Zig While Others Zag

[FantasyFreak]

Since this is the Musgrave thread now...

https://theathletic.com/4782145/2023/08 ... y-packers/

The Packers ran a jet sweep from the 7-yard line during Wednesday’s joint practice against the Patriots — not just any regular jet sweep, but a jet sweep to a tight end. And a rookie tight end, at that, who stands 6 feet 6 inches and 253 pounds. Luke Musgrave is special, and the Packers seem hell-bent on making the most out of him.

Can anyone else recall the last time there was a TE running Jet sweeps in earnest in the NFL? Just the fact that Lafleur even has this in the playbook for him is bonkers/notable

Tucker Kraft may end up being a really good TE. Unfortunately for him... it's really looking like he's landed on a team with an even better one.

I can't stand "journalism" like this. I own Musgrave, but he's a 2nd round pick with almost no college production, inconsistent hands, and has a long way to go before people should start calling him "special". This type of hyperbole is what I can't stand about the off season. Do you really think there aren't other TE's capable of running jet sweeps? I mean, I am all for Musgrave becoming a special player, but he certainly isn't right now.

[mild]

I can't stand "journalism" like this. I own Musgrave, but he's a 2nd round pick with almost no college production, inconsistent hands, and has a long way to go before people should start calling him "special". This type of hyperbole is what I can't stand about the off season. Do you really think there aren't other TE's capable of running jet sweeps? I mean, I am all for Musgrave becoming a special player, but he certainly isn't right now.

Unsure how much of the article you actually read FF, but I don't think it's anywhere near as egregious as you're making out.

He's clearly a size-speed freak. His measureables are special in their own right, there shouldn't be a problem saying that. The drum beat from camp has been consistent: he's very good, and a mismatch in the passing game.

Some scouts have labeled this TE class as "potentially the best of all time". That might be hyperbole, but it's certainly an impressively deep group - and Musgrave is a part of that. Arguably, the fact that he went ahead of so many other prospects despite his lack of production in college - and pretty high to boot at pick 42 overall - tells us that the NFL clearly thinks a lot of him despite those blemishes.

Looking forward to seeing how he goes as GB's featured TE!

[FantasyFreak]

I can't stand "journalism" like this. I own Musgrave, but he's a 2nd round pick with almost no college production, inconsistent hands, and has a long way to go before people should start calling him "special". This type of hyperbole is what I can't stand about the off season. Do you really think there aren't other TE's capable of running jet sweeps? I mean, I am all for Musgrave becoming a special player, but he certainly isn't right now.

Unsure how much of the article you actually read FF, but I don't think it's anywhere near as egregious as you're making out.

He's clearly a size-speed freak. His measureables are special in their own right, there shouldn't be a problem saying that. The drum beat from camp has been consistent: he's very good, and a mismatch in the passing game.

Some scouts have labeled this TE class as "potentially the best of all time". That might be hyperbole, but it's certainly an impressively deep group - and Musgrave is a part of that. Arguably, the fact that he went ahead of so many other prospects despite his lack of production in college - and pretty high to boot at pick 42 overall - tells us that the NFL clearly thinks a lot of him despite those blemishes.

Looking forward to seeing how he goes as GB's featured TE!

No, I mean the term special. If you call Musgrave "special", you devalue the meaning of the word. That's what I was referring to, in journalism and in terms of hyperbole. I know he's talented, it's why I drafted him, but he's not a "special" player, or prospect, at this point. Kyle Pitts was. Sometimes it doesn't translate into production, the way we want. Vernon Davis, too. I'd gladly take some good production over him being "special".

[Kurtrambis1]

Well it’s fitting that after the FF season that Musgrave and Kraft have essentially the same points in PPR.

73.1 for Musgrave
72.4 for Kraft

At cost, I still believe Kraft was the better pick.

The initial thoughts of Musgrave being injury prone and not a prolific TD producer rang true for this season. But there was no denying he was clearly ahead of Kraft and would have outproduced him if he stayed healthy.

