term rebuild.

So, yeah, you've/I've convinced me to join the trade side. Obviously, you can try to get some sweeteners first (unless you're confident this is the final offer).