Kraft did show out during the time Musgrave was injured though. He showed better YAC ability and prowess in the run game.

Unfortunately, I think both players limit each other next year (as long as both stay healthy). Packers are well coached and Love is solid so there is hope but I think there will be too many mouths to feed to consistently rely on one or the other.

[tstafford]

Well it’s fitting that after the FF season that Musgrave and Kraft have essentially the same points in PPR.

73.1 for Musgrave
72.4 for Kraft

At cost, I still believe Kraft was the better pick.

The initial thoughts of Musgrave being injury prone and not a prolific TD producer rang true for this season. But there was no denying he was clearly ahead of Kraft and would have outproduced him if he stayed healthy.

Kraft did show out during the time Musgrave was injured though. He showed better YAC ability and prowess in the run game.

Unfortunately, I think both players limit each other next year (as long as both stay healthy). Packers are well coached and Love is solid so there is hope but I think there will be too many mouths to feed to consistently rely on one or the other.

I agree with this and said something similar recently in a thread mostly about Kraft. I don't see how they can both be fantasy relevant. They need to be rostered but I wouldn't count on them as anything more than a TE2.

[Bronco Billy]

Well, we’ve definitely seen that Kraft can play. And there’s been several quotes from coaches that indicate that he’s become a favorite with the staff and his teammates.

I do agree that it’s going to be difficult to determine, at least early on, who the most targeted players are going to be next season. If Love has shown beyond that he is a qualified starter, it’s that he’ll spread the ball around and look to abuse mismatches. Despite throwing for over 3800 yds so far no Packer receiver has gone for 100+ yds until Bo Melton - who was called up from the PS last week - did it yesterday.

[Shcritters]

Fully agreed with the above. Unfortunately, I think one of them is going to have to leave GB to unlock them both, otherwise they’ll cannibalize each other. That or one of them gets injured…

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So before the season started I had some sort of epiphany about TE's and I apparently did this (below). I can't remember exactly what I was doing but Kraft and Schoony must have hit all the marks because I had bolded them. This might be cross-referenced with athleticism which is why Kincaid isn't bolded, but I honestly can't remember. Anyway, Kraft's profile was a lot better than you would assume. And as of right now, he might even be a better bet going forward than Musgrave.


TE Catch Rates in College

Kyle Pitts – 65%
PFF Grade – 96
YPR – 14.9

Dallas Goedert – 69%
PFF Grade – 95
YPR – 16

Mayer – 71%
PFF Grade - 92
YPR – 11.7

Hockenson – 76%
PFF Grade – 90
YPR – 14

Kincaid – 75%
PFF Grade – 90
YPR – 13.2

Darnell Washington – 64%
PFF Grade – 85
YPR – 17.2

Pat Freiermuth – 64%
PFF Grade – 83
YPR – 12.9

Mark Andrews – 68%
PFF Grade – 80
YPR – 16

Laporta – 64%
PFF Grade – 80
YPR – 11.5

Tucker Kraft – 75%
PFF Grade – 79
YPR – 12.2

Noah Fant – 60%
PFF Grade – 77
YPR – 14-15

Schoonmaker – 76%
PFF Grade - 72
YPR – 11

Musgrave – 59%
PFF Grade - 72
YPR – 13.7

Strange – 69%
PFF Grade - 70
YPR – 11

[FantasyFreak]

Kraft had the luck of getting Love through the back half. Just imagine how Musgrave will stretch the seam with Love's development. I think both will be active, but Musgrave is a real big play threat. Kraft is a sold YAC guy, but Musgrave has some legit seam splitting ability, with these young wideouts.

This offense could be super explosive next year.

[tstafford]

Kraft had the luck of getting Love through the back half. Just imagine how Musgrave will stretch the seam with Love's development. I think both will be active, but Musgrave is a real big play threat. Kraft is a sold YAC guy, but Musgrave has some legit seam splitting ability, with these young wideouts.

This offense could be super explosive next year.

That's a good point.

[TheTroll]

Kraft had the luck of getting Love through the back half. Just imagine how Musgrave will stretch the seam with Love's development. I think both will be active, but Musgrave is a real big play threat. Kraft is a sold YAC guy, but Musgrave has some legit seam splitting ability, with these young wideouts.

This offense could be super explosive next year.

That's a good point.

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

[tstafford]

Kraft had the luck of getting Love through the back half. Just imagine how Musgrave will stretch the seam with Love's development. I think both will be active, but Musgrave is a real big play threat. Kraft is a sold YAC guy, but Musgrave has some legit seam splitting ability, with these young wideouts.

This offense could be super explosive next year.

That's a good point.

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

Maybe but it almost feels worse. I've said my piece on Musgrave/Kraft. They don't appear poised to be particularly FF relevant in '24. Outside of the top-15 in redraft ranks for example.

The Kincaid thing seems a little different. The narrative during draft season was that BUF wanted the best pass catcher they could get at that point in the draft and concluded it was Kincaid over the available WRs.

What's frustrating for Kincaid managers is he ended up receiving the 2nd most targets on the team (usually a harbinger of fantasy TE success), caught 80% of the targets BUT suffered from terrible TD rates. He caught 2 on 83 targets whereas Gabe Davis caught 7 on 79! When you look at the targets per snap Kincaid is at 12.6% and Knox is at 7.3%. They clearly prefer Kincaid in the passing game and his results warrant that.

The TD production is what killed him. Through week 17 he is TE8 in receptions, TE13 in yards and TE25 on TDs. The problem is that is xTD is only 2.5 (Dec 26 data so maybe slightly higher now). It's like he's the trap back version of a TE. Empty touches.

I'm holding out hope on Kincaid. I think we'd be a little less upset if he'd caught a few more TDs and if LaPorta hadn't vaulted to TE1 status in dynasty. I'd still be happy to roster him if I could.

[TheTroll]

That's a good point.

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

Maybe but it almost feels worse. I've said my piece on Musgrave/Kraft. They don't appear poised to be particularly FF relevant in '24. Outside of the top-15 in redraft ranks for example.

The Kincaid thing seems a little different. The narrative during draft season was that BUF wanted the best pass catcher they could get at that point in the draft and concluded it was Kincaid over the available WRs.

What's frustrating for Kincaid managers is he ended up receiving the 2nd most targets on the team (usually a harbinger of fantasy TE success), caught 80% of the targets BUT suffered from terrible TD rates. He caught 2 on 83 targets whereas Gabe Davis caught 7 on 79! When you look at the targets per snap Kincaid is at 12.6% and Knox is at 7.3%. They clearly prefer Kincaid in the passing game and his results warrant that.

The TD production is what killed him. Through week 17 he is TE8 in receptions, TE13 in yards and TE25 on TDs. The problem is that is xTD is only 2.5 (Dec 26 data so maybe slightly higher now). It's like he's the trap back version of a TE. Empty touches.

I'm holding out hope on Kincaid. I think we'd be a little less upset if he'd caught a few more TDs and if LaPorta hadn't vaulted to TE1 status in dynasty. I'd still be happy to roster him if I could.

the TD thing is always going to be tougher for a TE when you got a running QB who loves to scramble inside the 10.

[killer_of_giants]

victory laps in august

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Kraft had the luck of getting Love through the back half. Just imagine how Musgrave will stretch the seam with Love's development. I think both will be active, but Musgrave is a real big play threat. Kraft is a sold YAC guy, but Musgrave has some legit seam splitting ability, with these young wideouts.

This offense could be super explosive next year.

That's a good point.

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

Yes and no. Kincaid will be the guy. Knox is not the receiving TE they want, otherwise he would have been used more in the past. Musgrave and Kraft are more equally talented imo, which is going to create a TE by committee I think. Whereas In Buffalo, I think the job is Kincaids to lose.